Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09BRIDGETOWN171
2009-03-19 14:35:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Bridgetown
Cable title:
ANTIGUA RETURNS UPP TO POWER; ALP HEADS TO COURT
how-toVZCZCXYZ0028 PP RUEHWEB DE RUEHWN #0171/01 0781435 ZNY CCCCC ZZH P 191435Z MAR 09 FM AMEMBASSY BRIDGETOWN TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7225 INFO RUCNCOM/EC CARICOM COLLECTIVE PRIORITY RUMIAAA/HQ USSOUTHCOM J2 MIAMI FL PRIORITY RUMIAAA/HQ USSOUTHCOM J5 MIAMI FL PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L BRIDGETOWN 000171
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/17/2024
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL ST XL
SUBJECT: ANTIGUA RETURNS UPP TO POWER; ALP HEADS TO COURT
Classified By: Charge d,Affaires, a.i. D. Brent Hardt, for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).
-------
SUMMARY
-------
C O N F I D E N T I A L BRIDGETOWN 000171
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/17/2024
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL ST XL
SUBJECT: ANTIGUA RETURNS UPP TO POWER; ALP HEADS TO COURT
Classified By: Charge d,Affaires, a.i. D. Brent Hardt, for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).
--------------
SUMMARY
--------------
1. (C) Antigua and Barbuda's ruling United Progressive
Party(UPP) won a closely contested election March 12, taking
nine of the 17 seats and retaining its majority in
parliament, but losing three previously-held seats in an
election marred by delays and technical difficulties. Among
the seats lost by the UPP was the seat held by the respected
Finance Minister, Errol Cort. Soon after the election, PM
Spencer shuffled the cabinet, shifting portfolios of the
remaining UPP MPs and creating a new Ministry of State
Security by merging Justice and National Defense -- and then
promptly appointing Cort, now an unelected Senator, to serve
as Security Minister. Despite losing, the opposition Antigua
Labor Party (ALP) was heartened by its ability to pick up
three seats and has vowed to contest at least three other
seats in court due to
what it termed "disenfranchisement" of voters caused by
delays in opening some polling stations on election day.
Having Cort in the Security chair should give a boost to our
security relationship; having him out of the finance
ministry, though, could slow our WTO gaming case talks.
End Summary.
--------------
UPP Wins Close Victory
--------------
2. (C) After a hotly contested campaign that saw sporadic
violence and sensational allegations on both sides Antigua
and Barbuda's March 12 general election returned the United
Progressive Party (UPP) to power with a slim majority of 9 of
17 seats. The Antigua Labour Party (ALP) won 7 seats, adding
three seats from the previous election. Trevor Walker of the
Barbados People's Movement (BPM) won the lone seat
representing the island of Barbuda, and has pledged to
support the UPP government. Despite losing significant
ground in the election, PM Spencer put a positive spin on the
outcome, stating that he was surprised that the UPPdid not
win more comfortably. According to one LP campaigner,
internal polls had them winning i two other districts, the
district won by the UPPs Harold Lovell and the seat won by
John Maginle. Moreover, he noted the ALP candidate on
Barbua, Arthur Nibbs lost by only one vote, meaning theALP
could have won 10 seats with the shift of a ew votes.
--------------
Election Day onfusion
--------------
3. (U) On eletion day, polling stations in several electoral
istricts did not open on time. Six of the 17 consituencies
opened late, ranging from two to six hurs late. One of the
hottest contested constituecies, St. Mary's North, saw
considerable delays on Election Day: voting had been
scheduled to begin at 6 a.m., but voting in all four of the
St. Mary's polling centers opened late. The polling station
staff, ready at 6:00 a.m., waited with their hands tied as
officials failed to deliver election materials on time.
Delays ranged from three to five hours as voters braved first
rain and then heat to cast their votes. Election monitors
witnessed elderly and handicapped individuals waiting for
hours in line before and after the polls opened. Voters
remained calm and no incidents were observed, but complaints
and conspiracy theories were heard
up and down the line of voters. The worst delays were seen
in the St. John's Rural West district, the district of Prime
Minister Baldwin Spencer, where voting did not start until
noon -- a full six hours after the scheduled opening.
4. (U) Several voters complained that they needed to return
to work and would not be able to return to vote due to
scheduling conflicts. The GOAB allowed all employees four
hours off, with pay, in order to vote. In St. Mary's
North, which was won by the ALP's Molwyn Joseph by 21 votes,
voter turnout was significantly lower that the national
average of almost 85 percent. It is impossible to tell if
the late start affected the outcome in the closer
constituencies, but OAS election monitors and others agreed
that the election, truncated though it was, should be
characterized as free and fair.
--------------
ALP to Challenge Election Results
--------------
5. (C) Opposition Leader and former PM Lester Bird has
called for election runoffs in three districts -- St. John's
Rural West (the district won by PM Spencer); the constituency
of Barbuda, won by Trevor Walker; and St.
