NORTHERN IRELAND DEVOLUTION DELAYED BUT ON TRACK

C O N F I D E N T I A L BELFAST 000050


NOFORN

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/WE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 7/10/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV SOCI UK EI
SUBJECT: NORTHERN IRELAND DEVOLUTION DELAYED BUT ON TRACK

REF: BELFAST 36

CLASSIFIED BY: Daniel F. McNicholas, Acting Consul General,
Consulate General Belfast, State Department.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)



1. (C/NF) Summary. Northern Ireland's political leaders,
together with HMG's Northern Ireland Office, are united in their
conviction to move forward on the devolution of policing and
justice. An attempt by hard-line unionist Jim Allister to
siphon off support from First Minister Peter Robinson's DUP has
distracted Robinson from making progress in the short term.
Robinson faces unflattering comparisons to former UUP leader
David Trimble from critics and supporters alike, who have urged
him to maintain focus in the face of this current political
test. The primary obstacle to settling policing and justice
remains nailing down the unknown financial demands that the
transfer of these powers from Westminster to Stormont will
create. Robinson and other unionist politicians are reluctant
to set a date for the transfer without a firm and generous HMG
commitment to cover costs, which could run to the hundreds of
millions as outstanding legal and medical claims from police
from the time of the Troubles remain unresolved. Meetings
between Robinson, Deputy First Minister Martin McGuinness, and
Prime Minister Gordon Brown are expected to settle the financial
issue in the coming week.


2. (C/NF) Summary con't. Northern Ireland Secretary Shaun
Woodward cautioned against pushing Robinson too hard on
devolution in the current fragile political environment for fear
that he might "snap or just walk away," leaving a leadership
vacuum. Sinn Fein's Gerry Adams shared the view that strong
unionist leadership was in the interest of both communities and
necessary for progress to be made. As the UK general election
approaches (some time by June 2010) Woodward also voiced concern
about a sustained British commitment to devolution under a
Conservative government, opining that Tory leader David Cameron
was prepared to sacrifice peace for electoral gain, and that the
Tories were unlikely to be trusted by Sinn Fein as honest
brokers. As Northern Ireland moves into the annual Orange Order
marching season there have been no reports of serious violence
despite minor incidents of vandalism against Orange halls and
Catholic churches in County Antrim in a possible bid to escalate
tensions. The late June announcement of decommissioning of
weapons by loyalist paramilitary groups the UVF and Red Hand
Commando was welcomed as a positive step - while the Ulster
Defense Association also announced it had begun the
decommissioning process. End summary.


3. (C/NF) In a series of conversations over the last two weeks
with Acting Consul General and with a visiting Codel Northern
Ireland's political leadership expressed a range of views to
explain the stalled devolution process, the sensitivities
surrounding finally devolving policing and justice, the
hard-line threat to First Minister Peter Robinson posed by
populist unionist politician Jim Allister, and prospects for
ways forward.


DUP Disarray Stalls Devolution
--------------


4. (C/NF) Northern Ireland's process of fully devolving power to
the Northern Ireland Executive remains stalled over the
contentious issue of policing and justice. First Minister Peter
Robinson's majority Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) is still
reeling from the humiliating defection of many of its bedrock
supporters to hard-line unionist Jim Allister in the June 4
European Parliament (EP) elections (ref A). Allister's
Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV) party siphoned off what many
political observers here argue were, at least in part, protest
votes against the DUP's perceived lack of leadership and
attention to core issues like education, employment, and
healthcare, as well as a reaction to the Westminster MP expense
scandal that focused attention on MPs and Members of the
[Northern Ireland] Legislative Assembly (MLAs) "double-jobbing"
- i.e. holding ministerial, MLA, and/or MP positions and
enjoying the respective pay and benefits for these jobs. In the
end, the June EP poll returned DUP MEP candidate Diane Dodds
over incumbent Allister but not without considerable cost to
what appears to be a deeply-shaken DUP.


Jim Allister: Kingmaker or Spoiler?
--------------


5. (C/NF) Comparisons are being drawn by a number of unionist
and nationalist/republican politicians between Peter Robinson
and David Trimble (the former Ulster Unionist leader and First
Minister, who struggled in 2001 for supremacy among unionists
amidst criticisms by hardliners of his role in negotiating the
Good Friday Agreement.) Jim Allister, once a peripatetic member
of the DUP, is attempting to pull his former party to the more
hard-line unionist end of Northern Ireland's political spectrum
- in a move reminiscent of former DUP leader Dr. Ian Paisley
when he undercut Trimble in search of hard-line unionist
support. Allister, a former leader of Loyalist street protests
denouncing any power-sharing with IRA/Sinn Fein, twice resigned
from the DUP before creating the TUV in December 2007. He has
been critical of Robinson as a "blusterer," and his strong
showing in the European elections make him a force to be
reckoned with if the DUP wants to shore up its support among
hardliners. For his part, Ian Paisley dismissed Allister's
showing, saying things would carry on much as they had been in
unionist politics; "that the people who left the DUP haven't won
anything."


