Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09BRIDGETOWN753
2009-12-10 12:39:00
SECRET//NOFORN
Embassy Bridgetown
Cable title:
(C-AL9-01941) LEADERSHIP PROFILE: ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA PM
how-toVZCZCXYZ0000 RR RUEHWEB DE RUEHWN #0753/01 3441239 ZNY SSSSS ZZH R 101239Z DEC 09 FM AMEMBASSY BRIDGETOWN TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0106 INFO EC CARICOM COLLECTIVE RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
S E C R E T BRIDGETOWN 000753
SIPDIS
NOFORN
AMEMBASSY BRIDGETOWN PASS TO AMEMBASSY GRENADA
E.O. 12958: DECL: 2019/12/10
TAGS: PINR PGOV PREL VE XL
SUBJECT: (C-AL9-01941) LEADERSHIP PROFILE: ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA PM
BALDWIN SPENCER
CLASSIFIED BY: D. B Hardt, Charge d'Affaires a.i., DOS; REASON:
1.4(B),(D)
-------
Summary
-------
S E C R E T BRIDGETOWN 000753
SIPDIS
NOFORN
AMEMBASSY BRIDGETOWN PASS TO AMEMBASSY GRENADA
E.O. 12958: DECL: 2019/12/10
TAGS: PINR PGOV PREL VE XL
SUBJECT: (C-AL9-01941) LEADERSHIP PROFILE: ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA PM
BALDWIN SPENCER
CLASSIFIED BY: D. B Hardt, Charge d'Affaires a.i., DOS; REASON:
1.4(B),(D)
--------------
Summary
--------------
1. (C/NF) Prime Minister Baldwin Spencer has gradually grown into
his role as the dominant figure in Antiguan politics and, with his
recent electoral victory, looks set to remain in power through
2014. Despite his decision to join ALBA and PetroCaribe and the
fawning pro-ALBA rhetoric it has occasionally fostered, Spencer is
a canny politician who will continue to play to both sides with
hopes of increasing aid to his financially strapped country.
Spencer has made no attempts to alter Antigua's democratic
foundations or its close ties to the U.S., nor has he given any
sign that he is inclined to do so in the future. End Summary.
--------------
Man of the People
--------------
2. (C/NF) From 1989 until 1999, Baldwin Spencer and one MP
representing Barbuda were the only members of parliament who were
not also members of the then-governing Antigua Labour Party. After
the 1994 elections, capitalizing on growing frustration with an
entrenched and increasingly corrupt ALP, Spencer merged his United
National Democratic Party with other independent parties in the
country to form the United Progressive Party. As the only sitting
member of parliament going into the 1999 election, he was "the"
leader of the opposition in parliament and the natural choice to
lead the new party. The newly formed UPP took four seats in the
1999 elections, and then, in 2004, finally swept into power, taking
12 of the 17 seats in parliament. Outside of a brief period
between 1976-1980, this was the first time that a party other than
the ALP, controlled by the powerful Bird family, had been in charge
of the country.
3. (C/NF) A labor organizer by background, Spencer has a common
man appeal that endears him well to the average Antiguan voter.
Not widely considered to be an intellectual, he is a polished
orator who likes to speak in personal vignettes. Spencer is a
passionate devotee of carnival, and has long spearheaded one of
Antigua's largest carnival bands. He routinely dresses up and
"plays mas," earning considerable goodwill among Antiguans in the
process. Spencer is known for dressing in traditional garb even at
formal occasions.
--------------
Still Sitting on the Fence?
