(C) ELECTIONS SNAPSHOT: DISARRY ON ALL SIDES

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRAZZAVILLE 000172


DEPT FOR AF/C, INR/AA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2/5/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL CF
SUBJECT: (C) ELECTIONS SNAPSHOT: DISARRY ON ALL SIDES

CLASSIFIED BY: Alan Eastham, Ambassador, EXO, USDOS.
REASON: 1.4 (d)



1. 1.(C) Summary: Congo(B) will hold a Presidential
election on July 12 for a seven-year Presidential term. With
the filing deadline June 12, only Mathias Dzon has filed formal
papers as a candidate from the opposition. In the non-Sassou
camp, it is difficult to determine which of the possible
candidates are genuinely of the opposition and which are
intended (by Sassou) to pull support away from the two major
opposing candidates (Mathias Dzon and Ange-Edouard Poungui).
Incumbent President Denis Sassou Nguesso is waiting until the
last minute to declare his own candidacy, but there is no doubt
he will, by the end of next week. Sassou and his supporters are
organizing a media-blitzing bandwagon, at the cost of tension
within the Presidential movement, as his backers fight
(literally) to take first prize as the most passionate partisan
on his side. Sassou Nguesso is going to win, probably in the
first round, in an election which will be attacked by the
opposition as neither free nor fair. Worries about security
prior to, during, and after the elections are mostly inchoate.
END SUMMARY.

2.(c) Pre-electoral activity is rising rapidly, at least in
Brazzaville, as both the so-called Presidential Majority and the
divided opposition maneuver. This essay is intended to convey
the atmosphere rather than the details, which we will address
once the candidates have all announced and the campaign begins.
As we understand it now, the filing deadline is June 12; the
official campaign period begins June 20 and concludes July 10;
and the election will be held on July 12. If necessary (fifty
percent required to win) a runoff will be held either July 26 or
August 2, and the new President will be sworn in on August 15,
Congo's national day.

THE PRESIDENTIAL SIDE: Jockeying for the next Sassou government


3. (c) The most notable fact about the Sassou "non-campaign" is
how active it is, despite the fact that he has not yet declared
himself a candidate. This week, Sassou's actual party, the
Congolese Labor Party (PCT),held a "central committee" meeting
(vestiges of the PCT's old days, when it was the sole party and
organized along Marxist lines),having realized that they
couldn't very well endorse their candidate if they didn't hold a
meeting. They are competing with the larger pro-Sassou
grouping, the "Presidential Majority" (RMP) made up of most of
the parties represented in the legislative bodies, which has
already declared itself pro-Sassou. For months, various
"community organizations" have been holding press conferences to
declare their support for Sassou and to appeal to him to run for
another term. In the last two weeks, however, these
"organizations" have taken on a much more personalized tone,
i.e. being overtly identified with one or another of Sassou's
ministers or officials. The "Jean-Dominque Okemba Association"
was featured today (Okemba being the National Security Advisor)
with a call by its young members to support Sassou. Another
organization has popped up recently, the "National Initiative
for Peace (INP)," backed by one of Sassou's government ministers
who seems to have decided to arrest his declining influence
within the "Presidential Majority" (RMP) through public
declarations of support for Sassou. This led, a few days ago,
to the spectacle, not reported in the media but widely discussed
in Brazzaville, of the two senior members of the National
Assembly (one of them a Minister) who head respectively the INP
and the RMP duking it out over a matter of which organization's
banner would be within the President's view at a public rally.

4.(C) One of our contacts, who was a young man at Sassou's side
(a Cobra, probably) during the civil war of 1997 told us that
that this election is a game with the highest stakes there are:
livelihood. Given that oil (and wood) are the only productive
parts of the private sector, it is only natural that those who
practice politics want to maintain their positions, or enhance
them by getting closer to the source, in this case Denis Sassou
Nguesso. He noted this was also the cause of all the conflicts
that Congo(B) has known since independence. Our contact is
supporting Sassou this time, but he hints he will branch off a
year or two after the election, probably to pursue the highest
office himself. There are quite a few like him, who realize
that Sassou is aging and that there is an increasing chance the
top job will fall vacant during or at the end of the seven year
term under discussion.


5. (C) Sassou himself has been extraordinarily active. He has
spent a great deal of time outside Brazzaville, on a long tour
to the north and twice to the south, cutting ribbons, upbraiding
local officials and government contractors for their failings in
implementing his "great works" program, and accepting envelopes
of cash campaign contributions from his supporters. His
campaign has two clear themes: Peace and Development (Great
Works). He is working to convince Congolese that his presence
at the helm of affairs is necessary to avoid a repeat of the
disastrous bloody civil wars that have cost Congo so much. And
he is highlighting all the big buildings and public works that
have come into being in the past few years (but most of which
are behind schedule and not completed). There is a new website
(denissassou.com). On June 6, Sassou is holding something they
are calling a "MEGA MEETING" at which his new French-authored
campaign biography will be released. The t-shirts are being
distributed this afternoon. In contrast, a couple of opposition
rallies outside Brazzaville were blocked in May as "threats to
public order."