John's City East, the district won by UPP candidate John
Maginley. Bird contended publicly that the voters were
"disenfranchised" due to the late opening. (Note: PolOff was
the OAS election observer in City West and can confirm that
that constituency opened on time.) The ALP is seeking a
legal injunction to prevent those members from being seated.
ALP MP Robin Yearwood explained that if Spencer cannot be
seated due to court order, then Chester Hughes, the PM's
recently appointed deputy, would assume the premiership.
However, other political commentators have speculated that if
all three contested constituencies could not be seated then
the ALP would hold a majority until the courts come to a
decision or run-off elections are held.
6. (C) Despite failing to retake the majority, the swing of
three seats back to the ALP is a sign that the party of the
Birds -- long infamous as one of the region's most corrupt
governments -- is still a force in Antiguan politics. The
stigma of corruption continues to dog the party, but as new
younger candidates come to the fore and the party steps out
of the shadow of the Bird family, it can be expected to make
gains. Young candidates like Gail Christian, age 32, who
lost by only a few hundred votes to PM Baldwin
Spencer in the largest constituency on the island, could very
well take that seat in the next election.
7. (C) Entrenched ALP stalwarts such as the wealthy
Syrian-Antiguan Hadeed family were backing the ALP heavily in
this election after bankrolling the UPP's ascension to power
in the 2004 election. The Hadeeds are concerned that Spencer
could try to nationalize their power plant, which provides 50
percent of the island's electricity. On the morning after
the election one of the Hadeed clan was seen speaking to the
BPM's Trevor Walker, seeking to persuade him not to caucus
with the UPP. Walker's importance to both sides was
illustrated when Spencer awarded him the potentially
lucrative and highly
sought-after Ministry of Transportation and Public Works,
with its control of contracting for infrastructure projects
and hundreds of jobs. With Walker locked up, even if the ALP
were able to obtain a runoff in the three seats that
they are seeking, they would have to win two of the three to
wrest control from the UPP -- a feat that is looking less and
less likely as the dust settles.
--------------
Cort Loses Seat
--------------
8. (C) Former Finance Minister Errol Cort lost his closely
contested rematch with former PM Bird by 71 votes. Bird, who
dubbed himself the "comeback kid," expressed to the Charge in
August, 2008 his confidence that he could take back the seat
from Cort. Newly re-elected ALP MP Robin Yearwood lamented
to PolOff soon after the election that a UPP win and a Cort
loss was the worst possible
outcome of the elections. Cort is well respected by all
sides, he noted, and it would be a loss for the Antiguan
people if he were not in the Government. Had Cort won and
the ALP won he would likely have remained Finance Minister,
former UPP Minister of State-turned-ALP supporter Aziz Hadeed
said in a post election meeting. The constitution requires
that the Finance Minister be a seated member of parliament,
so to keep Cort in the government PM Spencer increased the
role of the Justice Ministry, renaming it the Ministry of
National Security, and appointed Cort as its first Minister.
--------------
The New Look Cabinet
--------------
9. (U) Cabinet Changes:
-- Attorney General Justin Simon will retain his portfolio as
attorney general.
-- Minister Wilmoth Daniel, former Minister of Public Works,
will take esponsibility for the Ministry of Health, Social
Transformation and Consumer Affairs.
-- Minister Harold Lovell, former Minister of Tourism, will
take responsibility for the Ministry of Finance and Public
Administration.
-- Minister John Maginley, former Minister of Health, will
take responsibility for the Ministry of Tourism, Civil
Aviation and Culture.
-- Minister Jacqui Quinn-Leandro, former Minister of Labor,
will take responsibility for Education, Gender, Sport and
Youth Affairs.
-- Minister Hilson Baptiste, former Minister of Social
Transformation, will take responsibility for the Ministry of
Agriculture, Lands, Housing and the Environment.
-- Minister Trevor Walker (BPM),former Minister of State for
Utilities, will take responsibility for the Ministry of
Works, Transportation and Labor.
-- Minister Errol Cort, former Minister of Finance, will take
responsibility for the newly formed Ministry of National
Security. The new ministry will encompass the former
Ministry of Justice and Defense positions previously held by
Senator Colin Derrick and PM Spencer respectively.
-- MP Chester Hughes was named Deputy Prime Minister and will
hold various responsibilities in the government.
