Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09BEIRUT946
2009-08-21 17:14:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Beirut
Cable title:  

GOVERNMENT FORMATION DEADLOCKED OR DEAD END?

Tags:  PREL PGOV PINR LE SY SA 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO8476
PP RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHDH RUEHKUK RUEHROV
DE RUEHLB #0946/01 2331714
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 211714Z AUG 09
FM AMEMBASSY BEIRUT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5593
INFO RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 3552
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 4085
RHMCSUU/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000946 

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA
ALSO FOR IO A/S BRIMMER
P FOR DRUSSELL, RRANGASWAMY
USUN FOR WOLFF/GERMAIN/SCHEDLBAUER
NSC FOR SHAPIRO, MCDERMOTT
DOD/OSD FOR FLOURNOY/KAHL/DALTON
DRL/NESA FOR WHITMAN
OVP FOR HMUSTAFA
PARIS FOR DNOBLES

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/20/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR LE SY SA
SUBJECT: GOVERNMENT FORMATION DEADLOCKED OR DEAD END?

REF: BEIRUT 921

Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).

SUMMARY AND COMMENT
-------------------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000946

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA
ALSO FOR IO A/S BRIMMER
P FOR DRUSSELL, RRANGASWAMY
USUN FOR WOLFF/GERMAIN/SCHEDLBAUER
NSC FOR SHAPIRO, MCDERMOTT
DOD/OSD FOR FLOURNOY/KAHL/DALTON
DRL/NESA FOR WHITMAN
OVP FOR HMUSTAFA
PARIS FOR DNOBLES

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/20/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR LE SY SA
SUBJECT: GOVERNMENT FORMATION DEADLOCKED OR DEAD END?

REF: BEIRUT 921

Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).

SUMMARY AND COMMENT
--------------


1. (C) Lebanese Forces (LF) leader Samir Geagea insisted that
the most effective solution to the current political crisis
would be for the Saudis to appeal to the Syrians to pressure
Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) leader Michel Aoun and
Hizballah to break the current political deadlock. The LF
leader, who traveled to Saudi Arabia recently to meet with
intelligence chief Prince Muqrin and Minister of State and
former Ambassador to Lebanon Abd al-Aziz Khoja, confirmed
that Khoja had then shuttled into Beirut the previous weekend
to meet with Prime Minister-designate Hariri. Geagea was
adamant that Hariri could not back down from his refusal to
meet Aoun's demand to rename Aoun's son-in-law Gebran Bassil
as a minister in the next cabinet, although he feared Hariri
failed to appreciate the harm the drawn-out cabinet formation
process would have on the next government.


2. (C) Geagea dismissed discussion of Kataeb leader Gemayel's
possible defection from March 14 as empty threats that were
merely a ploy by Gemayel to increase the number of Kataeb
ministers in the next cabinet. An increasing number of
contacts question if Hariri has cornered himself. End
summary and comment.

GEAGEA: TELL SYRIA TO LET TH
LEBANESE MAKE THE DECISIONS
--------------


3. (C) Lebanese Forces leader SamirGeagea insisted that the
easiest and most effective solution to the current political
crisis would be for the Saudis to appeal the Syrians to
pressure Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) leader Michel Aoun and
Hizballah to break the current deadlock. Prime
Minister-designate Saad Hariri also was urging the Saudis to
do the same, Geagea told the Ambassador and PolOff during an
August 21 meeting at his home in Maarab. Geagea was wary of

more direct Syrian involvement, however, and said it is
crucial for the Saudis to mitigate direct Syrian
interference. "Syria must let the Lebanese make the
decisions," he stressed, asking the U.S. to intercede with
the Saudis on behalf of Hariri to break the current logjam.


4. (C) Geagea dismissed the possibility that President Michel
Sleiman would possess the key to unblock the situation. "It
will come from Riyadh," he assessed. He urged that the U.S.
to push the Saudis to talk to Syria, "but don't let them in
(to Lebanon's internal affairs)." Geagea was unsure whether
Hizballah was actively directing Aoun to play the role of the
spoiler. "We don't know if they are encouraging him, but for
sure they are having fun with (the process)," he assessed in
support of his conviction that Hizballah and Iran were
satisfied with Aoun's latest antics. "They get what they
want, but without consequences," he judged.

