Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09BRIDGETOWN765
2009-12-16 19:58:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Bridgetown
Cable title:
Dominica's Opposition Leader Cautiously Optimistic Despite
how-toVZCZCXYZ0308 RR RUEHWEB DE RUEHWN #0765/01 3501958 ZNY CCCCC ZZH R 161958Z DEC 09 FM AMEMBASSY BRIDGETOWN TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0134 INFO RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL RUEHWN/AMEMBASSY BRIDGETOWN
C O N F I D E N T I A L BRIDGETOWN 000765
SIPDIS
STATE FOR WHA/CAR
E.O. 12958: DECL: 2019/12/16
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KDEM XL
SUBJECT: Dominica's Opposition Leader Cautiously Optimistic Despite
Flood of Foreign Money Behind Government
DERIVED FROM: DBHardt
------------
Summary
------------
C O N F I D E N T I A L BRIDGETOWN 000765
SIPDIS
STATE FOR WHA/CAR
E.O. 12958: DECL: 2019/12/16
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KDEM XL
SUBJECT: Dominica's Opposition Leader Cautiously Optimistic Despite
Flood of Foreign Money Behind Government
DERIVED FROM: DBHardt
--------------
Summary
--------------
1. (C) Dominica's main opposition United Workers Party (UWP) leader
Ron Green was cautiously optimistic in a call on the Charge in
Bridgetown December 11, a week ahead of December 18 General
Elections. Green lamented the role that outside money was playing
in the election, especially by giving the government the ability to
fly in Diaspora voters who could turn the tide in a series of tight
constituency races that may be decided by ten votes or less. Green
underscored that while jobs and corruption were key campaign
issues, the UWP message is clearly aimed at PM Skerrit's leadership
failures and efforts to enrich himself. Green welcomed the OAS
observer mission, but believed it should be deployed earlier in the
process and not in the final days of the campaign.
-------------- --------------
Cash for Christmas ... and a Vote in Return
-------------- --------------
2. (C) Green told the Charge that cash payments have been given to
voters as an inducement to vote for the incumbent Dominica Labor
Party (DLP). Green estimated the DLP's campaign budget to be $9
million USD, about twenty times the resources of the UWP. He
alleged that such a massive disparity has allowed the DLP to
charter planes, organize elaborate advertising campaigns, and bribe
voters. The Diaspora voters are a particular concern, he
reiterated, as key districts are being targeted to receive the bulk
of those votes. With the Castle Bruce constituency being decided
by one vote in 2005, for example, the approximately 800 voters
being flown in could alter key district voting tallies.
3. (C) Green repeated a theme heard numerous times about the role
of the Freedom Party to act as spoiler. The Freedom Party had
allied with DLP in the previous two elections, forming a coalition
government in 2000, but it has been frustrated with the current
leadership. While it is hesitant to openly partner with UWP for
fear of even further marginalizing their status, they are partners
behind the scenes. Green maintains that the open breakup of the
Freedom-DLP alliance is pulling significant votes away from DLP.
While the Freedom Party does not have any seats in parliament, and
are predicted to only have a real shot at one district, they make
up a bulk of the undecided voters. Due to the narrow margin in
many districts, the Freedom candidate could pull away enough votes
to give UWP a plurality and the seat.
-------------- ---
OAS Monitoring: More than Just Voting
-------------- ---
4. (C) While welcoming the OAS presence, Green expressed concern
that the Organization of American States (OAS) observer mission
would be too brief to really investigate any possible wrongdoings.
Observers, including an embassy poloff, are due to arrive in
Dominica on December 16 and observe the election on December 18.
With the allegations of vote-buying, restricted media access, and
chartered flights, Green hoped that the OAS team would be able to
investigate more than just the voting process on election day. The
Charge acknowledged these limitations, noting that the process of
creating voting lists was also a crucial part of the election.
Green hoped to see the day when observers are able to stay in
country for 3-4 weeks to address these issues.
--------------
UWP Message
--------------
5. (C) To move beyond Green's soliloquy against Skerrit, the Charge
pressed him to articulate his party's vision for Dominica that he
was taking to voters. Green said the UWP's main messages were
about jobs and corruption. Regarding the economy, Green stated
that Dominicans have a tradition of hard work and just need the
right opportunity for jobs. The agriculture and tourism industries
in particular have underperformed under the DLP and need to be
reformed, he claimed. Green said he would focus on geothermal
energy, eco-tourism and private sector growth as the main pillars.
Corruption and integrity have traditionally been key election
issues, having cost the UWP power in 2000, and the UWP, Green
promised, won't stray too far from this script in attacking
Skerrit. Green claimed that tax evasion, Skerrit's limited
publicly declared assets compared to his actual assets, and the
Layou River scandal (septel) as the most salient cases of
impropriety that he would seek to exploit in the short campaign.
--------------
Comment
--------------
6. (C) It is apparent that the UWP believes that Skerrit is
vulnerable, and they are focusing their attacks directly on his
performance and ethics. Green's lukewarm assessment of the OAS
presence is one we hear echoed in most countries by opposition
parties, who believe that its limited mandate misses key aspects of
electoral corruption and voter registration issues. Despite his
misgivings, Green remained upbeat that the opposition would have a
good chance of winning, but is concerned that the election could
swing on Diaspora voters. End Comment.
