LEBANON: AOUN RE-EMERGES, DEMANDING PROPORTIONAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L BEIRUT 000659

SIPDIS

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/10/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR UNSC LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: AOUN RE-EMERGES, DEMANDING PROPORTIONAL
CABINET SHARE

REF: BEIRUT 654

Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Following his Change and Reform parliamentary bloc's
June 10 meeting and in his first public appearance since the
June 7 parliamentary elections, MP Michel Aoun announced that
if there is a national unity government, his parliamentary
bloc would expect a share of seats proportional to its
representation in parliament, six or seven in a 30-member
cabinet. Aoun noted that he supports giving the President
the blocking minority in the new cabinet if the constitution
is amended to reflect this, rather than it being negotiated
with each new cabinet. He also stated that his bloc will
contest the victory by two March 14 candidates in the Metn
district (Aoun won six seats there). Aoun's ally in Zahle
may context March 14's sweep of seven seats there. Aounist
MPs urged to DCM that the United States "turn the page" on
its distant relationship with Aoun. End summary.

AOUN WANTS 7 OUT
OF 30 MINISTERS
--------------


2. (SBU) MP Michel Aoun's Change and Reform parliamentary
bloc convened June 10, the first time following the June 7
elections. Aoun's bloc now consists of 27 MPs including
Marada party leader and newly-elected MP Suleiman Franjieh
and head of the Lebanese Democratic party, Druze MP Talal
Arslan.


3. (SBU) During a televised interview following the meeting,
Aoun's first public appearance since the June 7 parliamentary
elections, he stated that while the opposition did not win
the majority, "It still maintains the popular majority" and
will "insist their participation in the government should be
based on proportional representation."


4. (SBU) Aoun clarified that if there is a national unity
government, his parliamentary bloc would expect a share of
seats proportional to its representation in parliament, six
or seven in a 30-member cabinet. (Note: Aoun has five
ministers in the current cabinet. End note.) He added that
since he represents 50 percent of the Christian votes, he is
entitled to 50 percent of the Christian ministers in cabinet
(or one-fourth of the cabinet, which must be split equally
between Muslims and Christians). Aoun supported giving the
President authority to name some members of the cabinet, but
said the constitution must be amended to reflect a set number
for the president, rather than it being negotiated it each
time. Furthermore, Sleiman's seats should come from all
confessions, rather than just Christians.

WILL CHALLENGE
MURR'S ELECTION
--------------


5. (C) Aoun said his bloc will contest election results in
one district before the Constitutional Council, accusing MP
Michel Murr of intimidation and threat in the Metn district.
(Note: Aoun was referring to the June 7 video broadcast on
his OTV network showing Murr threatening Syriac Orthodox
priest Elias Akkary with the help of armed supporters of his
son, Defense Minister Elias Murr. Michel Murr was allied
with Aoun until 2008, but ran against him in this election.
End note.) We also have heard that an opposition MP in Zahle
may contest March 14's sweep of that district's seven seats.

PREFERS SINIORA,
OVER SAAD, AS NEXT PM
--------------


6. (SBU) Asked if his bloc will vote for Speaker Nabih Berri

to retain his speaker position, Aoun replied, "Is there any
other candidate? If there is another, we will see." As for
the premiership, if he had to choose between Prime Minister
Fouad Siniora and majority leader Saad Hariri, Aoun answered,
"I prefer the original one (Hariri),why accept the fake one
(Siniora)?" Comment: there seems to be wide acceptance among
opposition figures that Saad should be PM. End comment

AOUN MP'S URGE U.S. TO
"TURN THE PAGE" WITH AOUN
--------------


7. (C) DCM met June 11-12 with four Aounist MPs who won
election. One, Ibrahim Kanaan, said his personal view is
that Aoun's Free Patriotic Movement deputies should not join
the new cabinet. Instead, he argued, March 14 should be
accountable for governing themselves and not be able to use
the excuse, as they have up until now, that the opposition's
presence in the cabinet has blocked progress on issues.
According to Kanaan, President Sleiman is damaged following
his well-known support for opponents of Aoun who either lost
or did poorer than expected.


8. (C) Kanaan and MP Farid el-Khazen urged that the United
States "turn the page" on its distant relationship with Aoun.
They argued that Aoun showed again his strength among
Lebanese Christians in the election, has no intention of
trying to remove President Sleiman so that Aoun can become
president and supports many reforms the United States should
support, such as anti-corruption measures.


9. (C) In a separate meeting with Pol/Off, Aoun press advisor
May Akl admitted that the FPM had lost some Christian support
because of its allegiance with Hizballah. Suggesting that
Aoun himself felt the same way, Akl said the FPM had not
gotten much out of its alliance and felt Hizballah needed to
do more to support its Christian ally. Echoing MP Kanaan's
complaints, she said Hariri was being hypocritical by using
the Aoun-Hizballah alliance to scare Christian voters
pre-elections, but now that he has won, he is extending a
hand to the group. Akl suggested that if FPM did not get his
"fair share" in the cabinet, the FPM might decide not to
participate in the government. She also relayed that the FPM
would fight to keep Aoun advisor and son-in-law Gebran
Bassil, who failed to secure an MP seat in Batroun, as
Telecom Minister.

SULEIMAN FRANJIEH
--------------


10. (C) Meanwhile, advisors to opposition Christian Marada
leader Suleiman Franjieh Rony Arayji and Richard Haykal were
clearly happy with Marada's newly-won three seats (all in
Zgharta) in parliament. In a June 11 meeting with Pol/Econ
Chief and Senior LES Political Advisor, they admitted that
Franjieh's list won by a narrow margin, but attributed this
to vote buying and expatriate votes, some using illegal ID.
Nationally, they viewed the electoral results as a loss for
the Patriarch, President Sleiman, and the United States,
which they accused of hedging its bets on the creation of an
independent bloc close to the President.


11. (C) The advisors confirmed that Marada would be part of
Aoun's bloc and would follow his lead on cabinet formation.
Asked if Marada was seeking a Ministry, they said it was up
to Aoun. Haykal (an AmCit and Vice President of AmCham)
argued that Marada's participation in the next government
also would depend on the government program, which he argued
should clearly lay out a road map to implement political and
economic reforms, a reference to the National Dialogue, and a
commitment to increasing the powers of the President. He
also insisted that all sensitive issues, including
Hizballah's arms but also issues like a new electoral law, be
discussed first in the Dialogue, rather than the cabinet or
parliament. (Haykal's boss Franjieh will be a new
participant in the Dialogue as a result of his electoral

victory.)

COMMENT
--------------


12. (C) The comments by Aoun's and Franjieh's advisors
indicate the Christian opposition's demands, more than those
of Hizballah, may cause delay in cabinet formation. While
Hizballah's interest lies more in preserving the blocking
third to protect its arms, Aoun's motivation is pure power,
and ensuring that he receives the recognition he believes he
deserves as representative of most (albeit less than before)
Christians. Thus, although there is nothing in the
constitution that says cabinet must reflect representation in
parliament, the early signs are that Aoun and his allies will
push for a quarter of the ministerial positions.


13. (C) Add to this the inevitable competition between March
14 Christian leaders Samir Geagea and Amine Gemayel for the
March 14 Christian cabinet positions and we conclude that it
could be a long time before cabinet formation is finally
complete. Geagea's Lebanese Forces (LF) and Gemayel's Kataeb
each received five seats in the new parliament, with Geagea
claiming three more independents in his bloc for a total of
eight. Their fierce intra-March 14 battle for cabinet seats
was a primary reason last year's cabinet formation process
dragged on for six weeks. End comment.
SISON