LEBANON: YET ANOTHER ATTEMPT AT CHRISTIAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000867

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/29/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR UNSC MARR MOPS LE SY
SUBJECT: LEBANON: YET ANOTHER ATTEMPT AT CHRISTIAN
RECONCILIATION

REF: A. 08 BEIRUT 1406

B. 08 BEIRUT 1637

Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).

SUMMARY AND COMMENT
--------------


1. (C) March 14 (Kataeb) MP Sami Gemayel and
opposition-aligned MP Suleiman Franjieh initiated yet another
attempt at Christian reconciliation with a July 29 luncheon.
Gemayel (Amine's son) reportedly hopes to engineer
reconciliation between Franjieh and Patriarch Sfeir, who have
been at odds since Franjieh accused Sfeir of meddling in
politics. Gemayel's eventual goal is reconcile Franjieh with
Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea, whom Franjieh blames for
the murder of his parents and sister during the civil war.
Franjieh is unlikely to bring his ally, Free Patriotic
Movement leader Michel Aoun, into the reconciliation efforts.
For this reason, and because this is far from the first
attempt at Christian reconciliation, most observers do not
believe the latest round will amount to anything. End
summary and comment.

GEMAYEL, FRANJIEH FIND
COMMON GROUND
--------------


2. (C) "Sami Gemayel is serious about Christian
reconciliation, but does not hold false illusions," Jean
Pierre Katrib, advisor to Kataeb MP Sami Gemayel told PolOff
on July 29. Katrib said the July 26 "reconciliation" lunch
between the Gemayels (Sami and his father, former President
Amine Gemayel) and opposition-aligned MP Suleiman Franjieh
was a follow-up to Sami's meeting in early July with
Franjieh, and would not be the last meeting.


3. (C) Sami Gemayel and Franjieh reportedly disagreed on the
role of Hizballah's weapons and the blocking third concept
for cabinet formulation while finding common ground on the
need for government decentralization and opposition to
Palestinian naturalization. (Note: Franjieh and his ally,
Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) leader Michel Aoun, frequently
accuse March 14 Christians of advocating for naturalization
of the Palestinians currently living in Lebanon, by way of
drumming up opposition to March 14; however, no one in March
14 supports naturalization. End note.)

RECONCILIATION TO INCLUDE
PATRIARCH AND GEAGEA
--------------


4. (C) According to Katrib, Franjieh offered to mediate
between Gemayel and Aoun, an offer Gemayel declined in part
because he has his own interlocutors within the FPM (MP Alain
Aoun). For his part, Gemayel is reportedly intent on
reconciling Franjieh (but not Aoun) with Patriarch Sfeir
(reftels). (Note: Katrib said the last time Gemayel met
Aoun was November 2007, and ultimately was "burned" by Aoun
purportedly because Aoun acted under Syrian orders and pulled
out of talks. End note.) Following Gemayel's July 29
meeting at the Patriarch's summer residence, Sfeir stated
publicly that his doors were open to all, including Franjieh.


5. (C) Franjieh, who holds Lebanese Forces leader Samir
Geagea responsible for killing his parents and sister in 1978
when Geagea was a Kataeb member, is willing to meet Geagea,
Katrib added. Geagea stated publicly on July 29 that he was
ready to meet Franjieh. (Note: In an earlier attempt at
Christian reconciliation, Geagea apologized to Franjieh in
September 2008, to which Franjieh responded, "A leopard
cannot change its spots" (ref A). End note.)

AOUN THE STUMBLING BLOCK
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BEIRUT 00000867 002 OF 002




6. (C) Despite the extensive media coverage on
intra-Christian reconciliation throughout the week, most
observers voice skepticism that this latest attempt will lead
to anything more than rhetoric. The Patriarch, the Maronite
League, and even President Sleiman have all dabbled in
Christian reconciliation over the last two years without
success (reftels).


7. (C) Any substantive effort to truly bring about
reconciliation requires the participation of Aoun, the
Christian leader with the largest support base. Katrib
indicated that Gemayel's focus was not on Aoun, which could
mean that Gemayel realizes the futility of reconciling with
Aoun at this point and is attempting to split Franjieh from
Aoun. Based on Aoun's alleged fealty to Syria, his inclusion
may need to wait until he receives the green light from
Damascus.

COMMENT
--------------


8. (C) We previously reported that the September 2008 round
of reconciliation attempts occurred in the wake of
Druze/Sunni reconciliation efforts with Hizballah (ref A).
Similarly, recent overtures between Druze leader Walid
Jumblatt and Hizballah could play a role in prompting
Christian to reconsider reconciliation as they feel
threatened by improved relations between the Muslims and
Druze. End comment.

SISON