--------------
Bio Note: Ron Green
--------------
7. (C) Ron Green is a competent and seemingly honest politician who
was unexpectedly thrust into his role in 2008 with the unexpected
resignation and flight of former leader Earl Williams on
allegations of having stolen money from a client. For many years,
he was a political activist whose NGO's had a strong leftist
orientation. While he lacks charisma, he has a strong commitment
to improving life in Dominica through providing jobs and reducing
the pernicious effects of corruption. Green is likely to continue
relations with both China and Venezuela, but has been troubled by
the lack of transparency in these bilateral relationships, and
shares a healthy skepticism of the motivations of Chavez. Green is
occasionally overshadowed by his more celebrated colleague the
former PM Edison James who some allege still calls the shots.
HARDT
SIPDIS
STATE FOR WHA/CAR
E.O. 12958: DECL: 2019/12/16
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KDEM XL
SUBJECT: Dominica's Opposition Leader Cautiously Optimistic Despite
Flood of Foreign Money Behind Government
DERIVED FROM: DBHardt
--------------
Summary
--------------
1. (C) Dominica's main opposition United Workers Party (UWP) leader
Ron Green was cautiously optimistic in a call on the Charge in
Bridgetown December 11, a week ahead of December 18 General
Elections. Green lamented the role that outside money was playing
in the election, especially by giving the government the ability to
fly in Diaspora voters who could turn the tide in a series of tight
constituency races that may be decided by ten votes or less. Green
underscored that while jobs and corruption were key campaign
issues, the UWP message is clearly aimed at PM Skerrit's leadership
failures and efforts to enrich himself. Green welcomed the OAS
observer mission, but believed it should be deployed earlier in the
process and not in the final days of the campaign.
-------------- --------------
Cash for Christmas ... and a Vote in Return
-------------- --------------
2. (C) Green told the Charge that cash payments have been given to
voters as an inducement to vote for the incumbent Dominica Labor
Party (DLP). Green estimated the DLP's campaign budget to be $9
million USD, about twenty times the resources of the UWP. He
alleged that such a massive disparity has allowed the DLP to
charter planes, organize elaborate advertising campaigns, and bribe
voters. The Diaspora voters are a particular concern, he
reiterated, as key districts are being targeted to receive the bulk
of those votes. With the Castle Bruce constituency being decided
by one vote in 2005, for example, the approximately 800 voters
being flown in could alter key district voting tallies.
3. (C) Green repeated a theme heard numerous times about the role
of the Freedom Party to act as spoiler. The Freedom Party had
allied with DLP in the previous two elections, forming a coalition
government in 2000, but it has been frustrated with the current
leadership. While it is hesitant to openly partner with UWP for
fear of even further marginalizing their status, they are partners
behind the scenes. Green maintains that the open breakup of the
Freedom-DLP alliance is pulling significant votes away from DLP.
While the Freedom Party does not have any seats in parliament, and
are predicted to only have a real shot at one district, they make
up a bulk of the undecided voters. Due to the narrow margin in
many districts, the Freedom candidate could pull away enough votes
to give UWP a plurality and the seat.
-------------- ---
OAS Monitoring: More than Just Voting
-------------- ---
4. (C) While welcoming the OAS presence, Green expressed concern
that the Organization of American States (OAS) observer mission
would be too brief to really investigate any possible wrongdoings.
Observers, including an embassy poloff, are due to arrive in
Dominica on December 16 and observe the election on December 18.
With the allegations of vote-buying, restricted media access, and
chartered flights, Green hoped that the OAS team would be able to
investigate more than just the voting process on election day. The
Charge acknowledged these limitations, noting that the process of
creating voting lists was also a crucial part of the election.
Green hoped to see the day when observers are able to stay in
country for 3-4 weeks to address these issues.
--------------
UWP Message
--------------
5. (C) To move beyond Green's soliloquy against Skerrit, the Charge
pressed him to articulate his party's vision for Dominica that he
was taking to voters. Green said the UWP's main messages were
about jobs and corruption. Regarding the economy, Green stated
that Dominicans have a tradition of hard work and just need the
right opportunity for jobs. The agriculture and tourism industries
in particular have underperformed under the DLP and need to be
reformed, he claimed. Green said he would focus on geothermal
energy, eco-tourism and private sector growth as the main pillars.
Corruption and integrity have traditionally been key election
issues, having cost the UWP power in 2000, and the UWP, Green
promised, won't stray too far from this script in attacking
Skerrit. Green claimed that tax evasion, Skerrit's limited
publicly declared assets compared to his actual assets, and the
Layou River scandal (septel) as the most salient cases of
impropriety that he would seek to exploit in the short campaign.
--------------
Comment
--------------
6. (C) It is apparent that the UWP believes that Skerrit is
vulnerable, and they are focusing their attacks directly on his
performance and ethics. Green's lukewarm assessment of the OAS
presence is one we hear echoed in most countries by opposition
parties, who believe that its limited mandate misses key aspects of
electoral corruption and voter registration issues. Despite his
misgivings, Green remained upbeat that the opposition would have a
good chance of winning, but is concerned that the election could
swing on Diaspora voters. End Comment.
--------------
Bio Note: Ron Green
--------------
7. (C) Ron Green is a competent and seemingly honest politician who
was unexpectedly thrust into his role in 2008 with the unexpected
resignation and flight of former leader Earl Williams on
allegations of having stolen money from a client. For many years,
he was a political activist whose NGO's had a strong leftist
orientation. While he lacks charisma, he has a strong commitment
to improving life in Dominica through providing jobs and reducing
the pernicious effects of corruption. Green is likely to continue
relations with both China and Venezuela, but has been troubled by
the lack of transparency in these bilateral relationships, and
shares a healthy skepticism of the motivations of Chavez. Green is
occasionally overshadowed by his more celebrated colleague the
former PM Edison James who some allege still calls the shots.
HARDT