LEBANON: THE RISE OF A NEW CHRISTIAN MOVEMENT?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000693

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA
ALSO FOR IO A/S BRIMMER
P FOR DRUSSELL, RRANGASWAMY
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PARIS FOR RWALLER
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NSC FOR SHAPIRO, MCDERMOTT
OVP FOR HMUSTAFA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/23/2019
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL LE SY
SUBJECT: LEBANON: THE RISE OF A NEW CHRISTIAN MOVEMENT?

Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) In a June 22 meeting with the Ambassador, March 14 MP
Michel Pharaon said Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea was
pressuring March 14's independent Christians to join his
voting bloc in parliament. Pharaon noted that many
independent Christians opposed Geagea and were looking for an
alternative. He suggested that an independent bloc of March
14 Christians, loyal to the President, be created. A similar
suggestion was given to the Ambassador in a recent meeting
with Ghattas Khoury, former senior advisor to Saad Hariri
(and failed MP candidate). Regarding the creation of a new
cabinet, Pharaon said the issue of the blocking third would
be the biggest hurdle for cabinet formation. In a June 23
conference attended by the Ambassador, caretaker Minister of
Interior Ziad Baroud predicted that, if all goes well cabinet
formation should be completed within 30 to 45 days. End
Summary.

GEAGEA WANTS MARCH 14
INDEPENDENTS TO JOIN HIM
--------------


2. (C) Greek Orthodox independent MP Michel Pharaon, the
most prominent MP from Beirut's First District, briefed the
Ambassador and PolOff on June 22 about his recent two hour
meeting with Lebanese Forces (LF) leader Samir Geagea.
Geagea told Pharaon that he wanted Beirut I's MPs (all
Christians) to form a voting bloc with his group. Geagea
also wanted three of Zahle's Christian MPs to join his bloc,
and Geagea was planning to meet with them soon to discuss the
issue. Pharaon, however, felt Geagea would not be pleased
with the Zahle group's response.


3. (C) According to Pharaon, constituents in Beirut I would
not support their MPs being aligned with Geagea in a
political bloc. He told Geagea that he wanted to wait a
month before announcing the Beirut group's intentions as to
which bloc the group would join. (Note: Pharaon hinted that
the request for a month waiting period is only a stalling
method to buy time to halt Geagea's continued pressure on the
Beirut I deputies. The MPs have no intentions of joining
Geagea, he said. If they refused Geagea out right, Geagea
could make the MPs' lives difficult, Pharaon said. End
Note.) He also mentioned to Geagea that there were no
political differences between them and tried to placate him
by suggesting that Geagea could chair quarterly meetings of
March 14's Christians.

NEW INDEPENDENT
CHRISTIAN MOVEMENT?
--------------


4. (C) According to Pharaon, many independent Christians do
not support LF or former President Amine Gemayel's Kataeb
Party. These independents are also averse to supporting
opposition-Christian leader Michel Aoun's Free Patriotic
Movement (FPM) because of Aoun's alliance with Hizballah.
Therefore, Pharaon suggested that March 14's independent
Christians form a bloc loyal to the President. This
independent bloc could also serve as a bridge between
Christians aligned with Geagea and Gemayel, and those aligned
with Aoun, to help solve Lebanon's many economic and security
related issues. Such a bloc would not rival March 14's other
Christian parties, namely LF, but would strengthen the
overall March 14 coalition because the independent-Christian
bloc would compliment LF's more conservative Christian MPs.



5. (C) In a June 17 meeting with the Ambassador, Ghattas
Khoury, the former senior advisor to Saad Hariri, and failed
MP candidate, also talked about a new Christian "movement" of
persons supportive of March 14 principles but averse to
joining Samir Geagea's Lebanese Forces. He mentioned

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Minister of State Nassib Lahoud, March 14 Secretary General
Fares Souaid, MP Boutros Harb and himself as the type who
might be attracted to it. Khoury inquired whether or not the
United States would support such an idea. Khoury also noted
that Geagea is attempting to increase his Christian bloc by
wooing new Zahle MPs, March 14 Armenians, and others.

WAITING FOR SAAD'S RETURN
--------------


6. (C) Pharaon said he talked with Future Party leader, MP
Saad Hariri, about the possibility of Beirut I's MPs joining
a bloc. He reported that Hariri told him to wait until his
return before making any decision, as he wanted to consult on
the matter. Pharaon added that he supports the creation of
an independent Christian bloc within March 14's overall
coalition, close to President Sleiman and Christian religious
figures. He also said that March 14's 60-70 members should
vote as one, to elect MP Saad Hariri as Prime Minister. The
optics of 60 to 70 MPs voting for Hariri early on would do a
lot to strengthen March 14's image as a unified coalition,
Pharaon said.

BLOCKING THIRD WOULD BE
A DETRIMENT TO THE NEW GOL
--------------


7. (C) Pharaon said Aoun and opposition leader MP Suleiman
Franjieh (Marada Party) want the new March 14-majority
government to fail. This is why the majority cannot give the
opposition a blocking-third, he added. The 2008 Doha
Agreement should not apply to the soon to be formed
government, according to Pharaon. He also noted that by
giving Aoun and the opposition the ability to block
legislation, it takes power away from President Sleiman, as
this would give Aoun the ability to block President Sleiman's
agenda and reforms Sleiman supports.


8. (C) In a June 23 media interview, Pharaon said, "The
Lebanese will know the identity of those who are cooperating
to implement the constitution, ensure stability and
facilitate the work of President Michel Sleiman as well as
those who are obstructing the state institutions' work during
the cabinet formation." He added that, "Lebanon still needs
international support on the security and political levels
from Arab nations, the EU and the United States in order to
secure stability."

NEW GOL PRIORITIES
--------------


9. (C) Lebanon needs security and stability for awhile,
according to Pharaon. A period of time when Lebanon is not
in the "eye of the storm" is needed, he added. The
priorities for the new government should include dealing with
economic matters, such as passing the 2010 budget, and
passing certain legislation related to Paris III reforms. As
it relates to political matters, border security, and dealing
with the Palestinian military bases would be also be
important issues for the new parliament to tackle. However,
he worried that recent remarks made by Israeli PM Benjamin
Netanyahu suggesting Palestinian refugees should return to
somewhere other than Israel would be detrimental for
Lebanon's future stability. (Note: Lebanon has 12
Palestinian refugee camps and the Government of Lebanon
adamantly opposes permanent resettlement in Lebanon. End
Note.)


10. (C) In a separate June 23 meeting attended by the
Ambassador, caretaker Minister of Interior Ziad Baroud
predicted that the next cabinet would be a participatory one
that "includes everyone." He added that the Ministerial
Statement will most likely be the same as the 2008 statement,
with a few additions. He also expected cabinet formation to
be completed within 30 to 45 days.

SISON