LEBANON: SCENESETTER FOR VISIT OF GENERAL DAVID

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 BEIRUT 000702

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA
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P FOR DRUSSELL, RRANGASWAMY
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E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/24/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER MCAP MOPS IS SY LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: SCENESETTER FOR VISIT OF GENERAL DAVID
PETRAEUS

REF: A. BEIRUT 687

B. BEIRUT 644

C. BEIRUT 634

D. BEIRUT 570

Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) General Petraeus, Embassy Beirut welcomes your visit
which comes three weeks after Lebanon's June 7 parliamentary
elections. Saad Hariri's March 14 coalition retained the
parliamentary majority by an unexpected margin, and has a
71-57 edge over the opposition in the new parliament. The
government headed by PM Fouad Siniora went into a caretaker
status on June 21. With the formation of a new government
pending, your visit provides an excellent opportunity to
reinforce the message of strong U.S. support for Lebanon and
the U.S.-Lebanese military relationship. During your visit,
you will meet with President Michel Sleiman, caretaker Prime
Minister Fouad Siniora, March 14 majority leader and
presumptive next PM Saad Hariri, caretaker Defense Minister
Elias Murr and Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) Commander Jean
Kahwagi.


2. (C) The formation of a new March 14-led government led by
Saad Hariri is likely to be a protracted process if the
opposition insists on maintaining "blocking third" veto
powers in the cabinet. There is speculation that the
opposition might relent on the blocking third, however, if
Hizballah is offered assurances that discussion of
Hizballah's weapons will be moved to the National Dialogue
forum. Little progress has been made in the implementation
of relevant UNSCRs which call for the demarcation of the
Lebanon-Syria border and call for an end to weapons
smuggling, although caretaker PM Siniora has promised to
highlight to the new PM and his government the ongoing work
in developing a Common Border Study and Common Border Force.
Meanwhile, UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) continues to
play an important role in maintaining calm in its area of
operations between the Litani River south to the Israeli
border. End Summary.


3. (C) KEY MESSAGES
--------------

(SBU) Your visit provides an excellent opportunity to deliver
several key messages, as follows:

--Confirm the strength of the U.S.-Lebanese military
relationship and U.S. plans to continue providing support to
strengthen state institutions and state authority throughout
Lebanon.

--Urge the new government to work towards the full
implementation of UNSCRs 1559, 1680 and 1701, including the
disarmament of all militias.

--Emphasize the U.S. view that a stable, secure Lebanon with
strong state institutions will counter interference from
Syria and Iran.

--Address positively the U.S. military assistance funding and
delivery timeframes, explaining that quickly front loading
the delivery pipeline will not serve the LAF well without the
concomitant training and service support.

--Emphasize the inherent strengths of the U.S. assistance
program over competing donor offers by noting the U.S. offers
the complete package of political support and service and
training components.


MIL-ASSISTANCE:
EXPECTATIONS, EXPANSION & EQUIPMENT
--------------

4 (C) The U.S has provided Lebanon nearly $500 million in

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military assistance since early 2005. Vice President Biden
visited Lebanon May 22 and, in a speech to the leadership of
the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF),made clear that the United
States was committed to meeting the Lebanese Armed Force's
needs. The recently announced $69 million supplementary FY
2009 Foreign Military Financing (FMF) package for Lebanon was
highlighted in the Lebanese press as evidence of U.S.
continued commitment to Lebanon. Additionally, there are
commitments in FY 2010 of about $150 million in FMF. Your
visit can reinforce the message that our commitment to the
LAF and Lebanon's stability and sovereignty remains strong.


5. (C) The electoral victory by the pro-Western March 14
coalition has raised expectations in the GOL and LAF that we
will provide more security assistance and deliver it faster
than before. Presumptive PM Saad Hariri recently advocated
with the Ambassador for more assistance in a style similar to
a "Marshall Plan" that would include attack helicopters (Ref
B). Hariri also has said he realizes we cannot provide some
items because of QME concerns but asked that we allow Lebanon
to seek those elsewhere. Caretaker Minister of Defense Elias
Murr, who we believe will stay on in the new government, has
advised Hariri against that, emphasizing the political
backing that comes with U.S. assistance and the service and
training aspects of the current U.S.- Lebanese military
relationship (Ref A).


6. (C) The October 2008 Joint Military Commission (JMC) was
the opening opportunity for U.S.-Lebanese military
collaboration on strategic planning matters. The next JMC,
scheduled for this fall, should provide another occasion to
define and refine long-term scenarios. During your visit you
will hear requests for more U.S. assistance to the LAF.
While underscoring our commitment, you should encourage LAF
efforts to continue to develop its military doctrine and
refine its five-year strategic planning scenarios, which
would help them make more clearly defined security assistance
requests to us.