--------------
4. (C/NF) As the leader of a nascent coalition of parties that had
been in the political wilderness for so many years, Spencer was
slow to put his personal stamp on his party and on the overall
direction of the country. However, his power over the party and
the direction of the country has grown significantly in recent
years. This is particularly true in foreign policy. Spencer's
past as a labor organizer and a leftist-populist have been fairly
consistently reflected in his public remarks and recent activity
with regional powers. He has continued a long-standing tradition
of cooperation with and support for Cuba, which benefited Antigua
in the form of medical assistance from Cuba -- both training of
physicians and free eye operations under Operacion Milagro. More
recently, Spencer has appeared to move closer to Venezuela, joining
both PetroCaribe and ALBA -- and becoming a vocal advocate for the
latter, including in his address to the United Nations General
Assembly. In his address to the UN General Assembly Spencer said,
"Antigua and Barbuda encourages the Community of Nations to explore
alternative models such as that represented by ALBA. With its
foundations principles of complementarity as an alternative to
competition; solidarity as opposed to domination; cooperation as a
replacement for exploitation; and respect for sovereignty rather
than corporate rule, ALBA represents an innovation and viable model
of integration and development."
--------------
Pragmatist at Heart
--------------
5. (C/NF) Most educated Antiguans are suspicious of Iran, Libya
and particularly Venezuela, and warn us of their fears about the
direction that Spencer is taking the country. While some of these
fears are genuinely felt, in many cases they are generated more
from opportunism on the part of opposition figures eager to
increase U.S. attention to Antigua and sympathy with the ALP, or,
in the case of government figures like National Security Minister
Errol Cort, an attempt to encourage the U.S. to increase
development and security assistance." Spencer's rhetoric does
little to calm those fears, whether genuine or not, as he tends to
be critical of the West and its traditional institutions and
supportive, and occasionally fawning, towards Venezuela and Cuba in
particular. Behind the rhetoric, Spencer's foreign policy
decision-making remains calculating and pragmatic. His decisions
to join PetroCaribe and ALBA are driven by the very real, and
increasingly desperate, need for financial support. Antigua, like
many Small Island Developing States (SIDS) in the region will pay
lip-service to anyone writing them checks. With the Stanford
scandal decimating Antigua's offshore finance sector, and
employment numbers and tourism down, it would be politically risky
to be seen turning down offers of assistance from any quarter.
6. (C/NF) Spencer and his government have been receptive partners
with the USG on a broad range of issues. The Prime Minister has
publicly voiced strong support for the Obama Administration, and
highlighted that support by naming Antigua's highest mountain peak
in President Obama's honor. Support for the President is very
strong throughout Antiguan society, and it is good politics to be
seen to be close to the United States. Spencer's government has
also actively cultivated relationships with key members of the U.S.
congress. During recent Independence celebrations, the Prime
Minister went out of his way to invite the Charge to join him and
the Governor General at the head table, along with Ambassadors from
Venezuela and South Africa.
7. (C/NF) We received excellent support from every level of
government and public praise from the highest levels for the visit
of the USNS Comfort, which provided medical services to roughly
one-third of the population of Antigua. Spencer himself visited
the ship and turned up for medical care during the visit - a sign
of his support for this tangible delivery of support for the
Antigua people. We have received similar support on WTO issues, as
the GOAB has not only chosen not to "cash in" the favorable award
it received from the WTO over internet gambling, but in fact took
swift action to shut down an online video pirating site that tried
to establish itself in that country following the award. Despite
the ALBA agreement, including a clause committing all members to
reject foreign military bases on their soil, the GOAB in September
renewed a five-year agreement to host a USAF satellite tracking
station. The GOAB has worked closely with the FBI on the Stanford
case, agreeing to extradite its SEC chair-equivalent to face fraud
charges in the U.S., and the government is working with us to
finalize a Proliferation Security Initiative shipboarding
agreement.
