Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09BRIDGETOWN27
2009-01-15 17:13:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Bridgetown
Cable title:  

ST. VINCENT OPPOSITION - MORE HARD TIMES AHEAD

Tags:  PREL PGOV PINR XL 
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DE RUEHWN #0027/01 0151713
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 151713Z JAN 09
FM AMEMBASSY BRIDGETOWN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 7013
INFO RUCNCOM/EC CARICOM COLLECTIVE
RUMIAAA/HQ USSOUTHCOM J5 MIAMI FL
RUMIAAA/HQ USSOUTHCOM J2 MIAMI FL
C O N F I D E N T I A L BRIDGETOWN 000027 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/13/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR XL
SUBJECT: ST. VINCENT OPPOSITION - MORE HARD TIMES AHEAD

Classified By: CLASSIFIED BY: CDA D. BRENT HARDT, REASONS 1.4
(B, D)

-------
Summary
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C O N F I D E N T I A L BRIDGETOWN 000027

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/13/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR XL
SUBJECT: ST. VINCENT OPPOSITION - MORE HARD TIMES AHEAD

Classified By: CLASSIFIED BY: CDA D. BRENT HARDT, REASONS 1.4
(B, D)

--------------
Summary
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1. (C) Former St. Vincent Ambassador to the UN and cabinet
minister under previous Mitchell administrations, Jonathan
Peters, announced his return to politics in St. Vincent in a
January 13 meeting at the Embassy. Peters has an ambitious
plan both to take control of the opposition New Democratic
Party (NDP) and to challenge Ralph Gonsalves for the
Premiership. To do so, however, Peters said the NDP
desperately needed an infusion of funds - which he seemed to
hope the USG might provide. End summary.

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Peters Returns from the U.S.
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2. (C) Jonathan Peters, a longtime resident of New York and a
U.S. citizen, declared to emboffs during a January 13 office
call his intention to challenge Arnhim Eustace for the
leadership of the opposition NDP and to run against Prime
Minister Ralph Gonsalves in the next elections. Absent for
over a decade, Peters, an old veteran of St. Vincent
politics, believes Gonsalves will not call elections until
late in 2010. Constitutionally, elections are due between
September 2010 and December 2010. In the meantime, Peters is
attempting to align political and financial support for his
run at Gonsalves in the PM's own constituency.

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A Steep Climb to the Top
--------------


3. (C) Facing a steep uphill battle, Peters must first defeat
Eustace for the leadership of the NDP. He is preparing for a
challenge to Eustace during the NDP convention and hopes to
gain control soon as possible so he can proceed with his
challenge to Gonsalves. Although Peters does not believe
current NDP leader Arnhim Eustace is the future leadership of
the NDP owing to a lack of charisma, he still sees Eustace as
a talented technocrat and generously stated he would retain
Eustace as his Minister of Finance if he wins the elections.
Peters' plan, he said, is to convince the NDP's two sitting
MPs to endorse him as party President and to secure the
endorsement also of party founder and former PM Sir James
Mitchell (who he considers a close friend) to grease the
skids for his election as NDP president, and to unite and

re-energize the party behind him. Peters said he has sold
one of his houses in St. Vincent to finance the campaign for
party leadership, and has been on a months-long walking tour
of his constituency, meeting with every voter to raise his
profile.


4. (C) Once Peters has secured the party leadership, he hopes
to challenge sitting PM Ralph Gonsalves in his own
constituency. Peters said he believes the country is tiring
of Gonsalves and his populist gimmicks, trampling of rule of
law, and lack of direction on the economy. He painted
Gonsalves as a committed Castro-ite who hopes to walk in the
shoes of Maurice Bishop. Peters added that, in the event
that polling shows him unable to contest Gonsalves' seat, he
will challenge instead for a "safe" seat in another
constituency where he owns a home and could run.

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A Cash-Strapped Campaign
--------------


5. (C) Peters went on to acknowledge that, with all its
significant donors drying up, the NDP is in a state of
financial disarray and almost completely out of cash. Peters
stated the NDP has mortgaged its long-time and symbolic
headquarters building, Democratic House, in order to pay its
short-term bills, and now the party cannot even make the
monthly payment on that loan. By contrast, he said,
Gonsalves has bragged often about having US$30 million in the
bank to finance an election campaign, along with populist
infrastructure projects that are bringing jobs and economic
activity in the short run (and thereby, he surmised, buying
votes). Peters hinted that Mitchell had offered to find
financing "from a friend" in the amount of some $2 million to
support party activities, but details were nebulous.


6. (C) In short, Peters said, the NDP needed cash to unseat
Gonsalves, and he asked how much the USG might be able to
provide. Emboffs noted the USG does not fund foreign
political parties or interfere in internal politics, but
offered to put him in touch with the National Democratic
Institute and International Republican Institute, which might
be able to assist with institutional capacity building for
the opposition.

--------------
Gonsalves as Dangerous Communist
--------------


7. (C) Peters said he was approaching the USG because of a
perceived commonality of interest. St. Vincent, he opined,
was quickly deteriorating, and he blamed Gonsalves personally
for most of the country's ills. Gonsalves, he said, had no
plans for the economy, relying instead on unsustainable big
infrastructure projects to curry political favor without
adding long-term value to the economy.


8. (C) Concerned about Gonsalves' recent opening of
diplomatic ties with Iran, Peters pointed out that St.
Vincent passports are not difficult to obtain (buy),and he
surmised that it is only a matter of time before Iranians
began to obtain St. Vincent citizenship and passports.
Peters said seeing a country like Barbados establishing ties
with such a regime might be tolerable, given Barbados' strong
democratic credentials, but he worried that Gonsalves, with
his strong personal and ideological ties to Cuba, Venezuela,
and Bolivia and his disregard for rule of law at home, made a
new friendship with Iran a frightening proposition for the
region.

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Comment
--------------


9. (C) Jonathan Peters is certainly not lacking in
self-confidence. Some of his analysis of the problems facing
the country and the NDP is consistent with what other
Vincentians opposed to Gonsalves have been saying for some
time. Many in St. Vincent are worried about the economy,
doubtful Gonsalves is doing anything about it, and concerned
equally about his manipulation of the police and judiciary to
escape rape charges and about his intimidation of opposition
media and others in the community who challenge his policies.
Peters' analysis of the opposition's dire straits is
similarly consistent with what we've heard elsewhere.


10. (C) That said, Peters' hopefulness for his own chances to
take the reins of the party and defeat Gonsalves in his home
seat is likely exaggerated. Former PM Mitchell seems to still
have an interest in returning to politics (though Peters
believes Mitchell won't return unless the NDP hands him the
leadership by acclamation),and as such is unlikely to
endorse Peters. Similarly, sitting MPs will not lightly
throw in their lot with a prodigal son who spends most of his
time in New York and who would have citizenship issues
clouding his candidacy. The bottom line for the NDP is
probably the bottom line - i.e., whoever can bring the money
to the party that is needed to revive it and to finance a
campaign against a charismatic populist PM is likely to get
the nod for leadership.
OURISMAN