MORE RHETORIC, FEWER THREATS, IN COLOMBIA-VENEZUELA TENSIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L BOGOTA 003515

NOFORN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2019/12/07
TAGS: PREL PGOV KJUS ETRD CO VE
SUBJECT: MORE RHETORIC, FEWER THREATS, IN COLOMBIA-VENEZUELA TENSIONS

REF: BOGOTA 3421

CLASSIFIED BY: William R. Brownfield, Ambassador; REASON: 1.4(B),(D)

SUMMARY

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1. (C/NF) Colombian-Venezuelan tensions appear to have improved
slightly from the bellicose rhetoric of late November, but
significant irritants remain and the situation is by no means
stable. Military leaders in a key frontier area remain focused on
Colombia's internal security situation, not on Venezuela, though
they are keeping a wary eye on the border. Colombian media reports
suggest Venezuelan actions are leading to an influx of Colombian
refugees returning home, although the scope of the problem is not
yet clear. Leaders on both sides of the border continued to trade
verbal barbs, suggesting a rapprochement is not likely any time
soon. End Summary.



ALL QUIET ON THE NORTHEASTERN FRONT

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2. (C/NF) Colombian army leaders responsible for a key section of
the border remain focused on internal security despite Venezuelan
provocations. During a November 23-25 visit to the Cucuta (Norte
de Santander) headquarters of the 30th Brigade of the Colombian
Army's 2nd Division, top officials told us they had not shifted
their focus or resources away from fighting insurgents and
narcotraffickers to address the Venezuelan threat. Outgoing 30th
Brigade commander Colonel Robert Angulo noted the brigade had seen
no perceptible increase in Venezuelan military presence or activity
despite President Chavez's ordering 15,000 troops to the border,
while 2nd Division intelligence chief Colonel Rodriguez literally
laughed at the mention of reports that the GOC was sending
additional troops to the borders to guard against Venezuelan
provocations. Emboffs did not observe any urgent behavior during a
daylong visit to a forward outpost at Tibu (about 6 miles from the
border),where most briefings also focused on internal threats.




3. (C/NF) The military is not complacent about their neighbor's
intentions, however. Angulo told us his units had increased
patrols and reconnaissance along the border to avoid surprises, and
his classified introductory briefing showed the army is clearly
examining both the balance of forces between the two countries'
militaries as well the operating environment on both sides of the
border in case of hostilities. 30th Brigade officials stressed
they were not preparing offensive operations, and they downplayed
the GBRV's November 19 destruction of two informal footbridges
linking Colombia and Venezuela near Cucuta, noting that plenty of
other informal crossing points still existed. Senior Colombian
Army leadership continues to order increased intelligence
collection and reconnaissance missions along the Colombia-Venezuela
border. COLMIL modernization desires include the procurement of
main battle tanks, additional field artillery assets and greatly
enhanced air defense artillery capabilities. However, civilian
leadership at the MOD remains open to more cost effective
solutions.




4. (SBU) On November 30, Agricultural Counselor traveled to Cucuta
and observed a city thriving in economic activity. According to
conversations with local government officials, traders and several
agro-industry representatives, cross-border trade continues
uninterrupted with between 30,000 to 35,000 vehicles crossing the
border daily. In addition, contraband trade continues virtually
unabated, albeit at a slower rate. It is the formal commercial
trade that has stopped, which has had a greater effect on exports
of textiles, food products and other consumables coming from

Medellin, Cali and Bogota.



COLOMBIANS MAY BE RETURNING FROM VENEZUELA

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5. (U) Bilateral tensions continued to flare in the wake of media
reports suggesting the GBRV may be pressuring Colombians in
Venezuela to leave. Venezuela expelled nearly 600 Colombians
(along with about 40 Brazilians) working in an illegal gold mine in
Amazonas state on November 28, according to Colombian press. The
miners told GOC officials and the press that the Venezuelan
National Guard closed the mine and forcibly took them to the
Colombian border, where they crossed into Puerto Inirida, in
Guainia department. Defense Minister Gabriel Silva announced the
GOC would file complaints with international agencies alleging the
GBRV had violated the miners' human rights.




6. (SBU) A high level GOC delegation visited Puerto Inirida on
December 4. They brought humanitarian assistance and planned to
bring back anyone from the expelled group who wanted to return to
Bogota (NOTE: As of December 4, about 120 planned to do so. End
Note). The GOC relocated 60 persons to Villavicencio in Meta
Department on December 3. A few in the group had previously been
registered with the GOC as internally displaced, but it has not
been determined if they had sought refugee status in Venezuela.




7. (SBU) Embassy officials were unable to confirm other media
reports that as many as 7,000 Colombians had returned from
Venezuela in the last two months, but GOC officials insist the
number is significant. Juan Pablo Franco, director of IDP programs
at Accion Social (Colombia's development agency),told the
Embassy's regional refugee coordinator that he had been in Cucuta
on November 25 and heard reports that Venezuelan authorities and
illegal armed groups were making threats against Colombians living
in Venezuela. The United Nations High Commission for Refugees
(UNHCR) and the International Red Cross (ICRC) separately reported
they had not seen evidence of a mass exodus, but rather that
Colombians had returned in small groups. Accion Social and the
International Organization for Migration plan a joint mission to
the area to further investigate. GOC officials remain concerned
that the hostile environment and stigmatization of Colombians in
Venezuela could trigger large returns. The refugee coordinator
stressed to both UNHCR and ICRC that the USG expected them to
monitor the situation closely to ensure the GBRV was fulfilling its
commitments under international law.



WAR OF WORDS CONTINUES AT LOWER VOLUME

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8. (SBU) Even as the immediate specter of war receded, leaders on
both sides continued to trade barbs. President Uribe asserted in a
December 1 radio interview that Venezuela's economic "freeze" on
Colombian imports amounted to an illegal trade embargo, and he
argued that Chavez was building a "Berlin Wall" against Colombia.
Echoing complaints we have heard from other GOC officials (reftel),
Uribe voiced frustration with Latin American leaders' indifference
to Venezuelan actions, and he complained that other countries were
taking advantage of the situation to replace Colombian products in
the Venezuelan market.




9. (U) On December 2, MOD Silva dismissed claims by Venezuelan Vice
President Ramon Carrizalez that Colombia planned a military
incursion into Venezuela similar to the GOC's 2008 military strike

against Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) leader Raul
Reyes in Ecuadorian territory. Silva countercharged that Venezuela
was buying offensive weapons and blowing up civilian bridges,
reiterating that the GOC is determined not to be provoked by the
GBRV. Silva added the GOC had no offensive intentions and was
determined to continue to put up with Chavez's "insults."
BROWNFIELD