GOC TAKES SOUNDINGS ON ELN PEACE TALKS

S E C R E T BOGOTA 003281

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2034/10/29
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER CO
SUBJECT: GOC TAKES SOUNDINGS ON ELN PEACE TALKS

REF: A. 07 BOGOTA 8518; B. 09 BOGOTA 3145

CLASSIFIED BY: William R. Brownfield, Ambassador; REASON: 1.4(B),(D)

SUMMARY

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1. (S) The Government of Colombia (GOC) and National Liberation
Army (ELN) continue to flirt with an official peace process but are
far from taking concrete steps to initiate talks. Former National
Liberation Army (ELN) peace negotiator Francisco Galan initiated an
"exploration" of renewed peace talks after the previous process
collapsed in early 2008. The Government of Colombia (GOC) says it
remains in "listening mode" with the ELN in hope that movement on
an ELN peace agreement will further isolate the larger
Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC). The Catholic Church
remains skeptical that any progress is possible in the short-term.
Post sees little way ahead until after the May presidential
elections, which will change the political and military situation
for all involved actors. End Summary.





A NEW ROUND OF TALKS?

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2. (C) Former ELN member and peace negotiator Francisco Galan told
Pol Chief on October 9 that he was encouraged by initial
conversations with the GOC and ELN on a new proposal to explore the
renewal of peace talks that stalled in early 2008 (ref A). Galan
said he had proposed four conditions for the dialogue. First, that
the talks would remain secret. Second, in keeping with the first
condition, neither side would attempt to use the talks for
political purposes. Third, that a permanent communication channel
would be established to maintain fluidity in the dialogue. Fourth,
that the ELN negotiators would have freedom of mobility -- a
contentious point during previous rounds. Galan said he remained
hopeful that these conditions, if found acceptable, could serve as
a basis for a new round. Galan claimed to have discussed this
proposal with High Commissioner for Peace Frank Pearl, Vice
President Francisco Santos and First Lady Lina Moreno de Uribe.





GOVERNMENT KEEPING EXPECTATIONS LOW

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3. (S) Although High Commissioner for Peace Frank Pearl denied any
new developments with the ELN to Pol Chief on September 17, Pearl's
Deputy Alejandro Eder told Pol Chief October 26 that Pearl had, in
fact, authorized Galan to test COCE's willingness to talk. Eder
said the initiative had been going on for months but claimed the
GOC was still in "listening mode." He was encouraged by messages
on the ELN website (www.eln-voces.com) that referred to a political
solution to the Colombian conflict. He noted that the October 7
jailbreak of former ELN commander Carlos Marin Guarin, aka
"Pablito," would complicate efforts, but thought it was
surmountable. Eder cautioned that the ELN do not fully trust Galan
but that their estimation of him was good enough for Galan to make
preliminary inquiries. Eder said the GOC was considering one or
two third parties to accompany a peace process. They had ruled out
the Cubans, Brazilians, or any other Latin American government
because "they talk too much," he said.




4. (S) Eder said the GOC was taking the long view by leveraging an
ELN peace agreement to induce the FARC into talks. If the FARC
perceived that the ELN had achieved some political success via a
negotiation, Eder theorized, it might give them incentive to
dialogue as well. Eder cautioned, however, that "nothing was

imminent" by way of a breakthrough with either the ELN or FARC.
Both the FARC and ELN are awaiting the May 2010 election results
before committing to a course of action, he added. Eder suggested
that if President Uribe were successful in winning a third term,
both terrorist organizations might be more willing to negotiate as
they are painfully aware of Uribe's tough stance on security. Eder
asked hypothetically what role the United States would be willing
to play should the GOC succeed in initiating a peace process over
the next two to three years.





THE SKEPTICAL CHURCH

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5. (C) On October 15, Catholic Church peace negotiator Father Dario
Echeverri told us he doubted that Galan had made as much headway as
he claimed. Echeverri said his sources, mostly priests in
ELN-dominated areas, had not reported any new willingness on the
part of the COCE to talk. Echeverri commented on the FARC-ELN
rivalry that had at times flared into open conflict. He said the
FARC routinely opposed ELN peace talks, claiming they were a GOC
effort to "paramilitarize" the ELN and employ them against the
FARC.





COMMENT: NO PROGRESS IN SHORT-RUN

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6. (C) We share the Church's skepticism about whether the ELN
really wants to negotiate with the GOC. The ELN is highly
fractured, partially degraded into a narco-trafficking gang, and
still seduced by hopes of intervention by Venezuelan President Hugo
Chavez. We do not foresee either the GOC or ELN taking any
dramatic steps toward peace until after next year's elections.
BROWNFIELD