MEDIA REACTION: Iran U.S.-Iran Iran-Internet

UNCLAS BERLIN 000725


STATE FOR INR/R/MR, EUR/PAPD, EUR/PPA, EUR/CE, INR/EUC, INR/P,
SECDEF FOR USDP/ISA/DSAA, DIA FOR DC-4A

VIENNA FOR CSBM, CSCE, PAA

"PERISHABLE INFORMATION -- DO NOT SERVICE"

E.0. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO GM US CU MD SO IT RS UP GG KG
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: Iran U.S.-Iran Iran-Internet
U.S.-Guantnamo Georgia Economic-BRIC


1. Lead Stories Summary

2. (Iran) Aftermath of Presidential Elections

3. (U.S.-Iran) Obama Reaction

4. (Iran) Effect of the Internet

5. (U.S.) Guantnamo Prisoners

6. (Georgia) Unomig Mission

7. (Economic) BRIC Countries Meeting



1. Lead Stories Summary

Editorials focused on the events in Iran, the planned strike of up
to 200,000 students to protest the educational situation at
Germany's university, and the publication of the German recipients
of EU agricultural subsidies. The headlines in the press are
dominated by the most recent developments in Iran. ZDF-TV's early
evening newscast Heute and ARD-TV's early evening newscast
Tagesschau opened with reports on the protests in Iran.


2. (Iran) Aftermath of Presidential Elections

ARD-TV's Tagesthemen commented: "The West criticized Ahmadinejad and
thus also encouraged the Iranians to express their criticism. Now
Iran's citizens want to get rid of Ahmadinejad. But at the same
time, one cannot remain silent when human rights are disrespected
[in Iran]. In this situation it is not enough that the Foreign
Ministry summons the Iranian ambassador to Germany and raises a few
critical questions. How many Iranians must die on the streets
before Angela Merkel talks turkey with Iran?"

According to Sueddeutsche Zeitung, "new violence is likely. The
Islamic Republic of Iran is a twitter between a theocratic
dictatorship and a democracy, a state in which personal freedom has
been massively restricted for decades. Soon, the issue will no
longer be the outcome of the elections but the issue will be
freedom. Like in all authoritarian systems, the leadership is
afraid that any sign of weakness will result in more demands. In
addition, Ahmadinejad has expanded the revolutionary guards...and
President Khamenei knows this. He is the most powerful man in the
state. Now he is damned to find a balance between the extremes. He
is a conservative, an Islamist down to the bone - and in case of
doubt he could decide against the opposition."

Under the headline: "Wise Opposition," Tagesspiegel argued: "Hussein
Mousavi is now demonstrating iron nerves: the first Monday protest
rally is over and there is still al long way to go until the
manipulated elections will be annulled. The hardliners certainly
have learned their lesson. On Tuesday, they sent their hardliners
to the place where Mousavi supporters wanted to hold their second
large-scale meeting. We do not need too much vision to imagine what
would happen if the two camps confronted each other. Mousavi no
longer has a headquarters or his own newspaper. But thanks to the
Internet, he can communicate from his apartment with millions of his
supporters. And the most recent one was: Do not risk your lives,
stay at home and do not fall in the trap of organized street
battles. Many of his supporters took part in a rally anyway - and
moved to a different part of the city."

Stuttgarter Zeitung noted: "The digital world has developed an
unexpected dynamics in the reformist camp that offers the hardliners
arguments for radical counter measures. In their eyes the issue is
the legacy of Iranian founding father Ayatollah Khomeini. The wind
of change caused by the Internet could now force the power centers
in Iran to move closer together. And these centers play the main
role. The armed forces, the intelligence services, police, and
cells from the internal Iranian leadership must join the protesters
- such as in 1979 when the Shah was ousted. The reform camp will
fail if it fights on its own."

