OPPOSITION OUTREACH TO CHAVEZ OVER DCA IRKS GOC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BOGOTA 002588

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/18/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL CO VZ
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION OUTREACH TO CHAVEZ OVER DCA IRKS GOC

REF: A. BOGOTA 2520

B. BOGOTA 2449

C. CARACAS 01043

Classified By: DCM Brian A. Nichols
Reasons 1.4 (b and d)

SUMMARY
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1. (C) Several Colombian opposition politicians--most notably
former President Ernesto Samper--visited Venezuelan President
Hugo Chavez in Caracas between August 6-8. All expressed a
desire to serve as a bridge between the two countries during
the current tensions. The Government of Colombia (GOC)
frowned on the visits, publicly reiterating that only the
executive branch has the authority to conduct foreign policy.
Still, the visits appear to have generated results--Chavez
decided to return his Ambassador to Bogota, and he told
opposition leaders he would begin to "unfreeze" relations
with Colombia. Chavez and the opposition leaders appear to
be trying to use the U.S. Defense Cooperation Agreement (DCA)
and bases issue for political fodder, but polls show
consistently high support for the United States and
Uribe--and low ratings for Chavez and the Colombian left.
End Summary.

COLOMBIAN OPPOSITION REACHES OUT, GETS RESULTS
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2. (U) Former Colombian President (1994-98) Ernesto Samper of
the opposition Liberal Party visited President Chavez in
Caracas on August 6. Samper met with Chavez for several
hours, then issued a statement that he had listened to the
BRV's concerns about the proposed USG-GOC Defense Cooperation
Agreement (DCA - see ref A). For his part, Chavez announced
he was glad to begin to "de-Uribize" dialogue with Colombia
and said the only way the GOC could defuse the crisis was to
refuse to allow USG access to its bases. Still, Samper said
he was able to facilitate communication between Venezuelan
Foreign Minister Nicolas Maduro and Colombian Ambassador to
Venezuela Maria Luisa Chiape. Samper also stated that he
would brief President Uribe about the meeting, though Chavez
later clarified that Samper would not be a mediator because
there was "no possible mediation" in the current crisis.


3. (U) The next day, Liberal Senator Piedad Cordoba led
several members of the "Colombians For Peace" group to
Caracas for a meeting with Chavez. During the Cordoba
meeting, Chavez announced he would return BRV Ambassador to
Colombia Gustavo Marquez--whom he had recalled on July 28--to
Bogota, though he also insisted relations would still be
"frozen" (ref C). Chavez and Cordoba also announced they
would create a series of "peace bases" in the region to
counteract what they called the USG-GOC "war bases," starting
in Meta, Colombia, and in the Ecuadorian department of
Sucumbios, site of a GOC strike in March 2008 that killed
Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) Secretariat
member alias Raul Reyes and caused Ecuador to break
diplomatic relations with Colombia. Cordoba also announced
she planned to travel to Quito to discuss the issue with
Ecuadorian President Rafael Correa.


4. (U) Chavez on August 8 received a delegation from the
Alternative Democratic Pole (Polo Democratico Alternativo, or
PDA) led by PDA President Jaime Dussan. Chavez told Dussan
he would reestablish full diplomatic and economic relations
with Colombia, according to an August 11 announcement by the
PDA's Commission on International Affairs. Dussan also
remarked that Chavez had declared he was ready to talk
directly to Uribe about normalizing bilateral relations.
(NOTE: Despite these conciliatory remarks, Chavez told
Venezuelan troops on August 9 they should be "ready for
combat." End Note).

GOC SAYS NO INTERNATIONAL ROLE FOR OPPOSISION
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5. (U) The GOC responded with a tersely worded statement
pointing out that under the Colombian Constitution, foreign
affairs are the exclusive province of the executive branch,
and that no Colombian official could violate that precept.
Most other public figures followed party lines, with
pro-Uribe politicians such as Andres Felipe Arias and former
Foreign Minister Maria Emma Mejia (whom Chavez had publicly
suggested as a possible mediator) supporting the GOC
statement. Top Uribe advisor Jose Obdulio Gaviria went
further, denouncing what he said was a "plot" against Uribe
by pro-Chavez opposition members. Meanwhile, opposition
leaders like PDA President Carlos Gaviria and Liberal

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presidential precandidate Cecilia Lopez applauded the
outreach efforts as sensible solutions to solving the current
crisis. On August 13, a hastily convened meeting of the
President's Foreign Affairs Advisory Committee--which
includes Samper and other former Colombian heads of
state--affirmed the competency of the Executive Committee to
conduct foreign policy.

CHAVEZ, OPPOSITION, STAND TO GAIN LITTLE
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6. (C) Analyses in the Colombian media have suggested the
opposition members were hoping to make electoral hay out of
the bases issue, that they saw the Chavez meetings as a way
to burnish their international credentials, and that Chavez
saw the meetings as an inroad to influence Colombian
politics. Polls, however, suggest neither the opposition nor
Chavez will get much traction from the issue--or from each
other. Although polling results are not yet available about
the base issue specifically, the July Gallup poll of
Colombia's four largest cities shows positive ratings for the
United States (65 percent positive) and the U.S.-Colombia
Free Trade Agreement (65 percent support),both of which have
been consistently positive since 2008. Meanwhile, about 73
percent approve of Uribe's handling of international
relations. Conversely, 65 percent of those polled have an
unfavorable opinion of Venezuela, and 71 percent have an
unfavorable opinion of Ecuador. In the May 2009 nationwide
"Gran Encuesta" poll, 46 percent of Colombians gave Piedad
Cordoba a negative rating, with 38 percent rating her
favorably.

Brownfield