LEBANON: RIVALRY WITHIN THE PLO, PM'S LIAISON SAYS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000088

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/21/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR UNSC MARR MOPS SY LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: RIVALRY WITHIN THE PLO, PM'S LIAISON SAYS

REF: A. BEIRUT 0078

B. BEIRUT 0039

Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

Summary
--------------

1. (C) Highlighting that the Palestinian camps in Lebanon are
"calm for now," the GOL's chief liaison for Palestinian
issues, President of the Lebanese-Palestinian Dialogue
Committee (LPDC) Khalil Makkawi, stressed that PM Sinoria had
done a good job communicating with Palestinians during the
Israeli-Hamas conflict in Gaza. He reflected that
Palestinians in Lebanon remained calm because they understand
the sensitivity of the Lebanese population to the camps in
Lebanon, particularly after Nahr al-Barid. Makkawi confided
there is a simmering power struggle within the PLO in Lebanon
which Palestinian Authority President Abbas has not dealt
with.


2. (C) Makkawi mentioned that, because he wanted to "preempt"
political party discussions before the June parliamentary
elections in Lebanon, the LPDC will soon convene two
workshops with all political parties to open a dialogue and
urge parties not to make Palestinian matters a campaign
issue. End summary

LET'S NOT LOSE WHAT WE HAVE
--------------


3. (C) DCM, accompanied by PolMilOff, met LPDC President
Khalil Makkawi at his office January 22. He stated finding a
solution to the Israeli-Arab conflict was critical to
Lebanon's future. On GOL reaction to Gaza, Makkawi praised
PM Siniora for a good job communicating to Palestinians in
Lebanon a "clear signal" that the camps must remain calm. He
said that Siniora acted quickly to convene a meeting at the
Grand Serail of all Palestinian factions, including Hamas,
early in the Gaza crisis to ask for restraint.


4. (C) He said that "now" the camps are quiet and should
remain so because Palestinian leadership was sensitive to the
risks of tension in the camps, particularly following the
2007 conflict in Nahr al-Barid camp. He stressed that
despite the antagonistic Hamas-PLO relations in Gaza,
relations among Palestinian groups in the camps were stable
and Hamas-PLO disputes would not spill over to Lebanon.
However, in a separate meeting January 21, March 14 leader
Saad Hariri told the Ambassador he was worried that the
PFLP-GC, with help from Iran, would use discontent in the
camps to create an "intifada" against Fatah (septel).

ROCKETS INTO ISRAEL:
SYRIA PLAYED A ROLE
--------------


5. (C) Like others have, Makkawi speculated that the
Palestinian Front for the Liberation of Palestine-General
Command (PFLP-GC) might have fired the several rockets into
Israel on January 8 and 14, but he said "I'm confident" it
could not have happened without Syrian knowledge. He added
the Syrians always think they are "the guardians" of the
region and are "full of "self-importance." The Syrian
government uses events like the Gaza conflict to strengthen
its position vis-a-vis its people, he claimed.


6. (C) He assessed that the Israelis, based on their
relatively restrained response to the rockets, might have
concluded that the rockets from Lebanon were instigated by
"outsiders", not Lebanese. With a more harsh response, all
sides could have been drawn into a Syrian "trap" he
cautioned.

TROUBLE IN THE RANKS
--------------


7. (C) Speaking on the January 19-20 Kuwaiti-hosted Arab
summit, in which President Sleiman participated, Makkawi
concluded the rapproachment made during the talks could be

BEIRUT 00000088 002 OF 002


helpful in bringing about a regional peace, but only time
will tell.


8. (C) He noted that within the PLO in Lebanon, there was a
simmering power struggle between the PLO representative in
Lebanon, Abbas Zaki, and the commander of Fatah in Lebanon,
Brigadier Sultan Abu al-Aynayn. Makkawi noted that the
conflict continues because PLO President Mahmoud Abbas knows
al-Aynayn could cause trouble in the camps, and Abbas will
not speak up against him. He reflected on all the recent
events, saying, he was "curious" to see how the "Palestinian
house" in Lebanon would organize itself.

ELECTIONS IN ISRAEL AND LEBANON
--------------


9. (C) Makkawi worried over the February Israeli elections.
He believed the election of opposition candidate, Benjamin
Netanyahu as Prime Minister could be very detrimental to
progress on peace talks between Israel and the PLO. He
stated future peace talks depend on the roles Israel, Syria,
Iran and the U.S. decide to play. He added, the new Obama
administration's engagement was "critical," because so much
was at stake in the region.

10 (C) Remarking on the upcoming June parliamentary elections
in Lebanon, Makkawi assessed the results will depend on the
Christians vote, especially the Maronites. Concerning the
aspect of expatriates returning to vote, Makkawi said it was
unclear how many could get to Lebanon to vote in a one day
election period. Previously, they may have had more impact,
especially in the Christian districts, because the election
period was spread over many days.


11. (C) The LPDC wants to take a proactive stance in
addressing Palestinian issues with all Lebanese political
parties, Makkawi noted, and thus the LPDC will convene two
"workshops," one in March and one in April, he said. The
workshops are intended to "preempt" the use of the
Palestinian presence in Lebanon in the election. He hopes to
force parties to take a stand on this in the campaigning
process.

COMMENT
--------------


12. (C) Makkawi's assessment that the Palestinian camps in
Lebanon will stay calm post-Gaza crisis was encouraging. He
firmly believed that all the key Palestinian groups in
Lebanon want to keep the situation in the Palestinian camps
calm. His comments on struggles for dominance within the PLO
in Lebanon underscore the fragility of good relations among
them. End Comment.
SISON