7. (C) Implementing a more vigorous U.S.-Lebanese military
relationship will require an expansion of our Office of
Defense Cooperation (ODC) off the embassy compound. The LAF
has identified a site, but it requires force protection
upgrades and DOD funding to execute those have not been
approved.

8 (C) You may hear from General Kahwagi or others in the LAF
leadership their apprehension about a planned second tranche
of 46 M60-A3 tanks because of dissatisfaction with the first
10 A-3s that arrived from Jordan in May. They may express
the view that the LAF's more critical equipment needs are for
close air support, and special forces units which address the
most pressing security threat, armed bases outside the
Palestinian camps and volatile Palestinian camps such as Ain
al-Hilwe. LAF Commander Kahwagi often states his desire for
"more fixed wing," aircraft as an necessary component to
fight those security threats. In fact, Kahwagi once remarked
to us "better one plane than 500 tanks."


9. (C) With one Hellfire-equipped Cessna Caravan already in
the LAF inventory, the original FY 09 supplement provided for
two additional Caravan, but given that the supplemental was
cut to $69 million, ODC believes it is now necessary to
reconsider the additional Caravan option and actively pursue
a potentially much better deal using OV-10s.


10. (C) In addition to A-3 tanks and the Caravan, our
equipment assistance delivery pipeline in 2009 includes
deliveries of 60 HMMWVs, 8 RHIB boats, 170 M-203 grenade
launchers, 1200 Datron secure radios and 825 helmets and body
armor sets. During Vice President Biden's May 22 visit, he
noted at an outdoor static display other equipment deliveries
by the U.S. to the Lebanese; M88A1 tank recovery vehicle,
zodiac boats, fire trucks, M249 SAW MGs, M198 Artillery
pieces, demining equipment, 2.5 ton trucks, medical HMMWVs,
and UH-1 Helicopters. The LAF has displayed great diligence
and professionalism in maintaining the equipment, and its
record of accountability for equipment, weapons, and
ammunition alike has been exceptional.


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NEW GOVERNMENT FORMATION
--------------


11. (C) Although the results handed a clear victory to the
pro-western/anti-Hizballah March 14 coalition, forming a
government is the next hurdle. Cabinet formation
negotiations begin after today's election of the
parliamentary speaker and designation of a PM-designate
charged with forming a government. Majority leader Saad
Hariri intends to become Prime Minister, and likely will.
His coalition had a challenging time during the campaign
period keeping the March 14 infighting and disagreements out
of public view. Although Hariri has a cadre of advisors for
political matters, he does not have a team of strong advisors
for policy matters such as foreign or military affairs.
Hariri has maintained an anti-Syrian position and often
requests enhanced U.S. military assistance for the Lebanese
Armed Forces to be used as a deterrent to Syria. Political
observers believe Hariri will be forced to moderate his tone
vis-a-vis Syria to become Prime Minister.


12. (C) Soon after the election, speculation arose on the
likelihood the opposition would insist on retaining a
"blocking third" veto capacity in the cabinet. The
opposition gained veto powers with the blocking third in the
last cabinet. Recent announcements by opposition figures,
including Michel Aoun, reveal the opposition is considering
demands for proportional representation in the cabinet based
on election results. Any conciliatory actions made by
Hizballah and its allies to the new majority in forming a
cabinet would likely be conditioned on the assertion that
discussion of disarming Hizballah is moved to future National
Dialogue sessions.

UNIFIL
--------------


13. (C) Both Lebanon and Israel maintain their declared
commitment to UNSCR 1701, which ended the 2006 Lebanon-Israel
conflict, and continue to engage with the UN towards its
implementation. Since your December visit, sporadic incidents
and alleged UNSCR violations have been addressed promptly and
contained through liaison arrangements UNIFIL maintains under
the tripartite mechanism. There continues to be steady
progress to mark the "Blue Line" between Lebanon and Israel.
Despite some LAF re-deployments from the south (driven by
operational needs in other parts of the country) the LAF has
maintained its operational tempo in coordinated training and
patrol activities with UNIFIL. The Israeli Defense Forces
(IDF) still control the northern half of the village of
Ghajar, but efforts to facilitate its full withdrawal from
Lebanese territory continue through a UNIFIL proposal. The
Lebanese complain regularly about Israeli overflight
violations.

