Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09BRIDGETOWN745
2009-12-04 21:52:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Bridgetown
Cable title:  

Dominica Election Primer: The Bolivarian Candidate

Tags:  PGOV PREL EAID ECON XL VE 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXYZ0000
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHWN #0745/01 3382152
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 042152Z DEC 09
FM AMEMBASSY BRIDGETOWN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0088
INFO EC CARICOM COLLECTIVE
C O N F I D E N T I A L BRIDGETOWN 000745 

SIPDIS
AMEMBASSY BRIDGETOWN PASS TO AMEMBASSY GRENADA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2019/12/04
TAGS: PGOV PREL EAID ECON XL VE
SUBJECT: Dominica Election Primer: The Bolivarian Candidate

DERIVED FROM: DSCG 05-1 B, D

-------------

Summary

-------------



C O N F I D E N T I A L BRIDGETOWN 000745

SIPDIS
AMEMBASSY BRIDGETOWN PASS TO AMEMBASSY GRENADA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2019/12/04
TAGS: PGOV PREL EAID ECON XL VE
SUBJECT: Dominica Election Primer: The Bolivarian Candidate

DERIVED FROM: DSCG 05-1 B, D

--------------

Summary

--------------




1. (C) With high unemployment and government corruption dominating
election debates, Dominica's Prime Minister Roosevelt Skerrit has
decided to take a gamble on his political career, betting that he
can ride a wave of financial support from China and Venezuela to
overcome his government's poor showing on economic issues and
widespread allegations of corruption that have come to plague his
administration. Meanwhile, an exodus of capable members of the
government and the possible defection of high profile leaders from
the ruling party could make this election closer than anticipated.



--------------

The Economy: A Glass One Quarter Full?

--------------




2. (C) As Dominicans head to the polls December 18, jobs and
integrity in government remain the key themes. The Dominican
economy in certain ways resembles the current U.S. experience of
better than expected GDP growth rates, coupled with surging
unemployment. The parallels also extend to a certain class of
individuals profiting during the recession -- in Dominica, that
class is represented by anyone involved in government contracts
with Venezuelan or Chinese investment projects. Prime Minister
Skerrit has attempted to paint an opportunistically rosy picture of
the local economy, noting that Dominica has been less heavily
impacted than its neighbors by the declining disposable income of
American, British and Canadian tourists and the concomitant drop in
investment dollars for tourist projects. However, he has neglected
to point out the logical corollary: that because Dominica has been
consistently unable to attract interest from tourism providers or
consumers they have endured lower growth rates than virtually every
other Eastern Caribbean country over the past five years. Skerrit
has been less willing to talk about the swelling ranks of the
unemployed or the continuing burden of a high cost of living that
has endured despite promises of relief as a result of reduced

energy rates from the Petrocaribe program. In fact, in his 2009
National Day address (septel),Skerrit made a point of avoiding the
economy, saying the day should be about social achievements
instead.




3. (C) In other venues, the PM has often pointed to large-scale
development projects, such as the Oil Storage and Distribution
Facility or the Cricket stadium, as signs that the economy is
moving forward. The reality is that few of these projects
contribute much in terms of jobs or do much to shore up the
country's lagging infrastructure of roads or ports, not to mention
the disrepair of electrical lines and urban sewerage and drainage.
Venezuela is assisting in improving the airport, but despite the
heavy cost of approximately US$60 million, it will still not be
able to land widebody jets, which is one of the chief obstacles to
attracting tourists and was a primary goal of the expansion
project. Moreover, the airport construction is doing little to
improve local prospects, as most of the labor is imported from
Venezuela along with all the construction equipment. Other
examples of Venezuelan "largesse" appear similarly misguided --
such as the construction of a coffee processing facility before
coffee production has been expanded sufficiently to utilize it.



--------------

Corruption Charges Dog PM

--------------




4. (C) As the economy flits among uncoordinated infrastructure
projects of dubious benefit, multiple corruption cases have
received increasing media coverage. In every case, there are
allegations that Skerrit has abused his privileges and is

benefiting financially from his position. Journalist Lennox Linton
has been the most proactive in investigating the government, and he
has expressed concern not only with the theft, but the "blatant
nature in which it is done." The most prominent focus of corruption
charges is Skerrit's personal residence, whose construction costs
appear to be far in excess of his official assets. In addition,
allegations of no bid contracts awarded to the brother of Minister
of Trade Collin McIntyre for garbage bins and fertilizer have
caused a stir, as the prices charged were multiples above the
normal cost. The economic citizenship program as well as the sale
of diplomatic passports and Ambassadorial rank have all occurred in
a less than transparent manner, with allegations that some of the
money charged for these programs makes its way to Skerrit. Adding
to the rumors are recent claims that Skerrit is the owner of a
multi-million USD villa complex that houses Ross University (an
American Medical School) faculty - a property he could not possibly
afford to purchase on his public sector salary and limited declared
assets.




5. (C) Skerrit's reaction to the most recent allegation has been
to turn to Tony Astaphan, his personal lawyer, to answer questions
from opposition and the press. According to opposition contacts,
Skerrit uses official travel and sick days to avoid answering
questions in Parliament about these cases. Skerrit has also
attempted to use legal means to clamp down on inquiries into these
alleged abuses, suing the Times Newspaper for slander based on
their article "Million dollar assets, $5,000 (2,000 USD) salary".
In filing the case, Skerrit looks to be taking a page form the
political playbook of his regional mentor, St. Vincent PM Ralph
Gonsalves, who routinely sues any entity that publicly criticizes
or questions his policies or activities.



