Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09BELFAST21
2009-03-12 13:45:00
CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN
Consulate Belfast
Cable title:  

SCENESETTER FOR ST PATRICK'S DAY VISIT BY NORTHERN IRELAND'S

Tags:  PREL PGOV PTER ECON EINV UK EI 
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O 121345Z MAR 09 HLB
FM AMCONSUL BELFAST
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1472
INFO NSC WASHINGTON DC
AMEMBASSY LONDON IMMEDIATE 
AMEMBASSY DUBLIN IMMEDIATE 
AMCONSUL BELFAST
C O N F I D E N T I A L BELFAST 000021 


NOFORN

EUR FOR WE; NSC FOR SHERWOOD-RANDALL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 3/12/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER ECON EINV UK EI
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR ST PATRICK'S DAY VISIT BY NORTHERN IRELAND'S
FIRST MINISTER AND DEPUTY FIRST MINISTER

CLASSIFIED BY: Henry Bisharat, Acting Consul General , US
Consulate Belfast.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L BELFAST 000021


NOFORN

EUR FOR WE; NSC FOR SHERWOOD-RANDALL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 3/12/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER ECON EINV UK EI
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR ST PATRICK'S DAY VISIT BY NORTHERN IRELAND'S
FIRST MINISTER AND DEPUTY FIRST MINISTER

CLASSIFIED BY: Henry Bisharat, Acting Consul General , US
Consulate Belfast.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)


1. (C/NF) The visit to Washington by First Minister Peter
Robinson and Deputy First Minister Martin McGuinness comes on
the heels of recent attacks by dissident republicans which have
left two soldiers and one police officer dead. This visit will
allow senior U.S. officials to express their sympathy and
solidarity with Robinson and McGuinness and to publicly praise
the people of Northern Ireland for the cross-community rejection
of this recent violence. It will also provide an opportunity to
praise Robinson and McGuinnes for their work together in a
power-sharing government and progress in moving towards
devolution of policing and justice. Both the Democratic
Unionist Party (DUP) and Sinn Fein, as well as all the other
main political parties, have appreciated the work of the several
Special Envoys during the past decade and their help in moving
the peace process forward. We expect both the First Minister
and Deputy First Minister to press for the naming of a new envoy
to assist with remaining political issues, particularly
devolution of policing, as well as to help promote U.S.
investment. Robinson and McGuinness planned to focus their
visit to the U.S. on promoting investment. However, the recent
attacks have overshadowed their plans, and their departure for
the U.S. was twice delayed due to the attacks. Despite the
global economic downtown, Northern Ireland officials believe
their region remains an attractive base for U.S. investors due
in part to its skilled workforce. Northern Ireland's economy
should fare better than the rest of the UK during the economic
downturn. The weak British pound has helped increase tourism
and retail shopping, especially in border areas.

Dissident Republic Activity
--------------


2. (C/NF) Northern Ireland's threat level was increased to
"severe" from "substantial" in early March, just days before two

soldiers and one police officer were killed by dissident
republicans. In the days before the attack, Chief Constable of
Northern Ireland Sir Hugh Orde termed the threat posed by
dissident republicans as the highest in his seven years on the
job. During the past year, dissident republicans primarily
targeted police officers, in part because the new Police Service
of Northern Ireland (PSNI) has been successful in attracting
candidates from the nationalist community and become the public
face of post-Good Friday Northern Ireland. The discovery of a
300-pound car bomb in January increased concerns and led
directly to the increased threat level. In order to enhance the
police's ability to monitor dissident activities, Orde announced
March 6 that he had requested the assistance of a small number
of military intelligence specialists. Due to inaccurate media
reports of what this meant, Sinn Fein leaders protested
strongly. Sinn Fein does not like the publicity given to
dissident threats and activities, as it implies they are unable
to control their community. That said, dissident groups are
very small in number (probably no more than a few hundred, of
which 60-80 are prepared to carry out attacks according to
security sources in the UK media),have no significant political
support, and are viewed as criminals within the Republican
community. On March 11, throughout Northern Ireland, thousands
participated in silent protests against the killing of security
personnel.


3. (C/NF) First Minister Robinson has received praise for his
handling of the dissident attacks, particularly for his
statesmanlike calls for loyalist paramilitaries not to commit
retaliatory attacks. While Sinn Fein was initially criticized
for its delay in condemning the attack on soldiers (its first
statement was not released until 14 hours the attacks),Deputy
First Minister McGuinness drew universal praise for his actions
in the aftermath of the policeman's shooting. McGuinness, a
former IRA leader, joined Robinson on March 10 in visiting the
murdered policeman's widow and made a statement -- while
standing alongside Robinson and Chief Constable Orde -- that
those involved in the killing were "traitors to the Republican
cause," a characterization which was unprecedented.
McGuinness's statement also reflects the progress made by the
Sinn Fein leadership in its commitment to support the PSNI. Sinn
Fein only recognized the authority of the PSNI in January 2007.

