LEBANON: SAFADI DESCRIBES FOREIGN INTERVENTION IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000764

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA
ALSO FOR IO A/S BRIMMER
P FOR DRUSSELL, RRANGASWAMY
PARIS FOR JMILLER
USUN FOR WOLFF/GERMAIN/SCHEDLBAUER
NSC FOR SHAPIRO, MCDERMOTT
DOD/OSD FOR FLOURNOY/KAHL/DALTON
DRL/NESA FOR WHITMAN
OVP FOR HMUSTAFA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/08/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR ECON SY SA FR QA LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: SAFADI DESCRIBES FOREIGN INTERVENTION IN
LEBANON'S GOVERNMENT FORMATION

REF: RIYADH 896

Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) In a June 9 meeting with the Ambassador, Tripoli Sunni
leader and caretaker Minister of Economy Mohammad Safadi said
the Saudis had made a serious negotiating mistake in
accepting the Syrian demand for a pre-government formation
meeting of Lebanese political leaders with the Saudi King and
Syrian President in Damascus. Because of the Saudi "error,"
the regional reconciliation and government formation
processes are "stuck," he declared, and would not move
forward until Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri reached
out to the Syrians himself. He believed the French, Qataris,
and Egyptians were opposed to Hariri's designation as Prime
Minister, preferring Tripoli Sunni Najib Mikati for the
position.


2. (C) Safadi said Druze leader Walid Jumblatt and Amal
leader Nabih Berri had agreed in principle to leave their
respective political blocs to unite under the president, but
Syria would not allow Berri to ally with Jumblatt. He stated
that President Sleiman was determined to have at least five
ministers in the new cabinet, despite what Hariri might want,
and that Hizballah would not insist on a blocking minority
for the opposition. Safadi asserted that March 14 is most
likely "dead," given that Jumblatt had drifted away from the
alliance and its leaders were working on their own agendas.
He expressed a desire to stay on as Minister of Economy and
Trade in the new government. End summary.

THE SAUDI MISTAKE
--------------


3. (C) The Ambassador, accompanied by Pol/EconOff, called on
Tripoli Sunni leader Mohammad Safadi in his private office in
Beirut July 9. Safadi, who made his fortune in Saudi Arabia
and is close to the royal family, assessed that because of a
lack of experience, Saudi King Abdullah, his intelligence
chief Prince Muqrin, and his son Prince Abdelaziz had made a
grave miscalculation in their negotiations with Syria about
Lebanon. While the Saudis were anxious to move quickly in
drawing Syria away from Iran, recounted Safadi, the Syrians
were settling in for long negotiations. "The Syrians can
talk forever. They are professional negotiators," said
Safadi. "They always ask for the Rolls Royce, even if they
really want a Cadillac." The Rolls Royce they asked for in
this case was a meeting in Damascus bringing together the
Saudi King, Syrian President Bashar Asad, President Michel
Sleiman, Hariri, and the other political leaders of Lebanon.
According to Safadi, this was Syria's initial bargaining
position, which they knew was impossible. The shocking thing
is that the Saudis said yes, he added incredulously.


4. (C) Safadi explained that the Saudi "yes" turned out to be
an embarrassment for the Syrians and the Lebanese, and has
left everything "stuck," with both Saudi-Syrian
reconciliation and Lebanese government formation at a
standstill. The only way beyond the current situation,
supposed Safadi, was for Hariri himself to reach out to the
Syrians, if not directly then through a mediator. Safadi
believed the Syrians would accept a Hariri visit to Damascus
after cabinet formation, because what they want is peace with
the Sunnis in Lebanon, something that only Hariri can offer.
It is therefore in Syria's interest for Hariri to succeed in
forming a government, he said.

FRANCE, QATAR, EGYPT
DON'T WANT HARIRI
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5. (C) Safadi disclosed that the French and the Qataris were

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against Hariri's appointment as PM, preferring Najib Mikati
for the premiership. French President Nicolas Sarkozy in
particular was anxious to break the "Hariri grip" on France
that held when Saad's father Rafiq was PM and Jacques Chirac
was at the Elysee, said Safadi. In addition, he added, the
French know Mikati well, because of a joint venture in the
1990s between France Telecom and Mikati's firm to run
Lebanon's first mobile telecom company. Given the
convergence of interests, Safadi gauged that the French and
Qataris had begun talking to the Egyptians, who also oppose
Hariri's appointment. All of these actors are hoping Hariri
will fail, believed Safadi.

BERRI LEAVING MARCH 8?
--------------


6. (C) Safadi believes that Walid Jumblatt and Nabih Berri
have agreed to break off from March 14 and March 8
respectively to form their own parliamentary bloc under the
president's auspices, though Safadi joked that a bloc with
two such wily leaders would more likely be a bloc "to
strangle the president." According to Safadi, Syria had
agreed that Berri could leave Hizballah and Aoun to be
independent, but they so far had not given him permission to
ally with Jumblatt, who had angered the Syrians with his
virulently anti-Syrian rhetoric in recent years. Safadi did
not believe Hizballah would have the leverage to insist that
Berri stay in March 8 if Syria approved his move. "Hizballah
will not have a choice," he said. "Berri is Syria's man, not
Iran's."

SHAPE OF THE CABINET
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7. (C) On the internal cabinet formation process, Safadi
confirmed that Hariri was still advocating a 16-10-4
distribution of cabinet seats (16 majority, 10 opposition, 4
for President Sleiman),but the President was insistent he
should receive at least five ministries. He said the
opposition's demand for a blocking third of the cabinet would
not be an issue, as Hizballah had received a Saudi guarantee
that the cabinet will not discuss any controversial issues
(such as Hizballah's weapons) unless there is a
pre-negotiated consensus on how to move forward. Safadi
noted that after the elections, Hizballah no longer viewed
Sleiman as a neutral broker, sensing that he is actually
pro-March 14, so the Saudi guarantee is crucial.

FUTURE OF MARCH 14
--------------


8. (C) Safadi declared that he was "with March 14, but there
is no March 14 anymore." He said he had declared his
participation in Hariri's Lebanon First bloc and therefore
now considered himself more a Hariri ally than a member of
the March 14 alliance. He doubted the March 14 leadership
would meet again, particularly given Walid Jumblatt's strong
criticisms of his colleagues in recent weeks, and the other
March 14 leaders' post-election preoccupations.

RETURN TO MINISTRY
OF ECONOMY?
--------------


9. (SBU) When asked about what role he would play in the new
government, Safadi said he would likely take the "low
pressure" route and ask to remain at the Ministry of Economy
and Trade. "Unless I choose the high-pressure job and they
offer to make me Prime Minister," he added.

SISON