DUP "Nervousness"
--------------


6. (C/NF) Allister has long been critical of any Sinn Fein/IRA
role in policing and justice - asking supporters on his website:
"If policing and justice powers are devolved Martin McGuinness,
a man who boasts his role in the IRA, will then have a key role
in the appointment of senior judges. Is this what you want?"
Allister's populist positions appeal to unionists skeptical of a
Sinn Fein role in two of the most sensitive executive portfolios
in the province. Leader of the Conservative/Unionist Party
(formerly the Ulster Unionist Party, UUP) Sir Reg Empey told us
that he believed Allister had indeed made an impact; that he had
become a "kingmaker"; and that the DUP was scared of him.
Stephen Farry, an MLA from the cross-community Alliance Party
and its spokesman on justice and finance, echoed what he viewed
as "DUP nervousness" at the TUV's success and stressed that
Robinson needed to remain committed to devolution and follow
through, and not be "looking over his shoulder, like David
Trimble." Allister's uncompromising stance, and his relatively
strong showing in the European election, have certainly
contributed to Peter Robinson's slow roll on devolution, at
least while he tries to increase his credibility with unionist
hardliners - evidenced in part this week by his expected
intervention to facilitate compromise in at least one of the
more contentious Orange Order marches in Drumcree, Co. Armagh.



Smaller Parties Urge Robinson to Move Forward
--------------


7. (C/NF) Progressive Unionist Party (PUP) leader Dawn Purvis
told us that she was confident that Robinson could "hold things
together;" that he needed to reflect on the European elections
and get "back to basics," while rejecting the notion that
Allister's success translated into withering support for power
sharing among unionists. She noted that under the transferrable
vote system, votes Allister won reverted to the DUP and UUP once
he was out of the running - evidence that the electorate was
most likely simply registering its disillusionment with the DUP
over nepotism in the party, the expenses scandal, and the
party's mixed messages toward Sinn Fein (making public
statements critical of SF, while happy enough to be in
government with them). The Social Democratic and Labour Party
(SDLP) policing and justice spokesman Alex Atwood echoed
Purvis's view, noting that it was in the common interest for
Robinson to "take the breaks off and move forward;" that he
should draw confidence from the last elections and press ahead
with policing and justice.


Unknown Policing & Justice Costs a Concern
--------------


8. (C/NF) Sir Reg Empey indicated that his party has no
principled objection to devolution of policing and justice but
is concerned over two points. First, the party had not been
involved in any of the discussions on devolution but was now
expected to support it: "It's all been the DUP/Sinn Fein behind
closed doors. We don't know what deals have been done between
them...and so we haven't had any discussions of how to handle
issues if they arise." Second, Empey, echoing concern shared by
many unionists, expressed unwillingness to move forward with
policing and justice while the costs of the new responsibilities
to be borne by the Executive were unknown. Fear of budget
shortfalls in other essential services like healthcare and
education were foremost in Empey's mind as he pointed to the
increased cost of policing in Northern Ireland (e.g. conducting
risk assessments before dispatching police to respond to calls;
and the need to send 2-3 police cars to respond to routine calls
since the March murder of Police Service of Northern Ireland
(PSNI) officer Stephen Carroll by dissident republicans). Empey
also cautioned against pushing the devolution of policing and
justice too soon, particularly with a weak minister at the helm.
Doing so, he said, ran the risk of returning to the "bad old
days." He expressed a widely-held view that it would be autumn
at the earliest before any decision on policing and justice
would be agreed.


Alliance Party Leader Ford
Presumed Justice Minister
--------------


9. (C/NF) The Alliance Party's Stephen Farry acknowledged
widespread speculation that Alliance would, as "the least
mistrusted party," be expected to put forward a compromise
candidate for the policing and justice minister position. Peter
Robinson confirmed July 8 in the media as "fairly obvious" that
he would ask Alliance to take on the new post. Despite
Alliance's small size, Farry intimated that the party was
prepared to take on the role provided that it was "given room to
work" and would not be pressured by Sinn Fein or the DUP; that
it could count on support from the British, Irish, and U.S.
governments to "avoid the populism" of Sinn Fein and the DUP;
and lastly, that it could count on a financial package from
London to make devolution of policing and justice work.
Separately, the PUP's Dawn Purvis told us that the deal enabling
the Alliance Party to provide the minister for policing and
justice was "done and dusted" and that Alliance had already
identified a candidate. (Note: The speculation is that
Alliance leader David Ford will be put forward for the post.
End note).


