LEBANON: TOYING WITH NABIH BERRI OVER SPEAKER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000670

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA
ALSO FOR IO A/S BRIMMER
P FOR DRUSSELL, RRANGASWAMY
PARIS FOR RWALLER
USUN FOR WOLFF/GERMAIN/SCHEDLBAUER
NSC FOR SHAPIRO, MCDERMOTT
DOD/OSD FOR FLOURNOY/KAHL/DALTON
DRL/NESA FOR WHITMAN, BARGHOUT
OVP FOR HMUSTAFA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/15/2019
TAGS: LE PGOV PINR PREL SY
SUBJECT: LEBANON: TOYING WITH NABIH BERRI OVER SPEAKER
POSITION?

REF: BEIRUT 646

Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

SUMMARY
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1. (C) There have been calls by some in March 14 for Speaker
of Parliament Nabih Berri not to be reelected to his post
unless he commits to conditions, such as promising not to
close the Parliament arbitrarily as he did for 18 months
pre-Doha. Senior March 14 leaders like Hariri and Jumblatt
appear to have endorsed Berri, however -- with conditions.
In the end, we expect Berri likely will be reelected. For
one thing, no other Shia political leader is likely to gain
the requisite support in the Shia community. Choosing a
speaker is the first order of business for the newly elected
parliamentarians, whose mandate will begin June 21.
Parliament must convene within fifteen days from June 21 to
elect a speaker. End summary.

COALITION MEMBERS
DIFFER ON BERRI
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2. (C) March 14 coalition members, never known for discipline
in coordinating political messages, have sent conflicting
signals on the question of re-electing Nabih Berri as Speaker
of the Parliament, the first order of business after the new
parliament begins its mandate. Some March 14 MPs have
proposed alternatives to Berri, including "independent"
pro-Amal MP Abdel Latif Zein or March 14-affiliated Okab
Saqr. While no one believes they could be elected Speaker,
the very suggestion of alternate names is seen as a challenge
to Berri's presumptive reelection.


3. (C) March 14 leaders have not spoken with one voice.
Lebanese Forces Samir Geagea has so far not publicly
supported Berri. Kataeb leader Amine Gemayal told the press
on June 16 he had objections to the actions Berri took
2006-08 when he "considered the previous government
illegitimate (and) when he closed Parliament and hindered the
presidential elections. Majority leader Saad Hariri has told
us that Berri is the "natural choice" (septel),although he
cautioned that Berri should not be able to close parliament
as speaker. Druze leader Walid Jumblatt has publicly
declared his "personal position" of support for Berri.
Hariri and Jumblatt, who have both expressed concern about
and sought to improve Sunni-Shia and Druze-Shia relations
respectively, have an interest in avoiding conflict with him,
but may seek Berri's vow to avoid anything resembling the
eighteen month parliamentary shutdown. (Note: Berri is the
only speaker in Lebanon's history to have closed the
legislature. End note.)

EXACTING CONCESSIONS
--------------


4. (C) Some in March 14 have suggested that the majority send
a signal to Berri by nominating another candidate for the
first two rounds of voting, while eventually backing Berri in
the last round. According to the Lebanese constitution,
candidates for Speaker require a two-thirds majority to win
in the first two rounds of voting. A simple majority is
necessary in following rounds.

COMMENT
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5. (C) For his part, Berri has said he will refuse any
conditions on his election. Because no other strong
candidates exist, he appears confident that he can wait out
any challenges to his first round re-election. Berri
publicly backed Hariri for incoming prime minister, saying it
was the March 14 majority leader's "natural right" as a Sunni
leader and urging the decision to be made by consensus.

BEIRUT 00000670 002 OF 002


Presumably, he expects the same treatment with regard to his
position in the Shia community. While preventing a slam-dunk
re-election of Berri is tempting for March 14, it also has
risks. A shrewd politician, Berri likely will keep any
perceived slight over his reelection in his pocket for
deal-making with the coalition in the coming weeks, given the
upcoming government formation process. Efforts to put Berri
on a leash also risk angering the Shia community. End
Comment.
SISON