LEBANON: GEAGEA ON ELECTIONS, SECURITY, AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000645

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA
ALSO FOR P FOR DRUSSELL, RRANGASWAMY
DRL/NESA FOR WHITMAN, BARGHOUT
USUN FOR WOLFF/GERMAIN/SCHEDLBAUER
NSC FOR SHAPIRO, MCDERMOTT
OVP FOR HMUSTAFA
DOD/OSD FOR FLOURNOY/KAHL/DALTON
PARIS FOR RWALLER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/10/2014
TAGS: PGOV PREL LE IS SY
SUBJECT: LEBANON: GEAGEA ON ELECTIONS, SECURITY, AND
CABINET FORMATION

REF: A. BEIRUT 634

B. BEIRUT 639

C. BEIRUT 644

Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) In a June 9 meeting with the Ambassador, Lebanese
Forces leader Samir Geagea hailed March 14's victory in the
June 7 parliamentary elections (Ref A) as a "big
manifestation of democracy in the Middle East." Satisfied
with the outcome of the results, Geagea said March 14 must
now move away from "campaign mode" and begin focusing on
rebuilding the country. Security remains a concern to
Geagea, who expressed the need to replace the current head of
the military intelligence (LAF G-2),BG Edmond Fadl, with
someone stronger. On cabinet formation, Geagea was confident
that March 14 would be able to form a new government soon.
He said that the best support the United States can provide
at this time is to stay quiet during the cabinet formation
process and to avoid the perception that the United States is
meddling in discussions. End Summary.

ELECTIONS AFTERMATH
--------------


2. (C) The Ambassador, accompanied by the DCM and PolOff,
called on Samir Geagea at his office in Maarab June 9.
Geagea advisors Elie Khoury and Joseph Nehme also attended
the meeting. Geagea, well-pleased with the election results,
hailed March 14's victory as a symbol of democracy in the
region, stressing that it is now time for the country to "dig
itself out of the trenches of the resistance" and begin
rebuilding itself. "We should, as March 14, meet up soon to
discuss," he said, "but we have old scores that need to be
settled first." Geagea expressed satisfaction with the
content of Hizballah SYG Hassan Nasrallah's June 8 speech
(Ref B),describing it as a "democratic speech" that could
set the pace for positive developments in the near future.



3. (C) Noting that Christian voters determined the results of
the elections, Geagea opined on what caused the Christian
voters to sway towards March 14. He explained that there are
a plethora of factors that could have caused this phenomenon
to occur, but believed that Free Patriotic Movement leader
Michel Aoun made a strategic mistake by aligning with
Hizballah. Historically, the Christians have been aligned
with the state, noted Geagea, explaining that Aoun's decision
to ally with Hizballah instead of with President Sleiman or
the Patriarch caused March 8 to lose the majority in the
elections.


4. (C) When asked about possible parliamentary blocs, Geagea
predicted that President Sleiman will not have his own
parliamentary bloc, and that independent parliamentarians
will sway toward either March 8 or March 14. He was
confident that Marada movement leader Sleiman Franjiyah,
whose party won three seats in Zgharta, would remain aligned
with March 8, while Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri will stay
where he is with Hizballah.

MUST REPLACE MILITARY
INTELLIGENCE HEAD
--------------


5. (C) Geagea was pleased with the performance of the
security forces during the elections, highlighting the minor
incidents of violence throughout the process. However, he
said that he is still concerned about the army, explaining
that if there was not a political will for peaceful
elections, the army could not have done their job on June 7.
Geagea told the Ambassador that in his view, current head of

BEIRUT 00000645 002 OF 002


the military intelligence (G-2),BG Edmond Fadl, was weak and
must be replaced with someone stronger. He compared the
current attitude of the army to how it was under Syria's
rule, describing a recent incident where opposition forces
attacked one of Geagea's convoys while the army stood by and
watched. (Note: This is not the first time Geagea has
criticized Fadl, who had not been his first choice as G-2.
End note.)

CABINET FORMATION
--------------


6. (C) Geagea told the Ambassador that he is confident that
March 14 would be able to form a new government soon, but
believes it will take longer than Future Party leader Saad
Hariri's estimated two weeks (Ref C). He foresees tht the
future cabinet will be split, with 10 miniterial positions
belonging to March 8, 17 belonging to March 14, and three
belonging to the president. He explained that it would be
"reasonable" to give the Interior Ministry and the Defense
Ministry to the president, while the Justice and Finance
Ministries would belong to March 14.


7. (C) Geagea complained to the Ambassador about the
statements from Washington officials in the press on the U.S.
administration's alleged desire to replace the current
Hizballah-allied foreign minister Fawzi Salloukh. (Note: A
June 9 As-Safir newspaper article had such a report. End
note.) Geagea said that we must avoid the perception that
the United States is interfering in the cabinet formation
process, and should not be seen as requesting the replacement
of Salloukh. There are certain key "sovereign" ministries,
which include the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA),and
taking the MFA away from March 8 will cause it to request
another "sovereign" ministry that has more practical
importance, according to Geagea. "Salloukh is harmless to
us," he added, "and we are better off if he remains in place
instead of us giving March 8 another ministry, such as
justice."
SISON