LEBANON: SINIORA URGES UNSC ACTION USING 1701 MODEL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000007

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA, PM/FO
IO FOR A/S HOOK; PDAS WARLICK
P FOR DRUSSELL, RRANGASWAMY
USUN FOR KHALILZAD, WOLFF, SCHEDELBAUER
NSC FOR ABRAMS, YERGER, MCDERMOTT, RAMCHAND

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/02/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR UNSC MOPS LE IS
SUBJECT: LEBANON: SINIORA URGES UNSC ACTION USING 1701 MODEL

REF: BEIRUT 1808

Classified By: CDA William Grant for reasons 1.4 (b),(d)

SUMMARY
--------------

1. (C) On January 2, PM Siniora convoked Ambassadors and
Charges from UNSC members represented in Beirut and urged
UNSC action to produce an immediate ceasefire in Gaza. He
suggested the Council use UNSCR 1701, which marked the end of
2006 Lebanon-Israel conflict, as a model. He argued that
Israel was repeating with Hamas the same mistake it made with
Lebanon-based Hizballah in 2006, seeking to eliminate a
threat but actually making it stronger. He said he had heard
that the Secretary would be traveling to the region and that
he would try to call her when she did. Siniora was joined by
FM Fawzi Salloukh, who earlier in the day convoked P-5 COMs
in a separate meeting with a similar message. While Salloukh
urged the P-5 to support the Libyan text of a new UNSCR,
Siniora did not mention it. End Summary.


2. (C) Ambassadors or Charges from UNSC members met with PM
Fouad Siniora and FM Fawzi Salloukh on Gaza, at Siniora's
request, on the afternoon of January 2 in the Grand Serail.
The P-5 plus Mexico, Japan, Austria and Turkey were
represented. Earlier that day, Salloukh called a similar
meeting for the P-5 only. The Russian Ambassador missed the
earlier Salloukh meeting but was present for the Siniora
meeting.

ISRAEL MAKING SAME MISTAKES IT MADE IN LEBANON, SINIORA SAYS
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3. (C) Siniora compared Israel's current "mistakes" with Gaza
to similar mistakes it has made in Lebanon. In 1982, he
said, Israel invaded Lebanon to finish off the PLO, but it
did not succeed and instead its actions led to the creation
of a new threat, Hizballah. In 2006, Israel capitalized on
the kidnapping of two of its soldiers to go after Hizballah
but, again, it did not succeed in weakening the threat
against it. Beyond that, Israel's actions in Gaza will
destroy the institutions of the state there and promote
extremism, Siniora argued. And they will bring a new set of
problems for the region.


4. (C) While criticizing Israel's "onslaught," Siniora
acknowledged that a solution must offer "something to
everyone." But he was firm that the first step should be an
immediate ceasefire. He thought that electoral politics were
motivating Israel's actions. He suggested that the UNSC act
quickly on a resolution to end hostilities based on the model
of UNSCR 1701, the resolution that marked the end of the 2006
Lebanese-Israeli conflict. He did not mention the draft
Libyan UNSCR text on Gaza currently before the Security
Council. At the meeting for the P-5 earlier in the day, FM
Salloukh had urged P-5 support for the Libyan text, and did
not mention 1701.

HIZBALLAH WILL NOT TAKE ACTION THAT GIVES ISRAEL AN EXCUSE TO
RETALIATE
--------------


5. (C) Siniora seemed to want to convey that Hizballah
supported the position he was articulating and would not
engage in any aggression against Israel. He made a point of
saying that he was conveying the position of the government
of Lebanon (which includes Hizballah and other opposition
parties) and that it represented a "position of consensus
among the Lebanese." He asserted that all Lebanese parties
agree not to take any actions that would threaten violence in
southern Lebanon, the area that borders Israel. We
"recognize the recent attempts" to cause trouble with Israel,
meaning the LAF discovery on December 25 of eight Katuysha
rockets aimed at Israel from southern Lebanon, and will "keep
our eyes open" to prevent them, he said.


6. (C) In the meeting with Salloukh earlier in the day,
Charge repeated the points Ambassador Sison had made to
Siniora in a December 31 meeting (reftel) that Lebanese

BEIRUT 00000007 002 OF 002


officials should urge Hizballah not to take any offensive
actions against Israel at this time. Salloukh, who is close
to opposition figure Nabih Berri, a Hizballah political ally,
responded that Hizballah is cautious and does not want to
pursue aggression as this would give the Israelis an excuse
to retaliate.

SARKOZY TO EXPAND TRIP TO REGION
--------------


7. (C) The French Ambassador noted during the meetings that
President Nicholas Sarkozy had expanded his regional trip
scheduled for next week and will travel to Egypt, Israel and
the West Bank, as well as Syria and Lebanon, January 5-6.
Sarkozy will be in Damascus in the morning of the 6th and
then travel to Lebanon to meet with Sleiman, Siniora and
Berri and the French UNIFIL contingent before returning to
Paris that evening.





GRANT