GEAGEA: HARIRI HAS FUMBLED
CABINET FORMATION
--------------


5. (C) Geagea reported that following his meetings in Saudi
Arabia with Khoja and Saudi intelligence chief Prince Muqrin
earlier this month, he was convinced that the Saudis had a
plan to solve the current political deadlock, although he
added he was not privy to the details. Geagea said his sense
was that the Saudis did not want to be seen as asking the
Syrians for their assistance. "They want to tell them, not
ask," he insisted. Geagea confirmed that Saudi Minister of
State and former Ambassador to Lebanon Abd al-Aziz Khoja had
slipped into Beirut the previous weekend to meet with Hariri.
Geagea criticized Hariri's measured response to Aoun's
provocations in which Hariri underscored his constitutional

BEIRUT 00000946 002 OF 002


role as Prime Minister-designate, arguing that Hariri should
have challenged Michel Aoun directly. "If you don't have the
will for confrontation, then you cannot be (a part of)
politics in Lebanon," he insisted.


6. (C) Geagea was adamant that Hariri could not back down
from his refusal meet Aoun's demand to include caretaker
Minister of Telecommunications Gebran Bassil in the next
cabinet. "The victory or loss of Gebran Bassil will be seen
as a victory or loss for either March 14 or March 8. We
cannot retreat." Geagea warned the Ambassador not to be
optimistic about the next government when it takes shape.
"Yes, it will be better than the current government, but by
how much? We are in a deadlock. A dead end." Geagea said that
although he and his allies wanted Aoun to be a part of the
government, the FPM leader could not be the one to dictate
what that government looks like. Hariri failed to appreciate
the harm a drawn-out government formation process would have
on the next government, according to Geagea. "Now he's
playing tough. We needed that at the beginning in the first
one or two weeks, but not now." The longer it takes Hariri
to form the government, Geagea believes the weaker his
premiership will be.

SPURNED KATAEB SUSPENDS
MEMBERSHIP IN MARCH 14
--------------


7. (C) Geagea referred to fellow March 14 leader Amine
Gemayel as a "pain in the ass" and dismissed Gemayel's
speculation on possible defection from March 14 as empty
threats that were merely a ploy by Gemayel to increase the
number of Kataeb ministers in the next cabinet. Noting that
March 14 SecGen Fares Souaid had proposed that the 71 members
of the parliamentary majority meet, Geagea assessed that this
could occur soon if Progressive Socialist Party (PSP) leader
Walid Jumblatt "keeps his word." Geagea believed Jumblatt
would support the meeting in principle but would try to
postpone. The meeting would not take place under the banner
of March 14, however, because Jumblatt would not agree to it.
Geagea, who said he had been in SMS contact with Jumblatt
throughout the recent crisis, was puzzled by the Druze
leader's departure from the March 14 coalition, observing
that Jumblatt now has "nowhere to go."


8. (C) Meanwhile, Druze MP and close advisor to Walid
Jumblatt Akram Shehayyeb suggested to PolOffs in a separate
meeting that the Saudis and the Syrians had run into problems
with their rapprochement after the Saudis whetted the
Syrians' appetite by giving too many concessions too quickly.
As long as there is only a caretaker government in place,
the government is incapable of taking any real decisions, he
continued. On the other side, there is "no daylight between"
Syria and Iran on Lebanon policy at the moment, he said.

COMMENT
--------------


9. (C) With Jumblatt and Gemayel staking out their positions,
Hariri-Geagea coordination remains key to the PM-designate's
efforts to move forward. Whether or not stalled Syrian-Saudi
rapprochement is in fact blocking Lebanon's government
formation, Khoja's repeated visits have led an increasing
number of contacts to question whether Hariri will be able to
form a viable government without the assistance of his Saudi
patrons. Hariri has issued a statement in which he expresses
hope that the Holy Month of Ramadan will be an opportunity
for Lebanese to rise above the wounds of the past and urges
rejection of futile media and political bickering. Michel
Aoun and Syria's allies have been effective in creating doubt
in many Lebanese minds, however, as to whether there is any
end in sight to the cabinet formation deadlock.

SISON