McGuinness with PM Brown:
No Decisions on Financing but Progress
--------------


10. (C/NF) Sinn Fein (SF) advisor Leo Green gave Acting CG a
read out of Deputy First Minister Martin McGuinness's June 30
meeting with Prime Minister Gordon Brown in London. Sinn Fein
was disappointed that First Minister Peter Robinson had pulled
out of the scheduled joint meeting the night before, opting
instead for a telephone call to Brown on July 1 and his own
separate meeting on July 7; and Green pointed to Robinson's
absence as the reason that "no real business was done"
(particularly discussions of HMG financing of devolved policing
and justice) during McGuinness's meeting with the prime
minister. Despite the First Minister's absence, McGuiness took
the opportunity to reassert SF's position for establishing a
firm date for the transfer of policing powers. McGunness also
reminded the Prime Minister of HMG's commitment to address
instances in which unionists were seen to be blocking progress
on devolution, and made the point that it might soon be
appropriate for Brown to press Robinson to move forward. The
Deputy First Minister also raised other outstanding commitments
by the British and Irish governments, including a Bill of Rights
(called for in the Good Friday/Belfast Agreement),the draft of
which Green indicated was being stalled by unionist parties;
resolution of the status of OTRs or "On the Runs" - some 200
cases of individuals who believe they would be arrested and
charged with pre-1998 conflict-related offenses if they returned
to Northern Ireland; and pending extradition cases. Green
indicated that there were plans for another
Robinson-McGuinness-Brown meeting in the coming week, but
expressed frustration with the DUP leadership for backing out of
agreed meeting arrangements on short notice. Green confided
that, due to the disarray the DUP appears to be in and the
resultant lack of political progress on devolution, the meetings
of the Northern Ireland Executive over the last several weeks
have been little more than "a pretense." "The business of the
Executive just isn't justified" as it stands, he said.
Separately, Sinn Fein's Gerry Adams expressed to us his
frustration at the pace of the devolution process. He also
shared that the current difficulty facing the DUP affected Sinn
Fein: "we need a strong unionist leadership, and right now
Robinson is David Trimble personified."


Robinson with PM Brown:
Finances Remain the Concern
--------------


11. (C/NF) DUP Director of Policy Richard Bullick gave Acting CG
details of Peter Robinson's separate July 7 meeting with PM
Brown. The First Minister was working to move forward on
policing and justice, Bullick said, but the DUP needed to be
cautious about the financial pressures that the transfer of
those powers to Stormont would create. There was concern about
having to divert money "from schools and hospitals" in the event
policing and justice costs ran over estimates - which Bullick
said could be in the hundreds of millions of pounds. The
primary concern was how the Executive would finance several
open-ended line items, such as hearing loss claims by former
police officers as a result of the Troubles, unequal pay claims
within the police, public enquiries into past police actions,
and legal aid to defend against claims. All these costs were
difficult to estimate, and the Executive ran the risk of
overreaching and asking for too much, only to be refused; or
asking for too little and be left with significant budget
shortfalls. One idea on the table, Bullick said, was a
compromise whereby Robinson and McGuinness would ask PM Brown
for a commitment from HM Treasury to help cover these "blind
costs." Bullick confirmed that a joint
Brown-Robinson-McGuinness meeting would take place next week and
would address these details with an eye toward nailing down
specifics. The devolution issue suffered a fresh setback July 9
when Stormont ministers failed to discuss enabling legislation
as planned. It is expected that the Northern Ireland Executive
will take up the discussion at a meeting later this month.


