FICO/BAJNAI MEETING: PROGRESS WITH RESERVATIONS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BRATISLAVA 000401

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/CE J. MOORE
STATE PLEASE PASS TO NSC FOR JEFF HUVENIER
SIPDIS, SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PHUM HU LO
SUBJECT: FICO/BAJNAI MEETING: PROGRESS WITH RESERVATIONS

REF: BUDAPEST 667

BRATISLAVA 00000401 001.2 OF 002


Summary
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1. (SBU) Following last week's Fico/Bajnai meeting, the
reactions across the Slovak political scene indicate that while
the meeting may be the start of a beautiful relationship, we're
not quite there yet. Fico used the joint press conference to
score a few points against Hungarian nationalists, despite the
11-point accord promising closer cooperation. Back in
Bratislava, the Slovak National Party (SNS) predictably ranted
against concessions to Hungarians, while the Speaker of
Parliament ordered the halt--over protest--to an SNS petition
drive supporting the language law. The ethnic Hungarians were
split between mild skepticism and mild optimism, and President
Gasparovic used a weekend television appearance to characterize
the Hungarians as difficult. With an election coming up, and
much political hay apparently to be made playing the nationalist
card, we expect erratic progress at best. But at least Fico has
not missed another opportunity to make a friendly gesture. End
summary.

A First Step, but Only That
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2. (SBU) Now that the September 10 Fico/Bajnai meeting has had
some time to resonate across the Slovak political spectrum, it
is clear that, while it probably represents a good and necessary
first step (reftel),it has not begun to change the political
dynamic of the relationship with Hungary and ethnic Hungarians
in Slovakia. The first indication of business as usual was
Fico's political point-scoring at the joint press conference
with Bajnai. Whereas the joint statement issued on 10
September promised that both sides would accept the OSCE's
recommendations on the language law, Fico noted at the press
conference that the law is fine as it is, that it has been
maligned by the foreign (read "Hungarian") press, and that "not
a single article needs to be changed." In short: I'm still
right.

Dueling Saints and Explosive Hungarians
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3. (SBU) Fico also suggested that the next meeting be held in
Komarno, and that the Mayor should by then have found an
appropriate place for the statue of Cyril and Methodius that the
Mayor has so far declined to place in the main square. He went
on to propose slyly that it should be placed next to the statue
of St. Stephen (the unveiling of which was the reason for
President Solyom's ill-fated trip to the Slovak border),and
that the PMs can unveil it to symbolize their mutual
understanding. One could see this remark as a sort of
self-deprecating humor, but a more cynical political dig at the
Mayor of Komarno and his Hungarian nationalism is a more likely
read.


4. (U) Meanwhile, Slovak National Party (SNS) Chairman (and
governing coalition partner) Jan Slota was predictably one of
the first in Bratislava to react to the summit and its
(qualified) message of reconciliation. His tone was typically
immoderate: "Hungary is an explosive in Central Europe," he
declared. "If there is no agreement on reciprocity and no
explanation provided on the genocide of Slovaks in Hungary,
relations cannot improve." He criticized Foreign Minister
Miroslav Lajcak as a "weak diplomat" who made too many
concessions to Hungarians. He backed up his rhetoric by
suggesting that MPs from the Hungarian Coalition Party (SMK) and
MOST-HID, who had consulted with Hungarian legislators
protesting the language law, be ousted from Parliament for
treason. Vladimir Meciar, former prime minister and chairman of
coalition partner HZDS, paused from his recent attacks on Slota
to table a proposal to expel the members. The proposal is still
awaiting debate.


5. (U) Slota also lambasted Speaker Pavol Paska, who canceled
SNS's perfectly timed petition drive to gather signatures in
Parliament supporting the language law. Party deputy chair Anna
Belousova offered to defend the brightly colored stand for
collecting signatures (with the catchy slogan "Slovakia in
Slovak" prominently displayed) with her own body if necessary,
even against Parliament's Sergeant-at-Arms. Happily, no one
took her up on the offer, and the stand was quietly removed
later in the day. (The press later lampooned Belousova for
making six grammatical errors in the language petition.)

Moderation from Hungarians, not from Gasparovic

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6. (U) Opinions from the ethnic Hungarian parties varied from
slightly skeptical to slightly optimistic. The deputy chairman
of SMK, Jozsef Berenyi, wondered who is going to guarantee that
the 11 points agreed upon would be observed and questioned why,
given an existing general treaty on the relationship between the
countries, there needed to be any intervention from OSCE. Bela
Bugar, who split from SMK and founded his own political party
(MOST-HID),was more optimistic, saying that the dialogue is a
good start and that the 11 points should be observed by both
sides.


7. (SBU) President Ivan Gasparovic passed up his opportunity to
be the gracious head of state, perhaps because his offer to meet
with his counterpart on the margins of the September 13-14 V4
meeting in Poland had been snubbed. (According to press reports
here, the Hungarians are still waiting for an explanation of
Slovakia's now-famous refusal to admit Solyom for the Komarno
event.) Gasparovic said on national television last weekend
that while Slovakia has no communication problems with its other
neighbors, Hungary has problems with everyone. He added that it
is important to discuss differences in opinions, but that
Hungary avoids bilateral discussions.

Comment: The Horror of Perception
--------------


8. (SBU) We should hardly expect that the rocky relationship
between the Slovaks and Hungarians--both those living in Hungary
and their own ethnic minority--will be resolved by talks between
the two heads of government. It appears that the horror of
being perceived as fractious and petty in the EU context
(particularly in the wake of the Solyom debacle) has won out
over petty fractiousness for the moment. To put it more
positively, Fico has at least not failed once again to make a
minimal gesture of good neighborliness. While we welcome the
public resolution to follow the OSCE's lead on the language law,
we remain guarded, knowing that Fico defers to international
opinion when it seems important politically, and defies it when
that carries a bigger political benefit. With an election
coming up and more votes to be had than lost by playing the
nationalist card, we expect erratic progress at best. End
comment.


9. (U) This cable has been coordinated with Embassy Budapest.
EDDINS