--------------

Skerrit at the Center

--------------




6. (C) Skerrit is the center of the campaign on both sides. His
individual popularity derives from his youth, charisma, and
populist rhetoric. His alleged ability to extract money from both
Venezuela and China gives him a campaign war chest that is believed
by many to be several times the size of the opposition's finances.
Despite his personal popularity, detractors insist that Skerrit's
weakness is that he has started to believe his own hype and this is
causing a rift in the party. A number of high-profile ministers
have abandoned ship, due to either the distaste of being associated
with corruption, or (some accuse) frustration that Skerrit is
taking the lion's share from these deals and just leaving the
crumbs behind.




7. (C) The most notable "defection" has been Minister of Foreign
Affairs Vince Henderson, once seen as an up and coming leader but,
since having a public disagreement with Skerrit, has now decided to
abandon his seat in St. Joseph. Dominica's UN Ambassador and
former campaign manager Crispin Gregoire, who enjoys immense
support in his home district of Grand Bay, has been another
casualty. Gregoire, who some say is one of the few people in the
party with the ability to challenge Skerrit for Party leadership,
was ultimately passed over in favor of Justina Charles, wife of ex
PM Pierre Charles, who has name recognition but little else in
terms of government experience. In outlining the election in a
recent conversation with poloff, Gregoire classified the fixed
voters as 40 percent for UWP and 45 percent for DLP, with the
future government needing to reach swing voters. In all, Skerrit
has replaced 9 of the 21 candidates for MP seats in the upcoming
election, with the majority being filled with 'yes men', candidates
who lack their own gravitas but can be relied on to support
Skerrit. Local political analysts see this tactic as driven as
much by a desire to remove possible challengers in the party as a
desire to build a tighter party core. And they point out further
that, should the ruling party win with such a slate, the new
government would be packed with unqualified lackeys who would be
unable to do a credible job running ministerial portfolios.




8. (C) On the opposition side, the United Workers Party is the
most prominent group, and the only one that will challenge across

the whole country. The UWP is led by Ron Green, a competent and
honest, but less than charismatic, leader. Green was selected
hastily last year, after prior opposition leader Earl Williams went
into hiding in the U.S. after being accused of stealing large sums
of money from a client of his law practice. With a corruption
shadow thus also dogging the opposition, making integrity a key
plank is proving a difficult sell. The only other notable
opposition party is the Freedom Party, the party of now deceased
former Prime Minister Eugenia Charles, who was best known for her
support of President Reagan during the U.S. invasion of Grenada.
Judith Pestaina is the current leader of this once-dominant party,
which has seen its influence wither after forming a coalition
government with the DLP in 2000. The departure of Charles Savarin
and Julius Timothy to the DLP in Ministerial appointments has also
depleted the Freedom Party's pool of qualified candidates. While
the Freedom Party is not expected to win many seats outright, FP
supporters may form the bulk of the "swing" vote in Dominica, and
as such would seem to favor gains by the opposition, to whom FP has
grown closer as Skerrit has become more populist.



--------------

The Venezuela Factor

--------------




9. (C) Venezuela is a key talking point in the race for both the
government and the opposition. The government touts Venezuelan
assistance programs as a result of its international diplomatic
successes, while the opposition often clumsily overplays the hand
of Venezuelan imperialism in the region. Venezuela does provide a
number of good projects for Dominica, but only through the official
channels, as there are no substantive connections in tourism or
business between the two countries. Chavez's most significant
influence is in providing a blueprint for populist demagoguery and,
if believed, under the table campaign contributions. According to
sources in UWP, the government has chartered multiple planes to
bring in Diaspora voters, at a cost of over half a million USD and
in direct violation of local campaign laws. When talking to the
international community -- and seeking financial support -- the
opposition has often argued that Skerrit is consciously turning
Dominica into a pawn of Venezuela's in that country's game of
developing its Bolivarian alternative to traditional Hemispheric
cooperation. The opposition has claimed (inter alia) that ALBA is
a military plot and that despite Dominica lacking a military, they
could provide a staging area for incursions into the Caribbean.
Recently, though, the UWP message to the public has changed, as the
party's UK-based campaign consultant informed them that Venezuela
bashing does not play well to local constituents who are more
interested in jobs. The UWP has even gone on record affirming its
support of continuing an amicable relationship with Venezuela.



--------------

Comment

--------------




10. (C) While Skerrit holds the advantage of incumbency, this has
not been a winning hand in recent elections in the region. If the
election turns more on jobs and integrity, it could be closer than
predicted. This election was initially projected as a relatively
easy Skerrit victory, but party defections haven taken some luster
off of the DLP. Gregoire would have been a game changer in the
election, by making a high-profile split with Skerrit. But even
the serious contemplation of such an act shows that chinks are
appearing in his armor. The seats in nine "swing" districts are
all considered to be in play. If four of those seats shift, then
Dominica faces the possibility of a tie, where a lone independent
MP could have significant leverage over the formation of a new
government.




11. (C) From the U.S. perspective, Skerrit has been one of our
least reliable allies in the region, on many occasions even
foregoing agreed to appearances with our Ambassador and avoiding
major events where the U.S. is providing support and assistance to
Dominica. He has styled himself self-consciously after Chavez,

even donning Chavez characteristic bright red shirts in official
appearances and lavishing praise on the Venezuelan president.
While our ties at the working level remain sound, we have faced
difficulty getting high-level backing for Dominican participation
in training programs. An opposition victory would likely distance
Dominica somewhat from the Venezuelan ideological embrace, but as a
practical matter it would be difficult for even a UWP government to
turn its back on promises of assistance from ABLA and Petrocaribe.
With half of the OECS member states now party to both associations,
there is plenty of political maneuverability for the UWP to both
maintain its political independence while not leaving any potential
Venezuelan money on the table.
HARDT