--------------
Comment: The Bottom Line
--------------
7. (C/NF) As the leader of a debt-burdened, vulnerable
micro-economy in the midst of a global recession, Spencer can ill
afford to turn his nose up at assistance from any quarter. Whether
such aid materializes fully or not (and in the case of Venezuela,
it appears most often "not"),even the smallest contributions help
secure the UPP political breathing room in the short term. Couple
this need with Spencer's own instinctive affinity for
leftist-populist rhetoric, and a casual observer could conclude
that Antigua might be moving closer to Hugo Chavez's leftist
regional orbit. Spencer's actions, however, especially the UPP's
solid record of cooperation with the USG, make clear that the
rhetoric is part of a balancing act intended to secure support from
non-traditional partners. Absent a significant infusion of support
from the USG, Spencer has little incentive to change this public
tune. But, as a pragmatist, he is unlikely to risk concrete
support from the U.S. to secure promises from Venezuela.
HARDT
SIPDIS
NOFORN
AMEMBASSY BRIDGETOWN PASS TO AMEMBASSY GRENADA
E.O. 12958: DECL: 2019/12/10
TAGS: PINR PGOV PREL VE XL
SUBJECT: (C-AL9-01941) LEADERSHIP PROFILE: ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA PM
BALDWIN SPENCER
CLASSIFIED BY: D. B Hardt, Charge d'Affaires a.i., DOS; REASON:
1.4(B),(D)
--------------
Summary
--------------
1. (C/NF) Prime Minister Baldwin Spencer has gradually grown into
his role as the dominant figure in Antiguan politics and, with his
recent electoral victory, looks set to remain in power through
2014. Despite his decision to join ALBA and PetroCaribe and the
fawning pro-ALBA rhetoric it has occasionally fostered, Spencer is
a canny politician who will continue to play to both sides with
hopes of increasing aid to his financially strapped country.
Spencer has made no attempts to alter Antigua's democratic
foundations or its close ties to the U.S., nor has he given any
sign that he is inclined to do so in the future. End Summary.
--------------
Man of the People
--------------
2. (C/NF) From 1989 until 1999, Baldwin Spencer and one MP
representing Barbuda were the only members of parliament who were
not also members of the then-governing Antigua Labour Party. After
the 1994 elections, capitalizing on growing frustration with an
entrenched and increasingly corrupt ALP, Spencer merged his United
National Democratic Party with other independent parties in the
country to form the United Progressive Party. As the only sitting
member of parliament going into the 1999 election, he was "the"
leader of the opposition in parliament and the natural choice to
lead the new party. The newly formed UPP took four seats in the
1999 elections, and then, in 2004, finally swept into power, taking
12 of the 17 seats in parliament. Outside of a brief period
between 1976-1980, this was the first time that a party other than
the ALP, controlled by the powerful Bird family, had been in charge
of the country.
3. (C/NF) A labor organizer by background, Spencer has a common
man appeal that endears him well to the average Antiguan voter.
Not widely considered to be an intellectual, he is a polished
orator who likes to speak in personal vignettes. Spencer is a
passionate devotee of carnival, and has long spearheaded one of
Antigua's largest carnival bands. He routinely dresses up and
"plays mas," earning considerable goodwill among Antiguans in the
process. Spencer is known for dressing in traditional garb even at
formal occasions.
--------------
Still Sitting on the Fence?
--------------
4. (C/NF) As the leader of a nascent coalition of parties that had
been in the political wilderness for so many years, Spencer was
slow to put his personal stamp on his party and on the overall
direction of the country. However, his power over the party and
the direction of the country has grown significantly in recent
years. This is particularly true in foreign policy. Spencer's
past as a labor organizer and a leftist-populist have been fairly
consistently reflected in his public remarks and recent activity
with regional powers. He has continued a long-standing tradition
of cooperation with and support for Cuba, which benefited Antigua
in the form of medical assistance from Cuba -- both training of
physicians and free eye operations under Operacion Milagro. More
recently, Spencer has appeared to move closer to Venezuela, joining
both PetroCaribe and ALBA -- and becoming a vocal advocate for the
latter, including in his address to the United Nations General
Assembly. In his address to the UN General Assembly Spencer said,
"Antigua and Barbuda encourages the Community of Nations to explore
alternative models such as that represented by ALBA. With its
foundations principles of complementarity as an alternative to
competition; solidarity as opposed to domination; cooperation as a
replacement for exploitation; and respect for sovereignty rather
than corporate rule, ALBA represents an innovation and viable model
of integration and development."
