LEBANON: SOVEREIGNTY, STABILITY, AND SELF-INTEREST

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 000758

SIPDIS

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/22/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL LE SY SA
SUBJECT: LEBANON: SOVEREIGNTY, STABILITY, AND SELF-INTEREST

REF: A. RIYADH 896

B. BEIRUT 746

Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Most Lebanese observers tell us they are confident
Prime Minister-Designate Saad Hariri will be able to form a
government, though the process may take time. As
Saudi-Syrian negotiations on the formation of Lebanon's
government continue, however, the question posed in Ref B has
become increasingly relevant: Which is more important to the
Lebanese, their country's sovereignty, or its stability?
March 14 Christian contacts insist the concepts are not
mutually exclusive, and Hariri has continued to stress that
he plans to form the new cabinet without the interference of
outside actors. Nonetheless, all contacts acknowledge that
good relations between the Saudis and the Syrians are good
for Lebanon, and indeed some Lebanese political figures are
positioning themselves for a change in the regional power
dynamics by seeking to reconcile with long-time foes. March
14 leaders seem to accept the idea of Hariri visiting
Damascus, but not until a cabinet is agreed upon (though this
could still be before it is formed). Meanwhile, Hariri
continues his internal consultations on government formation,
while President Sleiman has remained publicly quiet,
discussing the shape of the new cabinet in private meetings
with the PM-designate. End summary.

GOVERNMENT FORMATION
IN EVERYONE'S INTEREST
--------------


2. (C) With internal consultations and foreign negotiations
ongoing, Embassy contacts seem confident that Saad Hariri
will eventually be able to form a government. In a July 7
meeting with the Ambassador, Kataeb party leader Amine
Gemayel assessed that successful cabinet formation was in the
interest of all parties, including Michel Aoun's Free
Patriotic Movement (FPM) and Hizballah. He said Aoun and
Hizballah were looking to integrate into the political system
to gain legitimacy, and therefore would not completely
sabotage government formation. Druze leader Walid Jumblatt
told the Ambassador the same day that a government would be
formed, but he would make no predictions as to when, arguing
that Syria was in no hurry to see it happen. He was resigned
to the fact that Syrian-Saudi negotiations -- and not
internal consultations -- would lead to a new cabinet.

STABILITY WINNING
OVER SOVEREIGNTY
--------------


3. (C) Such outside interference has not seemed to faze most
Lebanese contacts, though March 14 Christian leaders Samir
Geagea and Amine Gemayel both have expressed dismay at
Syrian-Saudi intervention. Gemayel explained that Lebanon is
the only country where sovereignty and stability supposedly
contradict each other, when in fact they should reinforce
each other. Most Embassy contacts, however, see regional
developments as crucial to Lebanon's internal stability.
Caretaker PM Fouad Siniora, Hariri, and others consistently
point to the importance of regional peace for resolving
Lebanon's internal disputes, particularly concerning
Hizballah's weapons.


4. (C) The current Syrian-Saudi negotiations are viewed by
many in that context. Jumblatt told the Ambassador he is
particularly concerned about the possibility of violent
Sunni-Shia conflict (in which the Druze minority he
represents could be caught in the middle),and saw
Saudi-Syrian reconciliation as a means of calming tensions.
He believed the Saudis, who have their own Shia minority in

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the Eastern Province were working to draw the Syrians out of
Iran's orbit and stop them from provoking sectarian strife in
the Arab world. In the context of Lebanon, Jumblatt said,
"The Syrians are out. They are not coming back. We need to
figure out how to negotiate with them." If the Saudis
managed to pull Syria back into the Arab fold, it would come
at a price, believed Jumblatt, possibly in the form of a
visit to Damascus by Saad Hariri.


5. (C) Gemayel also acknowledged the importance of regional
developments to Lebanon's future. He quizzed the Ambassador
on developments related to Middle East Peace, Israel's plans,
and the U.S. relationship with Syria, proclaiming that U.S.
actions would "determine the situation in Lebanon." Jumblatt
put his lack of concern for Lebanon's sovereignty in the
current context more bluntly, saying, "Saudi-Syrian
reconciliation is more important than Lebanon's government
formation."

