ST. VINCENT SET TO LAUNCH MAJOR CONSTITUTIONAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRIDGETOWN 000615

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/06/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR XL
SUBJECT: ST. VINCENT SET TO LAUNCH MAJOR CONSTITUTIONAL

REFORM PROCESS

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires D. Brent Hardt, reasons 1.4 (b,d)

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Summary
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1. (SBU) Vincentians are preparing for what will likely be a
hotly contested vote in a November 25 referendum on a new
constitution. The proposed constitution, which would turn
the multi-island nation into a presidential republic, has
been touted by Prime Minister Ralph Gonsalves as essential
for St. Vincent's democratic development; others doubt the
PM's intentions, believing he may be setting himself up to be
president for life. The referendum has also served to spur
former Prime Minister Sir James Mitchell to re-enter politics
and assume de facto leadership of a heretofore listless and
penniless opposition. The controversial November vote will
likely follow party lines and could prove an illuminating
prelude to parliamentary elections due by December, 2010.
End Summary.

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To Create a Republic
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2. (C) In an August 20 meeting, PM Gonsalves told PolOff that
the constitutional reform process, which he claimed had been
ongoing since 2003, must now come to an end. Believing that
a late-November vote would give the people enough time to
review the proposed changes, Gonsalves vowed to be open to
debate as the final text took shape. He claimed that the two
main reasons for creating a new constitution were to move St.
Vincent and the Grenadines out of the "monarchical dark
ages," and to shake loose antiquated rules and regulations
that hinder the country's ability to govern itself.
Gonsalves pointed to the issue of capital punishment,
accusing the London-based Privy Council of creating
roadblocks designed to thwart local judges' rights to carry
out death sentences.


3. (C) Gonsalves further stated that, in order to evolve
democratically, St. Vincent had to break free of "Her
Majesty" and establish a true self-governing system. He did
not specify whether or not replacing the head of state would
accompany a withdrawal from the Commonwealth (Note: He
hinted it might, but that seems unlikely as continued
membership confers certain perqs with few obligations. End
note.) Gonsalves added that the time was ripe to move
forward with a referendum, noting that the transition to a
presidential republic should be smooth, with elections likely
to occur by the end of 2010 -- near the end of his term as
prime minister. The PM did not specify if presidential term
limits would be detailed within the new constitution, though
the current draft does specify that two five-year terms would
be the limit. He hoped for a good turnout during the
referendum, clarifying that the Vincentian diaspora would not
be able to participate from abroad. "They don't live here,"
he said, "so why should they be a part of the process?"

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Too Little, Too Late?
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4. (C) Former Prime Minister Sir James Mitchell confided to
PolOff in July that Gonsalves' actions would be damaging to
the country, mainly because the proposed composition of the
government remained unknown. He feared that power could be
consolidated fully by the president, and that the creation of
a Guyanese-style republic would actually distance St. Vincent
further from its democratic agenda. Sir James hoped that
voters would see for themselves the errors in the process,
but doubted strongly the opposition's ability (or the
government's willingness) to inform the public. Sharing his
trepidation, civil society activist Marlon Mills told PolOff
separately that opposition New Democratic Party (NDP) leader
Arnhim Eustace was a "failure" who would not be able to run a
campaign to block the constitutional changes effectively.
Mills lamented Eustace's lack of understanding of the details
involved, and went so far as to accuse him of relishing his
place as opposition leader, believing that he may be
purposefully stalling to ensure his position remains in
place. Despite -- or perhaps because of -- the reservations
regarding Eustace's abilities, Sir James joined Eustace's
recently-established "Vote No" campaign, lending his support
and substantial clout to NDP's movement.

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Procedures Not Followed
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5. (C) Legislative Consultant Peter Purseglove (a UK national
who works under contract for the Attorney General's Chambers)

told PolOff in August that the Gonsalves administration was
ignoring all procedural norms, as defined by the current
constitution, as it lobbies for the new text. He pointed
specifically to the formation of quasi-parliamentary
committees that were making continuous changes to the new
text during the specified timeframe in which public debate
should be allowed to take place. The Speaker of Parliament,
according to Purseglove, certified that all constitutional
procedures were being followed correctly -- a statement he
found both intriguing and false. He went on to speculate
that, should the referendum result in the passing of the new
text, which would also need to be signed and enacted by the
Governor General, general elections would likely be held by
December 2010 -- matching Gonsalves' earlier prediction.

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Comment
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6. (C) There is a strong feeling in the opposition and civil
society that Gonsalves may be attempting to create a
presidential post for himself that would allow him to
consolidate power after leaving the office of the prime
minister. According to the latest public draft of the
constitution, it appears that executive powers would be
vested in the president, who would also control the military
-- powers akin to, if not greater than, a governor general.
It is doubtful that voters will be fully informed as to the
terms and effects of the new constitution ahead of the
impending referendum. There is a draft of the proposed
document on the government's website, but many doubt that it
is up to date, and fear that additional changes have been or
are being made without reference to open debate. With
information lacking from the government side, and with the
opposition's failure to force more openness, Vincentians will
most likely simply vote along party lines on November 25 --
which would undoubtedly result in passage given the weakness
of the opposition. Sir James' sudden involvement could,
however, strengthen the opposition's stance, possibly making
the outcome of the referendum less predictable, and, if the
final text differs substantially from the draft posted by the
government for comment, there remains the possibility of a
lengthy and bitter legal challenge from the opposition.
HARDT