Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09BRIDGETOWN417
2009-07-08 19:49:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Bridgetown
Cable title:  

ST. KITTS AND NEVIS OPPOSITION LEADERS ANTICIPATE

Tags:  PGOV PREL XL 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXYZ0002
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHWN #0417/01 1891949
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 081949Z JUL 09
FM AMEMBASSY BRIDGETOWN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 7569
INFO RUCNCOM/EC CARICOM COLLECTIVE
RUMIAAA/HQ USSOUTHCOM J2 MIAMI FL
RUMIAAA/HQ USSOUTHCOM J5 MIAMI FL
C O N F I D E N T I A L BRIDGETOWN 000417 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/30/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL XL
SUBJECT: ST. KITTS AND NEVIS OPPOSITION LEADERS ANTICIPATE
ELECTIONS SOON

Classified By: CDA D.Brent Hardt, Reason 1.4(b)


-------
SUMMARY
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C O N F I D E N T I A L BRIDGETOWN 000417

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/30/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL XL
SUBJECT: ST. KITTS AND NEVIS OPPOSITION LEADERS ANTICIPATE
ELECTIONS SOON

Classified By: CDA D.Brent Hardt, Reason 1.4(b)


--------------
SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Opposition leaders from the People's Action Movement
(PAM) on St. Kitts are renouncing their U.S. citizenship in
anticipation of possible elections in July. Using the out of
control crime wave and the government's lack of action as
corner stone of a PAM campaign, leaders are confident they
can wrestle control away from the ruling St. Kitts and Nevis
Labor Party (SKLP). Even if the PAM is able to win 4 or 5
seats on St. Kitts, they will be forced to ally themselves
with one of the parties from Nevis to obtain the necessary 6
seats needed to form a government. Meanwhile, the fudging of
constituency boundaries by the SKLP and the Boundaries
Commission threatens to drag any election results into the
court system.

--------------
PAM LEADERS RENOUNCING U.S. CITIZENSHIP,
PREPARING FOR ELECTIONS
--------------


2. (C) Lindsay Grant, leader of the opposition People's
Action Movement (PAM) in St. Kitts stopped by the Embassy on
June 29 to renounce his U.S. citizenship ahead of possible
elections in St. Kitts and Nevis. The constitution of St.
Kitts and Nevis prohibits members of the parliament and
government from swearing allegiance to other nations. Grant
informed Poloff that Shawn Richards, the only member of the
PAM currently serving in parliament, will renounce his U.S.
citizenship shortly for the same reason. Grant expects the
ruling St. Kitts and Nevis Labor Party, with its weakening
polling numbers, will swing into action this Friday, July
4th, and call elections for a July 23rd election day. Recent
radio announcements by the SKLP state there will be an
historic announcement on July 4th, and the SKLP has a large
rally planned for that evening at the cricket stadium. Grant
is confident the PAM can win a majority of the eight seats up
for grabs on St. Kitts, citing polling numbers the PAM
commissioned from a U.S.-based polling firm that has PAM
taking five seats. He noted that, with the economy slipping
deeper into recession and elections due by the end of 2009,
the SKLP thinks their polling numbers will only get worse in
future months, so the time is now for the SKLP to call

elections.

--------------
CRIME IS THE MAJOR ISSUE
--------------


3. (C) Grant outlined the PAM strategy against the SKLP with
its corner stone being the out of control crime wave in St.
Kitts and Nevis. Crime levels, specifically the murder rate,
have risen to alarming levels in recent years, placing St.
Kitts and Nevis number 2 in the world in murders per capita.
The PAM routinely criticizes the government for its laissez
faire attitude and lack of action toward the problem. Grant
went as far as to call a recent Regional Conference on Youth
Crime and Violence in St. Kitts (reported septel) a
"political charade" to give the illusion the government is
addressing the issue. Any PAM campaign will highlight crime
and the SKLP's inability to deal with it, and Grant said his
party has concrete ideas for addressing at-risk youth issues,
including using institutions like the boy scouts and girl
guides as compulsory membership organizations to instill
structure and discipline into the lives of the country's
youth.


4. (C) Issue number two, he said, would be reviving the
economy, which has seen increased unemployment keeping pace
with decreased tourist arrivals, and with the government
staggering under a crippling debt burden - he estimated 90
cents on every dollar goes to some sort of debt servicing,
leaving the government with only 10 percent of its revenues
to address crime, education, health, and other social
services. Official corruption, he said, was unlikely to be a
big campaign issue, even though he said corruption in the
government was "obvious," citing the PM's accumulation of an
estimated $14 million in property since taking office.

--------------
GERRYMANDERING OF CONSTITUENCY BOUNDARIES
--------------


5. (C) Complaining of unfair "gerrymandering" of the election
districts by the Boundaries Commission, Grant believes the

boundaries will be manipulated to increase the chances of an
SKNLP win. Grant said the Boundaries Commission will submit
their final resolution to the Parliament on July 4, and then
the Prime Minister will dissolve the parliament and call
elections, putting the resolution into effect for this
election with little time to dispute or discuss it. Grant
nevertheless stated that any meddling in the existing
boundaries will be challenged by the PAM immediately, since
he says the Commission will not have followed legal
procedure, which requires at least six months advance notice
of findings, in making its recommendations.


6. (C) Grant admitted that local courts would be unlikely to
hear the PAM's challenge in time for the elections, but said
the party would have grounds to challenge the outcome if
elections are held utilizing any newly-drawn constituency
boundaries and PAM does not secure a majority. Grant also
noted that voter rolls and out-of-constituency voting remains
a serious problem, but said that particular "fraud" has now
been institutionalized in the voting process and so he sees
little that can be done about it. He also said diaspora wwere
likely to play a large role in the outcome, as has
traditionally been the case, but noted that the government's
decision not to hold elections during a U.S. holiday - a
first, he said - and recession impacts might reduce the
number of diaspora voters who travel to St. Kitts this year.


--------------
NEVIS PARTIES PLAY KINGMAKER
--------------


7. (C) In St. Kitts and Nevis politics, there are eight
parliamentary seats on St. Kitts where the two major parties
are the SKLP and the PAM. The island of Nevis maintains
three seats where the two major parties the Concerned
Citizens Movement (CCM) and the Nevis Reform Party (NRP).
Because of the peculiarly federal nature of the St.
Kitts-Nevis political structure, the parties do not cross the
narrows between the islands and compete against each other.
In order to gain control of the federal government, though, a
party must win 6 of 11 seats. According to Grant, if the PAM
wins 5 seats as predicted, he will have to reach out to
either the NRP or the CCM in order to form a coalition
government (or, at a minimum, secure support out of coalition
for a minority government). Grant believes both the NRP and
the CCM will come down on their side of any closely contested
election but admits the PAM does not have an established
relationship with either party on Nevis.


8. (C) Grant's nightmare scenario, he said, is one in which
the seats are evenly split on St. Kitts and the Nevis parties
refuse to back either group - this could lead to a crisis in
government, as there would not be enough support in
parliament to form even a minority government. Grant said he
sees that scenario as unlikely but not impossible, since the
Nevis parties do not concentrate much on federal-level
elections, taking their own Nevis elections much more
seriously (Nevisians, he said, see the federal government as
a necessary evil at best). What makes the scenario unlikely,
though, he noted, was that such a situation had come about
before, in 1993, and the result was several days of civil
unrest and lawlessness. He said politicians on both islands
would have a strong desire to avoid that possibility -
especially in an economic slump and high levels of crime and
gang activity.
HARDT