Policing and Justice Devolution
--------------


4. (C/NF) All governmental powers were devolved to Northern
Ireland's power-sharing government on May 8, 2007, with the
exception of powers related to policing and the administration
of justice, which, under the St. Andrews Agreement, were to
devolve to the Belfast government by May 2008. When this date
passed and little progress had been made on devolution, Sinn
Fein became disillusioned because it felt that the DUP was not
taking the necessary steps toward devolution of police and
justice. Starting in June 2008, Sinn Fein began to block
meetings of the Northern Ireland Executive (cabinet) until it
could reach an agreement with the DUP on steps allowing for
devolution. In November 2008, with support from the British,
Irish and U.S. governments, the DUP and Sinn Fein agreed to
complete the legislative steps necessary for devolution of
policing and justice to take place in 2009. PSNI Chief
Constable Sir Hugh Orde has repeatedly stated the delay in
devolution has created a vacuum that dissident republican groups
have used to criticize Sinn Fein's leadership. The British
government and the PSNI have been concerned that this vacuum
would lead to violence against police officers and other
government targets. The USG has been clear in its support for
devolution and the need for all parties to carry out their
commitments under the St. Andrews Agreement. U.S. Special
Envoys have played a crucial role in assisting with this
process, and Robinson and McGuinness will seek assurances a new
Special Envoy will be named. The British and Irish governments
will seek a commitment from the new U.S. administration of its
continued support on this issue and will be keen to learn who
the new Special Envoy will be.


5. (C/NF) Funding for policing and justice has been a key
concern by both the DUP and Sinn Fein. The view in Belfast is
that recent dissident republican attacks will help move the
process forward, especially if the British increase funding for
security in Northern Ireland. The British government has
allocated funds to cover policing and justice functions in
Northern Ireland through 2011, so it will be important for the
British government to satisfy Northern Ireland's politicians
that sufficient funds will be available after that. The British
Government and Sinn Fein are committed to ensuring devolution of
policing and justice happens in 2009. The DUP will be nervous
about devolution being completed before the June EU elections
(DUP is worried about how devolution will play with Unionist
critics of power-sharing),so most observers believe devolution
will happen sometime in the fall, possibly September.


6. (C/NF) Both the DUP and Sinn Fein are confident that the
pending legislation concerning devolution will pass in the UK
Parliament despite Alliance Party objections that the
legislation allows the devolved Justice Minister to lose his
position should he lose cross-community support (a Sinn Fein
demand). The Alliance Party, which is the main non-sectarian
party in Northern Ireland, is likely to take the Justice
portfolio once devolution occurs, and would like complete
autonomy, something Sinn Fein is reluctant to allow. The
Alliance Party has no seats in the UK Parliament, but hopes its
Liberal Democratic allies will help them get the legislation
changed. Neither the British government nor the DUP, which are
sympathetic to Alliance concerns, are willing to delay or change
the legislation to accommodate it, since doing so would upset
Sinn Fein.

Northern Ireland's Economy
--------------


7. (C/NF) The Northern Ireland economy should fare better than
the rest of the UK during the economic downturn, according to a
recent study. According to the latest PricewaterhouseCoopers UK
(PwC) and Northern Ireland Economic Outlook report, the Northern
Ireland economy should decline by three percent compared to four
percent in the rest of the UK. PwC expects recovery to begin
around the third quarter of 2010, with average growth for 2010
slightly above zero. At 5 percent, the level of unemployment in
Northern Ireland is also the lowest of any region in the UK,
which averages 6.3 percent. Housing prices in Northern Ireland
fell by 28 percent in 2008, but economists believe the fall in
prices is about to end. Northern Ireland's economy has also
been helped by the weak British pound, which has boosted tourism
and retail shopping, especially in border areas, by those from
Ireland and other Eurozone economies.

U.S. Economic Investment in Northern Ireland
--------------


8. (C/NF) Despite the economic downturn, Northern Ireland's
leaders are still looking for outside investment as a peace
dividend. In addition to Washington, Robinson and McGuinness
will visit California and New York as part of an effort to
attract badly needed investment. The May 2008 Investment
Conference is still seen as a success for bringing over 80 U.S.
businesses to Northern Ireland. While no direct investments
have yet resulted from the investmeQ conference, Invest NI had
always said it would take time before outside investment was
finalized. Northern Ireland's leaders are still optimistic that
outside investors will see the wisdom of placing operations in
Northern Ireland, particularly due to its skilled workforce,
common culture and proximity to the U.S. relative to other
regions.


BISHARAT