LEBANON: HARIRI BECOMES PM-DESIGNATE, BUT TENSIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000723

SIPDIS

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/28/2019
TAGS: PGOV PINR LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: HARIRI BECOMES PM-DESIGNATE, BUT TENSIONS
REMAIN

BEIRUT 00000723 001.3 OF 002


Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Saad Hariri formally became Prime Minister-designate
on Saturday, June 27. Opposition Christian leader Michel
Aoun and Hizballah have neither endorsed Hariri nor committed
to participating in the government Hariri will now try to
form. However, Aoun continues to insist that a unity
government with either proportional representation or veto
power should be used as the formula. Despite Hariri and
opposition-aligned Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri publicly
endorsing each other, spurts of violence over the weekend
between Hariri's Mustaqbal party supporters and Berri's Amal
party supporters suggest tensions are high and the message of
support has not filtered downwards. Procedurally,
Lebanon's political process is moving forward, but it will
neither be easy nor without setbacks. End summary.

HARIRI DESIGNATED
PRIME MINISTER
--------------


2. (SBU) By midday on Saturday, June 27, Saad Hariri had
secured 85 (of 128) votes through President Michel Sleiman's
constitutionally-mandated consultations with the various
parliamentary blocs and parliamentarians, and Sleiman
designated Hariri Prime Minister-designate. In his remarks
from the presidential palace following his nomination, Hariri
committed himself to forming a government that would preserve
the state's institutions, sovereignty and independence, while
at the same time ensuring continued economic prosperity and
development. He called Lebanon's challenges "real and
serious," but said they represent also many opportunities.
While Hariri invoked the images of the "martyrs of freedom
and independence," he stated his intention to form an
efficient government that respects Lebanon's democratic
system, the Taif Accord, and unites Lebanese citizens "in the
face of Israeli threats."


3. (SBU) Hariri's nomination was endorsed by
opposition-aligned Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri, despite
comments in previous days suggesting Berri might not support
Hariri. Neither Hizballah nor opposition Christian leader
Michel Aoun supported Hariri's nomination; saying instead
that their support was conditional on Hariri's ability to
form a unity government. Aoun continues to insist on a
cabinet that is based on either "proportional representation"
(for instance, Aoun's bloc naming 50% of the 15 Christian
seats) or one that allows for a "blocking third" veto power
for the opposition. (Note: Hariri met with Aoun on June 28
during his mandatory consultations with former PMs. Hariri
described the meeting "as a good one" without further
elaboration. End note.) Hariri and his March 14 coalition
allies have indicated they prefer a cabinet distribution with
16 seats for the majority, four seats for President Sleiman,
and ten seats for the opposition in a 30-member cabinet.

HARIRI AND BERRI
ENDORSE EACH OTHER,
BUT SUPPORTERS CLASH
--------------


4. (C) Despite the public endorsements from members of the
political opposition for Hariri's nomination, armed clashes
between supporters of Hariri's Mustaqbal and Nabih Berri's
Amal party on June 28 left one person dead. March 14
Christian leader Samir Geagea told the Ambassador June 29
that the violence had spread quickly (septel). Geagea, who
had gone to meet with Hariri just blocks from where some of
the clashes took place, said the violence traced a Sunni-Shia
dividing line from the seaside through West Beirut south to
the Hizballah-controlled southern suburbs. Eyewitnesses in
the neighborhoods where fighting occurred noted the presence
of "masked men" with weapons on the streets for a short time

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before the incident occurred. Reportedly, Lebanese Armed
Forces soldiers effectively intervened to end the incident,
but did not act before receiving a direct order to shoot.


5. (C) Minister of Culture Tamam Salaam called the incident
"unacceptable" and said he had telephoned LAF Commander Jean
Kahwagi about it. Kahwagi, reportedly, told Salaam that the
LAF would take "firm measures" to prevent similar incidents
in the future. In addition, Salaam expressed disappointment
at the absence of Internal Security Forces (the police) in
the area and the lack of comment by Minister of Interior Ziad
Baroud. Berri's senior advisor, Ali Hamdan, said on June 29
that the clashes were distracting public opinion away from
other developments, such as Druze leader Walid Jumblatt's
statements that, Hamdan claimed, his party would not
participate in the cainet.

COMMENT
--------------


6. (C) While the political process is moving forward
according to procdure, it is unlikely the cabinet formation
will occur without lengthy negotiations. Constitutionally,
there is no deadline by which Hariri must form the next
government. The violent clashes between supporters of
opposing political parties have been isolated thus far, but
reflect tensions that existed before the June 7 elections.
Conciliatory messages between the political leaders either
are not filtering downwards or are not being heeded. End
comment.

SISON