--------------
Comment
--------------
10. (C) The UPP's return to power keeps in the premiership
a PM who is favorably disposed toward the U.S. despite his
left leaning political orientation and consistently strong
backing for Cuba. During and after U.S. elections, Spencer
publicly registered his strong support for President Obama,
including by renaming his country's highest peak "Mount
Obama." This enthusiasm suggests Spencer would welcome
closer engagement with the U.S. It is encouraging that
Spencer was keen to retain his most competent and respected
minister, Errol Cort, in a top job, and has handed the
Senator a broad and significant portfolio that will invovle
extensive interaction with the U.S. With Cort as MINSEC, we
should expect progress on our security agenda -- everything
from MLAT requests and ship visits to a PSI shipboarding
agreement and possibly a SOFA. At the same time, Cort's
departure from Finance will set back our continuing talks to
resolve the WTO gaming issue as new faces familiarize
themselves with the case. HARDT
HARDT
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/17/2024
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL ST XL
SUBJECT: ANTIGUA RETURNS UPP TO POWER; ALP HEADS TO COURT
Classified By: Charge d,Affaires, a.i. D. Brent Hardt, for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).
--------------
SUMMARY
--------------
1. (C) Antigua and Barbuda's ruling United Progressive
Party(UPP) won a closely contested election March 12, taking
nine of the 17 seats and retaining its majority in
parliament, but losing three previously-held seats in an
election marred by delays and technical difficulties. Among
the seats lost by the UPP was the seat held by the respected
Finance Minister, Errol Cort. Soon after the election, PM
Spencer shuffled the cabinet, shifting portfolios of the
remaining UPP MPs and creating a new Ministry of State
Security by merging Justice and National Defense -- and then
promptly appointing Cort, now an unelected Senator, to serve
as Security Minister. Despite losing, the opposition Antigua
Labor Party (ALP) was heartened by its ability to pick up
three seats and has vowed to contest at least three other
seats in court due to
what it termed "disenfranchisement" of voters caused by
delays in opening some polling stations on election day.
Having Cort in the Security chair should give a boost to our
security relationship; having him out of the finance
ministry, though, could slow our WTO gaming case talks.
End Summary.
--------------
UPP Wins Close Victory
--------------
2. (C) After a hotly contested campaign that saw sporadic
violence and sensational allegations on both sides Antigua
and Barbuda's March 12 general election returned the United
Progressive Party (UPP) to power with a slim majority of 9 of
17 seats. The Antigua Labour Party (ALP) won 7 seats, adding
three seats from the previous election. Trevor Walker of the
Barbados People's Movement (BPM) won the lone seat
representing the island of Barbuda, and has pledged to
support the UPP government. Despite losing significant
ground in the election, PM Spencer put a positive spin on the
outcome, stating that he was surprised that the UPPdid not
win more comfortably. According to one LP campaigner,
internal polls had them winning i two other districts, the
district won by the UPPs Harold Lovell and the seat won by
John Maginle. Moreover, he noted the ALP candidate on
Barbua, Arthur Nibbs lost by only one vote, meaning theALP
could have won 10 seats with the shift of a ew votes.
--------------
Election Day onfusion
--------------
3. (U) On eletion day, polling stations in several electoral
istricts did not open on time. Six of the 17 consituencies
opened late, ranging from two to six hurs late. One of the
hottest contested constituecies, St. Mary's North, saw
considerable delays on Election Day: voting had been
scheduled to begin at 6 a.m., but voting in all four of the
St. Mary's polling centers opened late. The polling station
staff, ready at 6:00 a.m., waited with their hands tied as
officials failed to deliver election materials on time.
Delays ranged from three to five hours as voters braved first
rain and then heat to cast their votes. Election monitors
witnessed elderly and handicapped individuals waiting for
hours in line before and after the polls opened. Voters
remained calm and no incidents were observed, but complaints
and conspiracy theories were heard
up and down the line of voters. The worst delays were seen
in the St. John's Rural West district, the district of Prime
Minister Baldwin Spencer, where voting did not start until
noon -- a full six hours after the scheduled opening.
4. (U) Several voters complained that they needed to return
to work and would not be able to return to vote due to
scheduling conflicts. The GOAB allowed all employees four
hours off, with pay, in order to vote. In St. Mary's
North, which was won by the ALP's Molwyn Joseph by 21 votes,
voter turnout was significantly lower that the national
average of almost 85 percent. It is impossible to tell if
the late start affected the outcome in the closer
constituencies, but OAS election monitors and others agreed
that the election, truncated though it was, should be
characterized as free and fair.
--------------
ALP to Challenge Election Results
--------------
5. (C) Opposition Leader and former PM Lester Bird has
called for election runoffs in three districts -- St. John's
Rural West (the district won by PM Spencer); the constituency
of Barbuda, won by Trevor Walker; and St.
John's City East, the district won by UPP candidate John
Maginley. Bird contended publicly that the voters were
"disenfranchised" due to the late opening. (Note: PolOff was
the OAS election observer in City West and can confirm that
that constituency opened on time.) The ALP is seeking a
legal injunction to prevent those members from being seated.
ALP MP Robin Yearwood explained that if Spencer cannot be
seated due to court order, then Chester Hughes, the PM's
recently appointed deputy, would assume the premiership.