OPPOSITION: DIVIDED AND IMPOTENT


6. (C) From the opposition side, we expect as many as eight
candidates, including two from the three factions of the UPADS.
(UPADS is the only other party, aside from the PCT, ever to
govern this country. It was created by Pascal Lissouba, went
into hibernation when Lissouba went into exile in 1997, and was
revived when its members began returning to Brazzaville from
France in 2006-2007). As of June 5, only Mathias Dzon (UPRN -
newly-created party) has filed his papers, and there is some
doubt as to how many more will actually file. Dzon retired at
the end of 2008 from a Sassou-appointed position as National
Director of the reserve bank for central Africa; earlier, he was
Sassou's finance minister. He is, however, the most vocal and
best-organized of the candidates. The other major opposition
candidate, Ange-Edouard Poungui, is badly hampered by infighting
in his divided UPADS party. There is also a possibility that he
could be declared ineligible, based on the two-year in-Congo
residence requirement, based on how much time he has spent in
France lately. One of today's newspapers reports a press
conference yesterday in which the titular head of the 18-party
opposition grouping reports that several candidates whose
parties are members of the opposition coalition will run; we
wonder how a coalition could hang together if their heads are
all running. There is another batch of opposition figures
(probably not very well organized in party structure) but
including a close affiliate of Mathias Dzon's who are going
toward a boycott or further, saying, with a rather menacing
tone, that if there's not a free and fair election, there'll be
no election at all - even for Sassou. This group is more
strongly represented in Paris than in Brazzaville.


7. (C) The opposition has let itself be captured by the
procedural "texts" surrounding the election. With the election
five weeks away, they are still arguing that it should be
postponed until a new voter census can be arranged, until a new
board is appointed at the National Elections Commission (CONEL),
and until several other conditions are met. They are right:
The government and the Sassou-stacked CONEL have played fast and
loose with the procedure, and this election is going to take
place in an atmosphere far from consensual. But we also suspect
that this emphasis on the "texts" and the "preconditions for
consensus" are at least in part a way for hard-liners (or even
Sassou sympathizers, or even Dzon sympathizers, if Machiavelli
is your cup of tea) to trap some or all of the opposition into
an inevitable logic of boycott, thus narrowing the field. So
far, they have not begun to present a coherent "anti-Sassou"
platform or a vision as to how they would run it any
differently. This may be a consequence of the fact that
everybody knows what's wrong here, but no one sees any
politician who could (a) beat Sassou, and (b) behave differently
if he won.


8. (C) Sassou has spent the last five years practicing the
adage "keep your friends close, and your enemies closer" by
neutralizing or co-opting all the major figures of the previous
era of Congolese politics. As of this week, the Kolelas clan is
holding meetings in the Pool to muster support for Sassou;
Kolelas fils is a minister in the government. Yoachim
Yhombi-Opango is silent, tending toward Sassou, and living
happily in Brazzaville where he recently celebrated his
seventieth birthday. Pascal lLissouba is ill, in France, and
has not been heard to say a word for several years. Even the
troublesome Frederick (Pasteur Ntumi) Bitsangou is silent.

EXTERNAL SUPPORT - OR LACK THEREOF
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9.(c) The EU Commission representative was refused his requests
for funding for election support (for civil society),and the
request for observers was made so late by the Congolese
government that it would have been an uphill struggle to get a
mission on Brussels' agenda, even had the Commission been
sympathetic. (We wonder whether the French had a hand in that
reticence; President Sarkozy's visit here, despite his
statements about staying out of Congolese politics, is viewed as
virtually an endorsement of a new Sassou term.) We expect the
AU will field an observation mission, as will the international
organization of "francophonie." The only/only on-the-ground
pre-electoral support from outside is two consultants who are
here under UNDP auspices to work with the National Election
Commission on support for civil society. They arrived this
week, while CONEL/government preparations for this election
began last November.

SECURITY

10.(c) There is a feeling of unease among the Brazzaville
population, but it is based on history rather than indicators.
Presidential politics have been at the heart of most of
Congo(B)'s violence and civil war since independence. Many
foreign residents and entities, including embassies, are jamming
the Air France flight full with dependents, starting now, to
take early vacations this year rather than waiting for any heat
to begin when the campaign begins in earnest. We expect that
the government will keep a tight hold on public meetings,
rallies, or civil disobedience. There is no/no specific
information that militias are forming up, that arms are being
readied, or that any of the factions plans to take it to the
mattresses this time. We will of course keep a close eye on
the security situation as it heats up, as it certainly will.

EASTHAM