LEBANON: JUMBLATT: "NASRALLAH DIVULGED NO SECRETS"

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/26/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR MOPS IS SY LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: JUMBLATT: "NASRALLAH DIVULGED NO SECRETS"

Classified By: Classified by Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.
4 (b) and (d)

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) In a wide-ranging discussion with the Ambassador on
June 25, Druze leader Walid Jumblatt commented that neither
Speaker Nabih Berri nor majority leader Saad Hariri were
"completely happy" with the conduct of their coalition
members during the vote to choose the Speaker earlier that
day. Opposition leader Michel Aoun "was bitter at everyone,"
and the efforts by party leaders to add MPs to their blocs
was solely to gain a seat at the National Dialogue
discussions. Jumblatt emphasized that economic issues and
the mounting national debt were the country's most pressing
problems for the new government. He did not believe much
effort would be devoted to electoral reform and said any
attempt at administrative reform in the new government was a
"mission impossible."


2. (C) Jumblatt relayed that his June 18 meeting with
Hizballah SYG Hassan Nasrallah divulged "no secrets," and was
mostly a rehash of past events. Jumblatt was not sure of the
consequences coming out of the current unrest in Iran but
noted it was a conflict not created by "newcomers," but
within the establishment because people were "fed up."
Jumblatt speculated on the choices for new ministers, saying
he hoped Ziad Baroud would stay on at Interior, as well as
Elias Murr at Defense. Jumblatt noted that efforts to build
a Common Border Force in Lebanon to secure the borders was
difficult due to conflicts within the several Lebanese
security agencies. He also defended the rights of
Palestinian refugees in Lebanon. End Summary.

ELECTING THE SPEAKER
--------------


3. (C) Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, in a June 25 meeting
with the Ambassador and Poloff, noted that the reelection of
Speaker Nabih Berri for a fifth term earlier that day had not
gone as smoothly as expected. He said the process made
neither Berri nor majority leader and presumptive
PM-designate Saad Hariri "completely happy." Berri received
only 90 of 127 ballots cast, obtaining less than the expected
level of support from MPs. Jumblatt reported that Hariri had
asked his Future Movement MPs to show internal solidarity and
support Berri in this opening session of the new parliament.
The number of votes indicated that some Future Movement MPs
had joined those of Samir Geagea's Lebanese Forces (LF) and
Amine Gemayel's Phalange Party and not voted for Berri. In
response, the opposition refrained from voting for the Future
Movement MP, Farid Makari, for Deputy Speaker.


4. (C) Jumblatt said Christian opposition leader Michel Aoun
was "bitter with everyone" over his showing on the June 7
parliamentary elections and was trying to work deals in
forming parliamentary blocs in anticipation of the cabinet
formation process and National Dialogue. Jumblatt quipped
that the new blocs being formed since the election were being
created with the sole intention of gaining a place at the
National Dialogue discussions. (Note: The current criteria
for participation at the National Dialogue requires a party
bloc to have a minimum of four MPs. Originally March 8 and
the opposition were represented by Berri, Hizballah, Aoun and
Elie Skaff. If opposition attempts at realigning party blocs
are successful, March 8 could possibly gain two more seats at
the National Dialogue table. End Note).

MOUNTING DEBT A
MOUNTING PROBLEM
--------------


5. (C) Although Jumblatt would offer no estimates on when a
new cabinet would be formed, he declared that the most
pressing problem for the new government would be Lebanon's

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mounting national debt, already over 150% of GDP. He urged
that the next finance minister should be a "technocrat."
Jumblatt hoped that Interior Minister Ziad Baroud would
remain in the government, and concluded that Elias Murr would
probably remain as Defense Minister. He cautioned that
privatization of the mobile phone system in Lebanon was an
attempt to bring down the debt but its positive aspects would
only affect one year's budget, and Hariri had too many
"sharks" within his entourage looking to make offers,
criticized Jumblatt. On administrative reform, such as
reform of the social security system, Jumblatt disparaged
that it would be "mission impossible." He also did not
believe much work would be done soon on electoral reform,
despite the approach of the 2010 municipal elections. He
surmised that the current political leaders had no interest
in electoral law change given vested interests. (Note: We
assumed he was also speaking for himself. End Note)

THE PRESIDENT'S MINISTERS
--------------


6. (C) Jumblatt noted Sleiman would seek to name four or five
ministers in the new cabinet. Jumblatt mused that a 15-5-10
division of ministers between the majority, the President,
and the opposition would not offer a true majority, but he
believes that is what Sleiman wants (while Hariri preferred
16-4-10).

IRAN: PEOPLE ARE "FED UP"
--------------


7. (C) Jumblatt relayed that his June 18 meeting with
Hizballah SYG Hassan Nasrallah divulged "no secrets," and was
focused on Shia-Druze security. The talk was mostly a rehash
of past events, he said. Jumblatt recounted his discussion
with Nasrallah on the 2006 war and the use of suspected Sunni
foreign fighters allegedly brought in by Hariri during the
May 2008 clashes in Beirut. Turning to recent Iranian
protests, Jumblatt was not sure of the consequences for
Hizballah coming out of the current unrest but noted it was a
conflict created by people "fed up" within the establishment,
and not by "newcomers."

GOOD LUCK WITH BORDER SECURITY
--------------

8 (C) Commenting on the June 19 meeting outgoing PM Fouad
Siniora had with Common Border Force donor country
representatives and ambassadors, Jumblatt disparaged the
effort to come up with a Lebanese force comprised of
contingents from the Lebanese Armed Forces, Internal Security
Forces, General Security and Customs. He declared they "hate
each other," and professed the effort would be difficult due
to their internal conflicts. Jumblatt noted a peaceful
Lebanon was historically a consequence of regional peace,
admitting that recent Syrian-Saudi talks had a positive
affect on Lebanon.

UNSC, Palestinians
--------------


9. (C) Jumblatt stated that Lebanon gaining a seat on the UN
Security Council in 2010 would be very problematic. He mused
about the difficult position it would be in if/when a
resolution came up such as calling for sanctions on Iran.
Jumblatt also noted that the Palestinians in Lebanon needed
some greater opportunities for employment and that Nahr
al-Barid needed to be rebuilt, as the Palestinians deserved a
certain level of proper living conditions.
SISON