NORTHERN IRELAND EU ELECTION RESULTS: IMPLICATIONS FOR THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L BELFAST 000036


DEPT FOR EUR\WE; NSC FOR SHERWOOD RANDALL

CORRECTED COPY OF BELFAST 00000035 FOR CLASSIFICATION

E.O. 12958: DECL: 6/9/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL UK EI
SUBJECT: NORTHERN IRELAND EU ELECTION RESULTS: IMPLICATIONS FOR THE
FUTURE

CLASSIFIED BY: Susan Elliott, Consul General, Belfast.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)

**CORRECTED COPY OF BELFAST 00000035 FOR CLASSIFICATION**



1. (SBU) The Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) is reeling from a
major electoral shock after a significant number of its
traditional supporters defected to the Traditional Unionist
Party (TUV) and the Conservative/Unionist Party (formerly the
Ulster Unionist Party) in the EU elections. The split among
Unionists allowed Sinn Fein's candidate Bairbre de Brun to take
the largest share of votes (26 percent). The Conservative
Unionist Candidate, Jim Nicholson, (who is also an incumbent EU
parliament member),came in second. For the first time in more
than 30 years, the DUP candidate (Diane Dodds) did not win the
largest percentage of the votes, but rather came in third only
narrowly beating the Social Democratic and Labor Party (SDLP)
candidate (Alban Maginness) in the third round of counting.



2. (C) Sinn Fein's leaders said their victory indicates that the
majority of Northern Ireland's voters support the peace process,
devolution, and the power sharing government. Ms de Brun
attributes her success to her focus on positive politics while
the DUP and TUV candidates spent much of their campaigns
attacking each other. Many Unionist contacts of the Consul
General also expressed dismay that the TUV and DUP candidates
were engaged in negative campaigning against one another. In
fact, several moderate Unionists told the Consul General that
they were planning to vote for Ms. de Brun. The scandals
surrounding the Members of Parliament's expenses scandals and
the drop in popularity of the Labor government may also have
influenced the Unionist vote. Given the turmoil at Westminster,
the UUP's decision to align themselves with the Conservative
Party probably helped Mr. Nicholson's win re-election. The poor
voter turnout also contributed to the results because voting in
traditionally Unionist areas was low.



3. (C) The future of Northern Ireland's power sharing
government could be affected by the DUP's reaction to this
defeat. The DUP will probably rethink their position and
strategies for the future given that the TUV candidate, Jim
Allister (who broke away from the DUP when it went into
government with Sinn Fein),has attracted some of the DUP's
political base. DUP leader Peter Robinson, however, told the
media that while some Unionists find it difficult to be in
government with Sinn Fein, the majority know that power sharing
must continue because "there is not a more acceptable
alternative available."



4. (C) The implications for how the DUP will move forward on the
devolution of policing and justice remain uncertain. Robinson
said prior to the election that the DUP would need to see how
their candidate fared before making a final decision on moving
forward on the devolution of policing and justice. Since the
TUV supports direct rule and no power sharing with Sinn Fein,
their electoral victory may influence and potentially slow the
DUP's progress toward the completion of the final phase of
devolution. DUP Junior Minister and Director of Elections
Jeffrey Donaldson denied that the party would go "back into its
shell" and reposition itself closer to the views of the TUV.
DUP candidate Diane Dodds, however, promised in her acceptance
speech to "thwart the republican agenda" and refused to shake
the hand of Sinn Fein candidate de Brun.



5. (C) The results of the EU elections could have implications
for the next Assembly elections. Under the 2006 St. Andrew's
Agreement, the party with the largest majority appoints the
First Minister. If the three way split in Unionism continues
there is a very good chance that Sinn Fein could win a majority
and take the position of First Minister from the DUP.


ELLIOTT