14 (C) The situation in the UNIFIL area of operation (AO)
remains generally quiet. In January, during the crisis in
Gaza, unknown persons launched Katuysha rockets at Israeli
territory, which caused minor damage but no casualties. The
rocket attacks launched from the UNIFIL AO demonstrate there
are still weapons and hostile armed elements ready to use
them. Subsequent joint LAF/UNIFIL search efforts after the
launchings discovered abandoned bunkers, rocket caches, and
other military infrastructure. However, UNIFIL stated in its
June 4 update to the UNSC on the implementation of 1701 that,
to date, it has neither been provided with, nor found, any
evidence of new military infrastructure or smuggling of arms
into its AO. UNIFIL's mandate expires August 31, but with
another one year extension expected, there is no indication
of any planned reductions in its operating mandate or force
structure.


15. (C) UNIFIL carries out over 10,000 patrols monthly and
has continued to exercise full freedom of movement, in
general, throughout the AO. The attitude of the local
population towards UNIFIL continues to be generally positive.
Additionally, work has commenced on building a road parallel
to the "Blue Line" with which the LAF and UNIFIL can patrol
more effectively and rapidly the Lebanese side of the border.
In an effort to create a legacy environment of good

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community relations in the south, UNIFIL has taken on the
mission of training the LAF in a LAF initiated civil-military
(CIMIC) community outreach program intended to positively
link the military units stationed in the south with community
leaders.

UNSCR 1701
--------------


16. (C) President Sleiman supports full implementation of
UNSCR 1701 and has said he would insist on including a
reference to it in the next government's policy statement
(Ref D). However, Israel is officially considered by Lebanon
to be "the enemy." Although UNSCR 1701 outlines requirements
for a Lebanese-Israeli cease-fire, pending a comprehensive
Arab-Israeli peace, GOL interlocutors argue that continued
Israeli occupation of northern Ghajar village and Shebaa
Farms and regular Israeli overflights of Lebanon impinge on
Lebanese sovereignty and territory. In a more positive
development, Israel handed over in May cluster bomb strike
data from the 2006 war to UNIFIL and the Lebanese demining
authorities. In an interview aired June 10 on CNN, Saad
Hariri reaffirmed the GOL position that Lebanon would be the
last country in the region to sign a peace deal with Israel.


17. (C) Special Envoy for Middle East Peace Senator George
Mitchell's June 12 visit was well received in Lebanon. He
met with President Michel Sleiman, PM Siniora, March 14
majority leader Saad Hariri, and opposition-aligned Foreign
Minister Fawzi Salloukh. S/E Mitchell emphasized the United
States' strong support for full implementation of UNSCR 1701.
Remarking that there had been "too much process and not
enough peace," S/E Mitchell noted the United States was
committed to comprehensive peace in the region, but not at
the expense of Lebanon's sovereignty and independence.
Sleiman confirmed Lebanon was ready to participate in an
international conference but not in direct talks with Israel.
Siniora stressed that any solution cannot involve permanent
resettlement of Palestinian refugees in Lebanon. For his
part, Saad Hariri expressed willingness to work alongside the
United States in its efforts towards peace and asked for U.S.
assistance in pushing Syria to stop the weapons flow into
Lebanon. Regarding the current stage of talks, S/E Mitchell
said the United States is looking for Arab gestures to be
made simultaneously with Israeli steps, which together could
create a climate conducive for final status negotiations
between the Palestinians and Israelis.

RELATIONS WITH SYRIA
--------------


18. (C) Lebanon and Syria formally established diplomatic
relations in October 2008. The two sides exchanged
ambassadors in the spring of 2009. Aside from these modest
steps at normalized relations, Lebanon and Syria have yet to
tackle the myriad bilateral agreements signed during Syrian
occupation. Borders between the two countries remain porous
but the GOL and the SARG have engaged in modest cooperation
to add more patrols to certain sections of the border.
Efforts on the implementation of relevant UNSCRs which call
for the delineation of the Lebanon-Syria border, an end to
weapons smuggling, and the disarmament of armed groups in
Lebanon, are admittedly weak. The SARG denies, and the GOL
claims not to have evidence, of weapons smuggling from Syria
into Lebanon. However, on the last full day of his
government's mandate, Prime Minister Fouad Siniora reaffirmed
the ongoing commitment of Lebanon to extend the model of the
Common Border Force to the eastern border, starting with the
first 70 kilometers in northeast Lebanon. Confirming the
status of scores of missing or detained Lebanese in Syria has
been an issue undertaken by the Lebanese-Syrian Higher
Council. In a goodwill gesture, Syria recently released 23
Lebanese detainees, saying most were released with "special
amnesty."

SISON