However, other political commentators have speculated that if
all three contested constituencies could not be seated then
the ALP would hold a majority until the courts come to a
decision or run-off elections are held.
6. (C) Despite failing to retake the majority, the swing of
three seats back to the ALP is a sign that the party of the
Birds -- long infamous as one of the region's most corrupt
governments -- is still a force in Antiguan politics. The
stigma of corruption continues to dog the party, but as new
younger candidates come to the fore and the party steps out
of the shadow of the Bird family, it can be expected to make
gains. Young candidates like Gail Christian, age 32, who
lost by only a few hundred votes to PM Baldwin
Spencer in the largest constituency on the island, could very
well take that seat in the next election.
7. (C) Entrenched ALP stalwarts such as the wealthy
Syrian-Antiguan Hadeed family were backing the ALP heavily in
this election after bankrolling the UPP's ascension to power
in the 2004 election. The Hadeeds are concerned that Spencer
could try to nationalize their power plant, which provides 50
percent of the island's electricity. On the morning after
the election one of the Hadeed clan was seen speaking to the
BPM's Trevor Walker, seeking to persuade him not to caucus
with the UPP. Walker's importance to both sides was
illustrated when Spencer awarded him the potentially
lucrative and highly
sought-after Ministry of Transportation and Public Works,
with its control of contracting for infrastructure projects
and hundreds of jobs. With Walker locked up, even if the ALP
were able to obtain a runoff in the three seats that
they are seeking, they would have to win two of the three to
wrest control from the UPP -- a feat that is looking less and
less likely as the dust settles.
--------------
Cort Loses Seat
--------------
8. (C) Former Finance Minister Errol Cort lost his closely
contested rematch with former PM Bird by 71 votes. Bird, who
dubbed himself the "comeback kid," expressed to the Charge in
August, 2008 his confidence that he could take back the seat
from Cort. Newly re-elected ALP MP Robin Yearwood lamented
to PolOff soon after the election that a UPP win and a Cort
loss was the worst possible
outcome of the elections. Cort is well respected by all
sides, he noted, and it would be a loss for the Antiguan
people if he were not in the Government. Had Cort won and
the ALP won he would likely have remained Finance Minister,
former UPP Minister of State-turned-ALP supporter Aziz Hadeed
said in a post election meeting. The constitution requires
that the Finance Minister be a seated member of parliament,
so to keep Cort in the government PM Spencer increased the
role of the Justice Ministry, renaming it the Ministry of
National Security, and appointed Cort as its first Minister.
--------------
The New Look Cabinet
--------------
9. (U) Cabinet Changes:
-- Attorney General Justin Simon will retain his portfolio as
attorney general.
-- Minister Wilmoth Daniel, former Minister of Public Works,
will take esponsibility for the Ministry of Health, Social
Transformation and Consumer Affairs.
-- Minister Harold Lovell, former Minister of Tourism, will
take responsibility for the Ministry of Finance and Public
Administration.
-- Minister John Maginley, former Minister of Health, will
take responsibility for the Ministry of Tourism, Civil
Aviation and Culture.
-- Minister Jacqui Quinn-Leandro, former Minister of Labor,
will take responsibility for Education, Gender, Sport and
Youth Affairs.
-- Minister Hilson Baptiste, former Minister of Social
Transformation, will take responsibility for the Ministry of
Agriculture, Lands, Housing and the Environment.
-- Minister Trevor Walker (BPM),former Minister of State for
Utilities, will take responsibility for the Ministry of
Works, Transportation and Labor.
-- Minister Errol Cort, former Minister of Finance, will take
responsibility for the newly formed Ministry of National
Security. The new ministry will encompass the former
Ministry of Justice and Defense positions previously held by
Senator Colin Derrick and PM Spencer respectively.
-- MP Chester Hughes was named Deputy Prime Minister and will
hold various responsibilities in the government.
--------------
Comment
--------------
10. (C) The UPP's return to power keeps in the premiership
a PM who is favorably disposed toward the U.S. despite his
left leaning political orientation and consistently strong
backing for Cuba. During and after U.S. elections, Spencer
publicly registered his strong support for President Obama,
including by renaming his country's highest peak "Mount
Obama." This enthusiasm suggests Spencer would welcome
closer engagement with the U.S. It is encouraging that
Spencer was keen to retain his most competent and respected
minister, Errol Cort, in a top job, and has handed the
Senator a broad and significant portfolio that will invovle
extensive interaction with the U.S. With Cort as MINSEC, we
should expect progress on our security agenda -- everything
from MLAT requests and ship visits to a PSI shipboarding
agreement and possibly a SOFA. At the same time, Cort's
departure from Finance will set back our continuing talks to
resolve the WTO gaming issue as new faces familiarize
themselves with the case. HARDT
HARDT