JUAN MANUEL SANTOS DISCUSSES PRESIDENTIAL PROSPECTS WITH

C O N F I D E N T I A L BOGOTA 003269

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2019/10/27
TAGS: PGOV PREL KJUS PHUM CO EC VE
SUBJECT: JUAN MANUEL SANTOS DISCUSSES PRESIDENTIAL PROSPECTS WITH
AMBASSADOR

CLASSIFIED BY: William R. Brownfield, Ambassa...


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date: 10/27/2009 23:00
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C O N F I D E N T I A L BOGOTA 003269

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2019/10/27
TAGS: PGOV PREL KJUS PHUM CO EC VE
SUBJECT: JUAN MANUEL SANTOS DISCUSSES PRESIDENTIAL PROSPECTS WITH
AMBASSADOR

CLASSIFIED BY: William R. Brownfield, Ambassador; REASON: 1.4(B),(D)

Summary

--------------




1. (C) Former Minister of Defense and pre-candidate for President
Juan Manuel Santos told Ambassador October 23 he believes President
Alvaro Uribe is leaning toward reelection but may fail to fulfill
the legal and electoral steps to achieve it. While promoting the
third term for Uribe, Santos is positioning himself as Uribe's
successor if necessary. He thought his chances good against the
remaining field of candidates, though much depends on what
alliances are struck among them. Regarding the U.S.-Colombia
relationship, Santos said his country needed the United States to
stand up against others in South America with a contrary political
outlook. End Summary.



Uribe's "Crucible of the Soul"

--------------




2. (C) At a lunch hosted by Ambassador, former Minister of Defense
Santos told the Ambassador that he remains dedicated to promoting
President Uribe's third term prospects but will gladly step in as
the U Party's presumptive candidate if those efforts are not
successful. Santos said he believed Uribe had been tending toward
not running for reelection last May when Uribe gave him the
go-ahead to resign from the Ministry of Defense so that Santos
could run for President. At that time, Santos said he thought
Uribe's chances of changing the Constitution were good.




3. (C) That perception was changed, Santos said, by the illegal
wiretap scandal at the Administrative Department of Security (DAS)
and intimations by the International Criminal Court that it may
entertain cases from Colombia when the GOC's reservation to the
Treaty of Rome expires in November. Santos perceived that Uribe
viewed these events as potential setbacks to his Democratic
Security Policy and, as a result, was now more desirous of a third
term. However, Santos believed that time was too short to carry
out the steps remaining to achieve reelection. He even doubted
that Uribe could mobilize the 7.2 million votes necessary for the
referendum to be valid.



Candidate Santos

--------------




4. (C) If Uribe steps aside, Santos was certain he could win the
presidency in two rounds, though much depended on how the other
candidates might align before and after the first round. He
thought it unlikely that Conservative Party (PC) hopeful Noemi
Sanin would join his campaign given their poor relationship. The
other PC pre-candidate, Andres Felipe Arias, is embroiled in a
scandal over agricultural subsidies; Santos thought the young
politician would be patient and wait for a future opportunity to
make his run. Santos detailed the Left's dilemma: the Liberal
Party (LP) can ally with fellow anti-reelection parties Democratic
Alternative Pole (PDA) or Radical Change (CR),but not both given
their contrary political leanings. Santos discounted independent
candidate Sergio Fajardo altogether, saying that his campaign had
stagnated. While the May 2010 elections were "an eternity" away in
political terms, Santos imagined a scenario where he and Sanin
finish in the top two, making the final round a contest against
right-leaning candidates.



Colombia Regional Relations

--------------



5. (C) Santos said he was disappointed at the Foreign Ministry's
handling of the rapprochement with Ecuador. The fact that a judge
in Ecuador was seeking his extradition, along with Chief of Defense
Freddy Padilla and Director of the Colombian National Police Oscar
Naranjo, for the March 2008 attack on Raul Reyes' Revolutionary
Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) camp in Ecuador was a problem for
the Colombian State, he said. Santos said the Foreign Ministry was
too focused on restoring relations with Ecuador and was not doing
enough to defend the high-ranking Colombian officials involved in
the operation.




6. (C) He similarly criticized the Foreign Ministry for not doing
more to isolate Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez internationally.
He said the U.S.-Colombia Defense Cooperation Agreement (DCA),
which he initiated as Minister of Defense, was a strategic advance
for Colombia to deter the threat from Venezuela.
BROWNFIELD

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