Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09BEIRUT714
2009-06-26 15:23:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Beirut
Cable title:  

LEBANON: MIKATI "CONCERNED" ABOUT THE DIRECTION OF

Tags:  PGOV PREL PREF ECON KPAL KCOR UNSC LE IR 
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P 261523Z JUN 09
FM AMEMBASSY BEIRUT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5207
INFO RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 3433
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 000714 

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OVP FOR HMUSTAFA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/26/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL PREF ECON KPAL KCOR UNSC LE IR
SUBJECT: LEBANON: MIKATI "CONCERNED" ABOUT THE DIRECTION OF
A HARIRI GOVERNMENT

REF: BEIRUT 705

Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

SUMMARY
----------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 000714

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA
ALSO FOR IO A/S BRIMMER
P FOR DRUSSELL, RRANGASWAMY
PARIS FOR RWALLER
USUN FOR WOLFF/GERMAIN/SCHEDLBAUER
NSC FOR SHAPIRO, MCDERMOTT
DOD/OSD FOR FLOURNOY/KAHL/DALTON
DRL/NESA FOR WHITMAN, BARGHOUT
OVP FOR HMUSTAFA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/26/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL PREF ECON KPAL KCOR UNSC LE IR
SUBJECT: LEBANON: MIKATI "CONCERNED" ABOUT THE DIRECTION OF
A HARIRI GOVERNMENT

REF: BEIRUT 705

Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) In a June 24 meeting with the Ambassador, former Prime
Minister and recently elected MP Najib Mikati worried that if
parliamentary majority leader Saad Hariri became Prime
Minister, he would compromise on economic reform and
Hizballah's arms while facing difficulties from Syria.
Mikati believed cabinet formation would take time, with the
opposition causing problems, and that the best route would be
for the new PM to choose a team of technocrats. He affirmed
that he would remain independent and not join Hariri's
parliamentary bloc. He said the Lebanese want to see
improvements in education, electricity, water, and the
business environment, and that the U.S. could play a role in
some of these areas.


2. (C) Mikati said Hizballah's objective is to export its
revolution to the West, and it would use the Palestinian
issue to justify its existence. He reiterated that Hizballah
and the opposition wanted Saad Hariri as PM, because he would
allow them to consolidate their position. He praised
President Obama's commitment to solving the Arab-Israeli
conflict, but complained that no Arab leaders had come
forward as a partner following the President's June 4 speech
in Cairo. He said events in Iran would result in a weaker
Khamenei and a weaker Ahmadinejad, even if they continue to
govern, which could have an effect on Hizballah. Mikati was
emphatic that Lebanon needed more streamlined decision-making
in preparation for its membership on the UN Security Council
in 2010. End summary.


SUPPORT -- AND CRITICISM
-- FOR HARIRI
--------------


3. (C) The Ambassador, accompanied by Pol/EconOff, called on
Najib Mikati in his Beirut office June 24. Mikati, who had
been touted before the elections as a possible next Prime
Minister, began by expressing his full support for Saad
Hariri as the next PM, saying this was "not an issue." He
then launched into a long explanation of why Hariri had been
excellent as a Majority Leader -- the "guardian of the
temple," as Mikati put it -- but that as PM, he suspected he
would begin "taking treasures from the temple," i.e.
compromising on his principles. Mikati hypothesized that
Hariri would rule like his father Rafiq, compromising on
economic reform by dividing up the economic pie with
political rivals, while letting Hizballah keep its weapons
and consolidate its position in Lebanon. In addition, said,
Mikati, "Syria will squeeze him to the last drop." He
continued, "Saad will be Prime Minister, but it will cost a
lot, and I worry we will lose everything we have gained in
the past four years."


4. (C) Mikati believed government formation would be
difficult, with the opposition making demands to stall the
process. "They will do something to distract you everyday,"
he said. The longer the process takes, and the more
compromises the opposition extracts, thought Mikati, the more
time and space Hizballah will have to build its state within
the state. Mikati said the best path Hariri could take to
form a government would be to build a team of professionals
he can work with. He pointed to current caretaker Interior
Minister Ziad Baroud as an example of the type of minister
Hariri should assemble, and noted that he himself had formed
a successful technocratic government of only 14 ministers
during his short stint as PM in 2005.


5. (C) Noting that Saad Hariri was having a meeting with MPs
at the same time, Mikati affirmed that he would not join

BEIRUT 00000714 002 OF 003


Hariri's bloc, as he wished to remain completely independent.
(Note: Hariri announced the formation of the "Lebanon
First" bloc shortly after the Ambassador's meeting with
Mikati. See reftel. End note.)

PRIORITIES FOR THE NEW GOVERNMENT,
POTENTIAL U.S. ROLE
--------------


6. (C) Mikati said the Lebanese people want their new
government to focus on important domestic issues,
particularly education, but also electricity, water, and
industry. He believed the government should work to provide
incentives to keep young educated Lebanese in the country to
build the economy. He assessed that the U.S. could play an
important role with its continued support of the Lebanese
security forces, but also through assistance for improving
higher education, building e-government structures to
streamline the bureaucracy and minimize corruption, and
expanding economic opportunities in the north, Mikati's home
region.

REGIONAL EVENTS
AFFECT HIZBALLAH
--------------


7. (C) Mikati said that Hizballah's long-term objective is to
export the Iranian revolution to the West, and that it is
using Lebanon's Palestinian refugees as a justification for
its existence. He worried again that Saad Hariri as Prime
Minister would allow Hizballah to consolidate its strategic
position on the Eastern Mediterranean to further this goal.
He assessed that because the opposition expected this, it was
enthusiastic to have Hariri as PM. Mikati strongly praised
President Obama's June 4 Cairo speech and his commitment to
Arab-Israeli peace, which would presumably resolve Lebanon's
Palestinian refugee problem and remove Hizballah's
justification. Nonetheless, he lamented the fact that no
Arab leader had stood up to partner with the President in his
efforts.


8. (C) Mikati gauged that protests in Iran were exposing
cracks in the Iranian regime, and he believed both the
Supreme Leader Khamenei and President Ahmadinejad would
emerge weaker as a result. This would inevitably affect
Hizballah, he said, though it is unclear whether it would
make it more or less aggressive.

LEBANON READY FOR
THE UN SECURITY COUNCIL?
--------------


9. (C) Mikati was concerned that Lebanon is unprepared for
its upcoming membership in the UN Security Council (UNSC) in

2010. He noted that Lebanon had only five diplomats at its
UN mission in New York, while current UNSC member Thailand
has 40. He said he had spoken to Foreign Minister Salloukh,
who promised he would send 10 additional diplomats to New
York. Nevertheless, said Mikati, the urgent need would be to
streamline the mission's decision-making processes. Each UN
vote cannot come back to Lebanon's fractious cabinet for
consideration, he stressed. "We will be the Arab
representative on the Security Council, which is a great
honor for us. But it will not be an honor for the Arab world
to bebrought into the middle of our domestic disputes,"he
exclaimed.

COMMENT
--------------


10. (C) Mikati's "concern" about Hariri taking the Prime
Minister slot came up throughout the meeting. Though his
arguments against Hariri are in some cases valid, it is clear
he was speaking out of real disappointment that he himself is
not up for the job. Moreover, on June 26, Mikati declared

BEIRUT 00000714 003 OF 003


that he will announce his preferred PM candidate on June 27,
after his consultations with President Sleiman, adding that
he hoped the country will see "the face of Saad (Arabic for
joy)" in the next PM. End comment.
SISON