COMPROMISE REACHED ON SHIA REPRESENTATION IN NEW

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000850

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA
ALSO FOR IO A/S BRIMMER
P FOR DRUSSELL, RRANGASWAMY
USUN FOR WOLFF/GERMAIN/SCHEDLBAUER
NSC FOR SHAPIRO, MCDERMOTT
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DRL/NESA FOR WHITMAN
OVP FOR HMUSTAFA
PARIS FOR JMILLER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/27/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR LE
SUBJECT: COMPROMISE REACHED ON SHIA REPRESENTATION IN NEW
CABINET

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires a.i. Denise Herbol for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Advisor to Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri,
Nader Hariri, confirmed that an agreement has been reached
over Shia representation in the presidential bloc in the next
cabinet. Hariri emphasized that the consensus candidate
would not be a "king minister," but rather a member of the
President's ministerial bloc and will be appointed without
any conditions from the Shia parties. Nevertheless, the
President is expected to hold the decisive vote required for
majority cabinet decisions. FPM head Michel Aoun appears to
have been kept in the dark about the agreement, and it is
unclear if he will assume the role of spoiler. No compromise
has been made on portfolio distribution, according to Hariri,
although he expects current Minister of Defense Elias al-Murr
and Minister of the Interior Ziad Baroud to return in the
next cabinet. Other March 14-allied parties are preparing
their lists of ministerial candidates. End summary.

SHIA PARTIES AGREE
TO CABINET COMPROMISE
--------------


2. (C) Advisor to PM-designate Saad Hariri, Nader Hariri,
confirmed to PolOff on July 28 press reports in the newspaper
As-Safir that an agreement has been reached over Shia
representation in the presidential bloc of the new cabinet.
This position is seen as the key to cabinet formation and is
in addition to the other five Shia seats in the 30-member
cabinet. Hariri reported that on the evening of July 27,
President Sleiman presented the name of Lebanese American
University professor Adnan as-Sayyed Hussein to
representatives of Amal and Hizballah as a candidate for the
Shia representative of the President's ministerial bloc.
Both parties agreed to his nomination, and Hariri underscored
that PM-designate Hariri "has confidence" in Hussein.


3. (C) Hariri emphasized that Hussein would not be a "king
minister," but rather a member of the President's ministerial
bloc and will be appointed without any conditions from the
Shia parties (e.g. that he would refuse to resign in a crisis
to hold the PM hostage). This formula is a subterfuge,
however, since the result will be the same: a cabinet without
an absolute majority (16 ministers) for the March 14
coalition. Although Hariri declined to state that the
cabinet distribution will be 15-5-10
(majority-president-opposition),he implied that the
PM-designate will be flexible in this negotiation with the
President.

AOUN OUT OF THE LOOP?
--------------


4. (C) On the morning of July 28, MP Alain Aoun told senior
political LES that as of the previous evening FPM leader
Michel Aoun was not expecting progress on cabinet formation.
Aoun emphasized that the FPM had not been informed by its
allies of any overnight progress in negotiations, but that an
agreement such as the one outlined in the as-Safir account
would signal that PM-designate Hariri had accepted the
principle of a disguised blocking third. On July 27, Michel
Aoun publicly called for proportional representation in the
cabinet, six ministerial positions for the FPM, including the
Ministry of the Interior.

OFF TO THE RACES:
PARTIES PREPARE MINISTERIAL CANDIDATES
--------------


5. (C) No agreement has been made on portfolio distribution,
asserted Nader Hariri, although he insisted that current
Minister of Defense Elias al-Murr and Minister of the

BEIRUT 00000850 002 OF 002


Interior Ziad Baroud will return in the next cabinet. He did
not clarify what portfolios they will hold, however. The
PM-designate will negotiate the Sunni member of the
President's bloc directly with the President. Hariri would
not speculate on the confession or portfolio of a fifth
minister in the presidential bloc, should such a position be
yielded by the PM-designate to the President.


6. (C) In other cabinet formation news, Druze leader Walid
Jumblatt reported to us that he will push for
opposition-aligned current caretaker Minister of Youth and
Sports Talal Arslan to be a minister under the opposition's
bloc in exchange for a Shia ministership for the majority.
He has previously mentioned current caretaker Minister of
Transport Ghazi Aridi as another definite Druze candidate and
Major Sharif Fayyad or current caretaker Minister of State
without portfolio Wael Abu Faour as other possibilities.
(Note: The Druze are allocated three ministerial positions in
a thirty-member cabinet. End note.) Samir Geagea confidant
Elie Khoury said that the Lebanese Forces will propose four
candidates (although they only expect two ministerial
positions in the end): Imad Wakim, an engineer, for the
Ministry of Public Works; Fadi Saad, a medical doctor, for
the Ministry of Health; George Saade, head of the union of
secondary teachers, for the Ministry of Education; and Elie
Khoury for the Ministry of Economy.

COMMENT
--------------


7. (C) While the agreement on a Shia minister is the key to
cabinet formation in Lebanon's confessional system, it
remains to be seen if Aoun will play the role of spoiler.
Other Christian interlocutors downplayed his ability to hold
the system hostage given his decreased popularity in the June
7 elections, but he remains the Christian leader with the
broadest base of support. End comment.

HERBOL