LEBANON: SINIORA ASSURES GOL OPPOSED TO ROCKET

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000078

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA
NEA FOR JONATHAN PECCIA
ALSO FOR IO A/S HOOK, PDAS WARLICK
P FOR DRUSSELL AND RRANGASWAMY
USUN FOR KHALILZAD/WOLFF/GERMAIN/SCHEDLBAUER
NSC FOR ABRAMS/RAMCHAND/YERGER/MCDERMOTT

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/25/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: SINIORA ASSURES GOL OPPOSED TO ROCKET
ATTACKS

REF: A. STATE 3953

B. STATE 4387

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires William Grant for reasons 1.4 (b) and
(d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) In a January 16 meeting, Prime Minister Fouad Siniora
assured Charge that the GOL was united in its condemnation of
rocket attacks on Israel from Lebanon. He said he had
ordered the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) to coordinate with
UNIFIL on patrolling the border area and preventing further
attacks. Israel had confirmed at the tripartite military
coordination meeting between UNIFIL, Israel, and Lebanon,
held that morning that none of the rockets from the January
14 incident had reached Israeli soil, he said. Israel's
actions with Gaza did nothing but discredit moderate Arabs
and gave Iran a huge victory. Charge also relayed Ref B
points on a U.S.-Israel MOU on countering smuggling. Siniora
was interested in details but skeptical it would have a
significant impact. End summary.

GOVERNMENT UNITED IN CONDEMNATION OF ATTACKS
--------------


2. (C) On January 16, Charge, accompanied by PolEconOff,
called on Prime Minister Fouad Siniora at the Grand Serail.
Siniora advisor Rola Noureddine also attended the meeting.
Charge highlighted the strong USG concern about a possible
escalation of hostilities between Lebanon and Israel as a
result of recent rocket attacks on Israel from Lebanese
territory in retaliation for Israeli action in Gaza (ref A).
Siniora pointed out that he had spoken out strongly on behalf
of the government against the rocket attacks in his statement
following the January 15 cabinet meeting, and he assured the
Charge that the entire Lebanese government, including
Hizballah, was firm in this condemnation. Siniora added that
he had given instructions to the LAF to do joint patrols with
UNIFIL to find the perpetrators of the attacks, if possible,
and to prevent any further rocket activity.

ISRAEL'S MESSAGES TO LEBANESE: WE WILL RESPOND SWIFTLY TO
FUTURE ATTACKS
--------------


3. (C) We saw Siniora just after the regular tripartite
UNIFIL-Israel-Lebanon military coordination meetings had
ended. He claimed that during the meeting, Israel had
confirmed that none of the rockets fired January 14, in
attacks UNIFIL had described as "unprofessional," had landed
on Israeli territory. Noureddine said the Israelis had
responded to the attacks based on radar information, not on
actual explosions in Israel. She added that the Israelis had
also said tht they viewed the attacks as a message, passed
wih the knowledge of Hizballah in an attempt to divet
Israeli forces from Gaza to the northern border.


4. (C) Noureddine said the Israelis had indicated they would
continue to respond immediately to any future attacks,
without coordinating with UNIFIL, and regardless of the
presence of civilians. On a different issue, she also noted
the Israelis had agreed to demarcate another fourteen points
of the Blue Line. Siniora was pleased the Israelis had
responded positively to this push from the Lebanese side to
demarcate the line. He lamented that they had not responded
to other complaints expressed at the tripartite meeting.

ISRAELI ACTION A VICTORY FOR IRAN
--------------


5. (C) The Charge noted the USG concern about the
continuation of the attacks, which undermined support for
Lebanon in the U.S. Congress. Siniora asked Charge to view
the situation "on the macro, rather than the micro level."
He said Israeli actions in Gaza discredited the position of
moderate Arabs across the region, and granted Iran a "great

BEIRUT 00000078 002 OF 002


breakthrough." He believed that despite the damage Israel
has inflicted on Hamas, "Hamas is not going away." He
pointed to unsuccessful past attempts by Israel to destroy
extremist groups, and meanwhile, he said, moderate forces in
the region suffer politically in the face of a humanitarian
disaster. The only ones who win are the Iranians, he
stressed.


6. (C) Noureddine expanded on this idea, saying Iran has
played a "double game," not directly instigating violence,
but attempting to play a diplomatic role. While moderate
Arab regimes were blamed for not doing enough to help the
Gazans, Iran was successful at pitting Arabs against Arabs,
while looking merely like a sympathetic observer.

U.S.-ISRAEL MOU
--------------


7. (C) Charge outlined points in Ref B about the memorandum
of understanding to be signed by Secretary Rice and Israeli
FM Livni on countering weapons smuggling into the Gaza strip.
Siniora asked how it would work; Charge responded with
points in Ref. Siniora expressed skepticism the MOU would
have significant impact.
GRANT