Northern Ireland Secretary Cautions
Against Pushing Woodward
--------------


12. (C/NF) In a July 2 meeting with a visiting Codel in London
Northern Ireland Secretary Shaun Woodward cautioned against
pushing Robinson too hard on devolution. Robinson had sought
power for 30 years, he said, but now realized it was harder to
govern than he had thought. Woodward expressed concern that, if
pushed too far, Robinson, whom he said was "hanging on by a
thread," could "snap or just walk away." The fear is that no
one in the DUP is prepared to succeed him. Woodward ruled out
potential contenders - former junior minister Jeffery Donaldson
(who is this week defending himself against speculative
accusations that he may have claimed expenses for adult films
while on official travel) and Minister of Enterprise Arlene
Foster - as untenable. Woodward believes that Robinson should
announce within a few weeks his plan to establish a ministry of
justice with Deputy First Minister Martin McGuinness, with
details subsequently being worked out by the parties. Woodward
dismissed Sinn Fein's insistence on a date certain for the
creation of the ministry as a non-starter as it put too much
pressure on Robinson with his party base. What was more
important, Woodward said, was a commitment to the process and
attention to drumming up support among both unionists and
nationalists/republicans for the new ministry.


Woodward Concerned about Devolution
Under Tories
--------------


13. (C/NF) Woodward also expressed stark concern about a
Conservative government under leader David Cameron maintaining
momentum on devolution. Cameron lacked understanding of
Northern Ireland, he said, and had effectively thrown his lot in
with the unionists by linking the Tories with the former Ulster
Unionist Party and agreeing to run joint Tory/unionist
candidates. The move, Woodward said, which showed Cameron was
willing to sacrifice peace for electoral gain, would isolate the
Conservatives further from Sinn Fein and remove the possibility
of a Tory government playing a constructive role in the peace
process or the final mechanisms of devolution, were devolution
not concluded before the next UK general election.


14. (C/NF) Woodward also addressed the outstanding issues that
Sinn Fein has raised: ("On-the-Runs;" and an Irish language act,
which has drawn a hostile reaction from the DUP with the
appointment of Nelson McCausland as Minister for Culture, Arts,
and Leisure. McCausland opposes the act and his appointment is
seen as a DUP sop to hard-line unionists.) Woodward's view is
that these, and other contentious issues, would be more
effectively addressed by the Executive and the Assembly once
devolution was completed, and has argued that they be shelved
until then so as to minimize the risk that any of the issues
would scuttle movement on policing and justice.


15. (C/NF) Woodward is conscious of time slipping away in which
the second stage of devolution can take place and has indicated
that the next six to seven months will be difficult. The longer
the final elements of devolution take to settle the more
emboldened dissident republicans become and the greater the risk
of undermining confidence within the nationalist community that
power-sharing can work.


Loyalist Decommissioning: Progress
but More to Do
--------------


16. (SBU/NF) The June 27 announcement by loyalist paramilitary
groups the Ulster Volunteer Force (UVF) and Red Hand Commando
(RHC) that they had decommissioned arms, munitions, and
explosives held in their possession was welcomed as a positive
step by leaders across Northern Ireland. Head of the
Independent International Commission on Decommissioning (IICD),
retired General John de Chastelain, confirmed that IICD
observers had witnessed the UVF and RHC putting their weapons
beyond use. The IICD's next report formally confirming the
status of decommissioning will be submitted to HMG in August.
Loyalist decommissioning had been stalled in the wake of the
March murders by dissident republican groups of soldiers and a
police officer. The IICD also announced that a third loyalist
paramilitary group, the Ulster Defense Association (UDA),had
begun the process of decommissioning its weapons. The UDA is
more decentralized of a group than the UVF, and this
announcement was followed on July 8 by a statement from the
political wing of UDA in Coleraine that it was withdrawing
support for the political and policing institutions of the
northwest of the province. Citing frustrations over "the
demonization of loyalism in the region," the move comes amidst
increased tensions in the wake of the sectarian murder of
Catholic Kevin McDaid in Coleraine in May.


Marching Season: Currently Calm;
Minor Incidents
--------------


17. (C/NF) While there have been reports of typical incidents at
flashpoints during the height of this year's "marching season"
celebrated by Orange Lodges and loyalist organizations, so far
there has been no real violence and currently little fear among
political and community leaders of any serious trouble.
Bonfires, some as high as 40 feet, are being readied for Orange
celebrations this weekend. Most parades have been taking place
in rural areas and have gone ahead without incident. Two Orange
halls, however, were vandalized over the last few days - one in
Carlisle Circus in Belfast, which is the starting point for the
Belfast July 12 parade, had paint thrown on its front; while
sectarian slogans were daubed on the Orange hall in the town of
Rasharkin, Co. Antrim. In possibly related, tit-for-tat
incidents, five Catholic churches - mostly near Ballymena
(Antrim) - were damaged by thrown-paint incidents in the last
week. The incidents, most likely bids by youths to increase
tensions, were condemned by local politicians, religious leaders
from both sides, and the Orange Order.


MCNICHOLAS