Regional daily Rhein-Neckar Zeitung of Heidelberg opined: "They beat
demonstrators to death, they switch off cellular phone networks,
they block the Internet, but, nevertheless, protests in Iran are
taking their course against 'dictator' Ahmadinejad, against an
obvious electoral fraud. But what is the goal? At first sight, the
repetition of the elections, but they are also fighting for alleged
election winner Mousavi. Hundreds of thousands are risking a lot
for this. This courage could be enough to topple the illegitimate
Ahmadinejad government. But will it be enough to oust the religious
caste? And is this the goal of the demonstrators? The answer to
both is 'no.'."


3. (U.S.-Iran) Obama Reaction

Deutschlandfunk aired the following commentary: "What has he done
wrong now? President Obama had hardly expressed his views, when
critics all came out, arguing that the events in Iran are evidence
of the young president's naive diplomatic approach. At the
beginning [of the crisis], Obama took on a wait-and-see attitude
before he expressed his views. They were as usual, carefully
selected and nevertheless, clear. This is good--stay the course!
Over the past few years, we have had an abundance of zealots.
President Obama has never made an offer for talks dependent on the
outcome of the elections. Why should he? The development in Iran
is in a state of flux and it could be totally wrong to influence
developments in Iran from the outside. It could poison a planned
dialogue. The substance of Obama's Iran policy will not be decided
now after the elections, but at the earliest at the end of the year,
a deadline which the President set himself."

Frankfurter Allgemeine argued: "Following President Medvedev's
friendly reception of President Ahmadinejad, it is increasingly
difficult to hope that Moscow will seriously help to prevent Iran
from developing military nuclear capacities. The people surrounding
opposition candidate Mousavi and the democratic forces could,
therefore, not expect someone to talk turkey to Ahmadinejad in
Yekaterinburg. But thus far, the American president has remarkably
held back. He expressed his concern about the violence against
demonstrators, called for the respect for the freedom of association
but avoided the term electoral fraud and confirmed instead the
'respect of Iran's sovereignty.' On the other hand, the attitude of
the regime in Tehran does not give any reason that it would accept
Obama's extended hand. On the contrary, Obama made advances to the
Iranian leadership several times. . Over the past few days, the
regime gave a sobering answer. It is to be hoped that this will not
be the only Iranian answer."


4. (Iran) Effect of the Internet

In the view of Die Welt, "it is evidence of the misery of the
powers-that-be that the Guardian Council has now ordered a partial
recount and that international media are no longer allowed to report
on the continuous protests. What was possible during the Olympic
Games in China is for the Mullahs impossible to achieve. In China,
the regime switched of the Internet, but this is no longer possible
in Iran. It is the Twitter users who the censorship is unable to
stop. When the Internet came up, people welcomed it as the end of
dictatorship and as the final blow against dictators. The cheers at
that time came too early, but now it might happen any minute. We
have a new media that possibly initiates the end of a formerly
established regime. One thing is certain now: the Mullahs will have
great difficulty ignoring the 'no' of the people to Islamic
religious rule."

Regional daily Abendzeitung of Munich observed: "No, the Internet is
not new, but the role it can play in such turmoil as in Iran is
revolutionary. The weak have a powerful new weapon. They sit at
their desks at home and read what Iranian students are writing while
they sit locked up in their dormitory and shots are heard from the
outside. And the world joins them, answers their news reports and
helps. Censorship cannot take place with Twitter. Now it is for
many Iranians the last remaining possibility to organize their
protest and to win the world for their cause. The word has always
been a strong weapon, and now it has found a new path."

Regional daily Klnische Rundschau of Cologne observed: "One thing
is clear: Mir Hussein Mousavi, who is fighting for his election
victory, is everything else but a democrat in the western sense,
since the Mullahs would otherwise not have allowed him to run in the
elections. But he is a carrier of hope compared with provocateur
Ahmadinejad. But these enormous protests will change a lot. Many
demonstrators are good at using the Internet and the new
communication technology. That's the way it is in a globalized
world. Everything is public. This is an enormous encouragement for
all oppressed everywhere in the world. In the long run,
dictatorships have no longer any means against these freedom-loving
people. In Iran, the separation between religion and politics is on
the agenda. A well-informed Islam that is able to conduct a
dialogue - this is the real dream."