--------------
Pragmatist at Heart
--------------
5. (C/NF) Most educated Antiguans are suspicious of Iran, Libya
and particularly Venezuela, and warn us of their fears about the
direction that Spencer is taking the country. While some of these
fears are genuinely felt, in many cases they are generated more
from opportunism on the part of opposition figures eager to
increase U.S. attention to Antigua and sympathy with the ALP, or,
in the case of government figures like National Security Minister
Errol Cort, an attempt to encourage the U.S. to increase
development and security assistance." Spencer's rhetoric does
little to calm those fears, whether genuine or not, as he tends to
be critical of the West and its traditional institutions and
supportive, and occasionally fawning, towards Venezuela and Cuba in
particular. Behind the rhetoric, Spencer's foreign policy
decision-making remains calculating and pragmatic. His decisions
to join PetroCaribe and ALBA are driven by the very real, and
increasingly desperate, need for financial support. Antigua, like
many Small Island Developing States (SIDS) in the region will pay
lip-service to anyone writing them checks. With the Stanford
scandal decimating Antigua's offshore finance sector, and
employment numbers and tourism down, it would be politically risky
to be seen turning down offers of assistance from any quarter.
6. (C/NF) Spencer and his government have been receptive partners
with the USG on a broad range of issues. The Prime Minister has
publicly voiced strong support for the Obama Administration, and
highlighted that support by naming Antigua's highest mountain peak
in President Obama's honor. Support for the President is very
strong throughout Antiguan society, and it is good politics to be
seen to be close to the United States. Spencer's government has
also actively cultivated relationships with key members of the U.S.
congress. During recent Independence celebrations, the Prime
Minister went out of his way to invite the Charge to join him and
the Governor General at the head table, along with Ambassadors from
Venezuela and South Africa.
7. (C/NF) We received excellent support from every level of
government and public praise from the highest levels for the visit
of the USNS Comfort, which provided medical services to roughly
one-third of the population of Antigua. Spencer himself visited
the ship and turned up for medical care during the visit - a sign
of his support for this tangible delivery of support for the
Antigua people. We have received similar support on WTO issues, as
the GOAB has not only chosen not to "cash in" the favorable award
it received from the WTO over internet gambling, but in fact took
swift action to shut down an online video pirating site that tried
to establish itself in that country following the award. Despite
the ALBA agreement, including a clause committing all members to
reject foreign military bases on their soil, the GOAB in September
renewed a five-year agreement to host a USAF satellite tracking
station. The GOAB has worked closely with the FBI on the Stanford
case, agreeing to extradite its SEC chair-equivalent to face fraud
charges in the U.S., and the government is working with us to
finalize a Proliferation Security Initiative shipboarding
agreement.
--------------
Comment: The Bottom Line
--------------
7. (C/NF) As the leader of a debt-burdened, vulnerable
micro-economy in the midst of a global recession, Spencer can ill
afford to turn his nose up at assistance from any quarter. Whether
such aid materializes fully or not (and in the case of Venezuela,
it appears most often "not"),even the smallest contributions help
secure the UPP political breathing room in the short term. Couple
this need with Spencer's own instinctive affinity for
leftist-populist rhetoric, and a casual observer could conclude
that Antigua might be moving closer to Hugo Chavez's leftist
regional orbit. Spencer's actions, however, especially the UPP's
solid record of cooperation with the USG, make clear that the
rhetoric is part of a balancing act intended to secure support from
non-traditional partners. Absent a significant infusion of support
from the USG, Spencer has little incentive to change this public
tune. But, as a pragmatist, he is unlikely to risk concrete
support from the U.S. to secure promises from Venezuela.
HARDT