A TIME FOR RECONCILIATION
--------------


6. (C) In the meantime, March 14 figures have been using the
uncertainty of the current internal situation to reach out to
political foes, in preparation for what outside developments
might bring to Lebanon's political dynamic. Gemayel sent his
son, newly-elected MP Sami Gemayel, on "reconciliation"
visits to opposition Christian Marada party leader Suleiman
Franjieh and FPM MP Alain Aoun. Jumblatt was in frequent
contact with Amal's Nabih Berri, various Hizballah contacts,
and opposition Druze leader Talal Arslan even before the
elections. In addition, Hizballah, which has remained
reasonably quiet during the post-election period, declared on
July 7 through its Deputy SYG Sheikh Naim Qassim, that "the
road is paved for political agreement." Qassim praised
Hariri, with whom he said Hizballah had an "open and positive
dialogue," and expressed support for better relations with
Hariri's Future Movement and Jumblatt's Progressive Socialist
Party.

WHEN WILL SAAD
GO TO DAMASCUS?
--------------


7. (C) Lebanon's political class now agrees in principle to
the idea of Saad Hariri visiting Damascus, though it is still
unclear if the visit will occur before or after cabinet
formation. Gemayel spoke out strongly against Hariri's visit
occurring before the government is formed, saying it would
appear that he was asking Syrian President Bashar Asad to
bless his cabinet. If Saad goes after the formation of the
cabinet, said Gemayel, he could go as head of government, in
a position to negotiate on the important bilateral issues
Lebanon has with Syria, such as border demarcation, arms in
the Palestinian border camps, and the return of Lebanese
detainees. March 14 SYG Fares Souaid told us July 7 that the
Syrians were pushing for the meeting to occur before the
cabinet has been determined, knowing that March 14 Christian
leaders would object strongly, in an effort to break up the
March 14 alliance. Jumblatt pointed to a third meeting
scenario, in which Hariri could agree on the composition of a
cabinet after consultation with the various stakeholders,
officially take the office of Prime Minister through a
presidential decree, and then visit Damascus before the
cabinet is announced publicly. This might offer the best
compromise solution, according to Jumblatt.

INTERNAL CONSULTATIONS
CONTINUE
--------------


8. (C) Since Hariri's return from Jeddah (Ref B),he has
continued internal consultations on cabinet formation,
meeting on July 7 with FPM's Gebran Bassil. He is still
pushing for a 16-10-4 cabinet seat distribution (16 for the
majority, 10 for the opposition, 4 for President Michel

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Sleiman) in an attempt to ensure a majority share of the
cabinet for March 14. Jumblatt advisor Marwan Hamadeh
cynically noted that this majority is not particularly
significant for cabinet decisions of national importance,
which require a two-thirds majority, but the simple majority
would allow Hariri to push through decrees affecting his
business interests, such as those of Hariri-controlled real
estate company Solidere, or the selling of public land to
Gulf partners. Jumblatt believed ultimately Hariri would
give in to the President's demand for at least five
ministers, since this would be an easier concession than
going to Damascus before the cabinet is formed. "Better to
give in inside, than outside," added Hamadeh.


9. (C) While Embassy contacts tell us consistently that
President Sleiman is asking for five or six ministers in the
new cabinet, he has made no public statements on the subject,
though he has apparently broached it with Hariri. Jumblatt
said Sleiman had been "ok" during this period, but should be
more active in the cabinet formation process, a sentiment
echoed by Souaid, who wondered why Sleiman did not take more
initiative and push for a new government.

COMMENT
--------------


10. (C) When Saudi-Syrian talks began after the elections,
Aoun decried Saudi meddling, ignoring Syrian participation.
Meanwhile, Gemayel and Geagea have not objected as much to
Saudi intervention as to Syria being included in
decision-making on Lebanon. Aoun has gone back on his
previous declarations that losing MP candidates should not be
ministers, proposing that his son-in-law Gebran Bassil (who
lost his MP bid in Batroun) return to the Telecom Ministry.
In response, former March 14 MP Nayla Mouawad commented to
the Ambassador June 8 that this was good news, since it left
open the possibility for her son, Michel, who also lost his
parliamentary race, receiving a ministry. Meanwhile,
Jumblatt is positioning himself so he can once again ride the
prevailing political wind, in the interest of his Druze
community, on whose support he depends for his political
power. Sovereignty, stability, self interest -- each factor
bears weight as lengthy deliberations continue to shape the
Lebanese political landscape. End comment.

SISON