Copyright: Berliner Zeitung/Berndt A. Skott



5. (U.S.) Guantnamo Prisoners

Under the headline: "Bella Italia instead of Guantnamo,"
Sueddeutsche Zeitung reported: "Italy is obviously willing to accept
three prisoners from the Guantnamo prison camp. Following a
meeting with Prime Minister Berlusconi, President Obama explicitly
thanked Berlusconi for his 'support of our policy to close
Guantnamo,' and added that he appreciated Rome's gesture. Obama
said on Tuesday evening: 'This is not mere rhetoric.' Since Italy
will now accept three prisoners, Washington still has to decide
about what to do with exactly 226 prisoners. According to the
Justice Department, 'clearly more than 50' prisoners could be
released immediately. Since numerous detainees come from China or
Arab countries, which are accused of violating human rights and
exercising torture, a deportation to their home countries is not
possible."

In an editorial, Sueddeutsche opined: "The [European] criticism of
the Guantnamo prison camp was cheap because the Republican
president never seriously thought about closing the camp. But now
that President Obama is keeping his promise to close it and wants to
find a home for the 226 prisoners, many Europeans are only
whispering. Only two leaders, normally ostracized as chronic
bigmouths in the EU, are supporting the President: Nicolas Sarkozy
and Silvio Berlusconi. And what about Berlin? Angela Merkel does
not consider it necessary to interfere. But she should do so. Next
week, she will visit the White House - and at the latest then she
must say what is the value of her (and the Germans') friendship with
the United States."


6. (Georgia) Unomig Mission

Frankfurter Allgemeine penned the following editorial: "After 16
years, a UN mission in Georgia abruptly ended overnight. Russia did
not want to support a draft resolution on an extension of the
military mission of the 150 military observers and police officers,
and exercised its right to veto. But it was right to insist on the
vote, thus forcing Moscow to use its veto. Now it is at least clear
that the Kremlin is uncompromising when it comes to the recognition
of Abkhazia and Southern Ossetia, thus not giving a damn about
international commitments."


7. (Economic) BRIC Countries Meeting

Handelsblatt pointed out: "They lost the first round in the showdown
with the established industrialized nations. Advances supported by
Russia and China to question the dollar as key currency did not
succeed. Even the BRIC states cannot do without the greenback. An
alternative to the dollar is nowhere in sight even in times when the
United States is in serious economic trouble. Nevertheless, the
BRIC states should not be underestimated. They are the shooting
stars of the global economy. Even in the greatest economic crisis
in decades, they enjoy a greater confidence among investors than the
EU and the U.S. This first summit of BRIC states in Yekaterinburg
is not likely to be the last, since they consider themselves the
secret challenger of the G-8. But despite their potential, they are
not likely to break the G-8's power, because the four emerging
states all depend on the economic development in the traditional
industrialized nations. But the economic crisis has strengthened
the voice of BRIC states. Without them, the G-8 will no longer be
able to pursue a political strategy."

According to Sueddeutsche Zeitung, "the Russians want it, the
Chinese want it, and the Arab countries want it in any case, but in
the West hardly anyone listens. At issue is a new global monetary
system, one that is more independent from the dollar, which is
losing prestige the longer the economic crisis lasts. In the
meantime, the dollar is considered an unreliable weakling. With
every billion that the U.S. government and the Federal Reserve spend
in Washington, the tone of the dollar critics is getting louder.
And if the flow of money from Moscow and Beijing dries up, the
Americans will be unable to pay for their economic stimulus
programs. The West still has it in its hands to shape the new
global financial order. If the West continues to ignore the
proposals of the new economic powers, it is risking an uncontrolled
change to a new key currency. A sudden flight from the dollar would
lead to further distortions. Serious monetary turbulence would be
the consequence with the corresponding implications for the global
economy. It would be better to introduce a broadly based basked
currency that is based on natural resources and precious metals. In
the past, there were many wars about gold. This alone should be
warning enough and an impetus to pursue a policy that would
eventually replace the dollar [as key currency]."