LEBANON: HIZBALLAH CONCILIATORY, EXCEPT TO U.S.,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 000639

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA
ALSO FOR IO A/S BRIMMER
P FOR DRUSSELL, RRANGASWAMY
PARIS FOR RWALLER
USUN FOR WOLFF/GERMAIN/SCHEDLBAUER
NSC FOR SHAPIRO, MCDERMOTT
DOD/OSD FOR FLOURNOY/KAHL/DALTON
DRL/NESA FOR WHITMAN, BARGHOUT
OVP FOR HMUSTAFA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/27/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR MOPS IS SY LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: HIZBALLAH CONCILIATORY, EXCEPT TO U.S.,
AND AOUN SILENT

Classified By: Classified by Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.
4 (b) and (d)

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Lebanese interlocutors and international observers
expressed general praise for the conduct of the elections and
hope for more electoral reform. Hizballah's SYG Hassan
Nasrallah, in a post election speech on June 8, congratulated
"the winners," but cautioned that while they hold the
majority, they now have the "responsibility" of serving and
representing the people. Speaker Nabih Berri called for
commitment to the Ta'if Accords and forming a new electoral
law based on proportional representation. March 14 leader
Saad Hariri predicted in his victory speech a "long road
ahead," with "regional and domestic dangers still real."
While Michel Aoun and his allies captured an estimated 20
seats, more than in the 2005 election, several of his March
14 opponents claimed that Aoun won about 50 percent of
Lebanon's Christian vote, a sharp drop from 2005. Aoun's
camp has been conspicuously absent in commenting on the
election results.


2. (C) International observers from the National Democratic
Institute (NDI),the Carter Center, the EU and Arab League
commended the Lebanese and electoral authorities on the
successful one-day execution of the election and the voter
registration process. Most noted the need for continued
electoral reform, to include pre-printed ballots, lowering
the voting age to 18, establishing a method for better
campaign finance controls, and the inclusion of more women
candidates. The Carter Center noted shortfalls in standards
regarding civil and political rights, including secrecy of
the ballot and equal suffrage. President Jimmy Carter, said
the elections fell short in some ways of "acceptable
international standards," and he mentioned he was personally
against the use of political party money used to bring
expatriates back to Lebanon to vote. Market reaction to the
elections also was positive. End summary

NO TIME TO GLOAT
--------------


3. (C) Lebanese interlocutors, the media and international
observer organizations expressed general satisfaction with
the election from an operational standpoint, with much praise
going to Interior Minister Ziad Baroud for his organization
and execution of the elections. Immediate reactions were one
of surprise at the strong showing of March 14 candidates, yet
there was no (public) gloating by the winning March 14
coalition, which retained its majority in parliament. Saad
Hariri, in an early morning June 8 victory rally, said the
elections had "no winner or loser," because democracy and
Lebanon had won. Hariri said the "road was still hard and
long, and regional and domestic dangers are real." He asked
supporters from his Future party and March 14 to show
"self-restraint." PM Fouad Siniora, a first time candidate
and winner in Sidon, in a June 7 interview with LBC
television, said "victory is for the Lebanese... and for
building the state." To his opponent, Siniora said "I extend
my hand to all parties in Sidon and our brother Osama Saad."
Speaker Nabih Berri, who won reelection to his seat, called
for commitment to the Ta'if Accords and forming a new
electoral law based on proportional representation.

NASRALLAH: CONCILIATORY BUT
QUICK TO LAY DOWN CHALLENGES
--------------


4. (C) Hizballah SYG Hassan Nasrallah also was conciliatory
in a June 8 televised speech. He congratulated the Lebanese
people and also praised the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) and
Internal Security Forces (ISF) for granting the people "the
opportunity to vote" in one day. Nasrallah acknowledged the
continued parliamentary majority of the "winners," but
stressed the fact they now hold the "responsibility" of
serving and representing the people. He made one jibe at the

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winning coalition in his speech, stating it remained to be
proved whether the elected majority actually possess the
"popular majority."


5. (C) Several interlocutors commented on Nasrallah's calm
demeanor, in contrast to the more fiery speeches he made in
the days before the vote, and his clear acceptance of the
results. Former PM Najib Makati stated to senior political
LES that Nasrallah was in a bad position due to Aoun's weaker
showing with Christians at the polls. He noted that
Nasrallah "knows" Aoun's losses occurred within the Christian
ranks and so was compelled to be more conciliatory. March 14
Druse Minister Wael Abu Faour told Embassy staff he believed
Nasrallah was feeling the "heat" due to Michel Aoun losing
Christian votes Aoun had expected to win, and that Aoun's
disappointing showing will force Nasrallah to adopt a more
moderate position for now.


6. (SBU) In contrast to Nasrallah's conciliatory tone,
Hizballah issued a statement on June 9 saying it "strongly
condemns the United States' continued rude and flagrant
interference in Lebanese internal affairs, especially the
statements that were made recently by its officials on the
results of the parliamentary elections and their efforts to
impose their classifications and to dictate their conclusions
on the Lebanese."


7. (C) March 14 SYG Fares Souaid, who did not win a seat in
the Aoun stronghold district of Jbeil, told Embassy staff
that Nasrallah must work to contain the reality of the March
8 loss, especially among Christian voters. Souaid was
pleased with the strong Christian support for March 14,
claiming coalition candidates received 53% of the Christian
vote.

AOUN: QUIET
--------------


8. (C) Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun has been
noticeably absent from the media after the elections. He
made one appearance on television June 7 after the polls
closed noting his party was compiling a list of voting
infractions and campaign law violations. Marada Party leader
Suleman Franjiyeh, a former minister and Aoun ally, told the
press June 8 that he believed Aoun had won a victory in that
Aoun maintained a majority in the Christian districts of
Kesrwan, Metn, and Zgharta despite a "war waged against him."
Telecommunications Minister Gebran Bassil, Aoun's
son-in-law, who lost his campaign for parliament, stated in
the press that voters had been "duped" by warnings from
Christian supporters of March 14 that a Hizballah-led
government would impose an Islamist regime. (Note: Aoun's
alliance won an estimated 20 seats, better than in the 2005
elections, when it won 15. However, where he prevailed, the
margins of victory were much smaller than in 2005. End note).

OBSERVERS PLEASED
BUT WORK TO BE DONE
--------------


9. (C) Four international observer groups presented their
preliminary reports on the afternoon of June 8. Regional
director Leslie Campbell and former Senator John Sununu
presented NDI's comments on the elections, stating NDI's
pleasure that the elections took place without serious
incidents of violence or polling place disturbances. Along
with NDI, former President Jimmy Carter of the Carter Center
and EU election observer mission chief Jose Salafranca noted
the progress Lebanon had made in electoral reform, as noted
by its ability to pull off the one-day election, and the
generally acceptable registration process. Former Yemeni PM
Al Eryani of the Carter Center said the elections were a
"model" for the other Arab nations.

10 (C) All observer groups noted shortcomings. Carter noted
foremost the lack of adequate "ballot secrecy." All observer
groups advised a pre-printed ballot was necessary for better
accountability and secrecy. The Carter Center stated

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Lebanon's electoral system falls "short of international
standards regarding civil and political rights." NDI
mentioned the ability of party supporters to enter into some
polling stations and also hand out literature outside the
stations. President Carter spoke of the current electoral
law against foreign funding. He said it was difficult to
prove the allegations of illegal funding and vote buying but
the problem needed to be addressed. Carter mentioned he was
personally against the use of political party money to bring
expatriates back to Lebanon to vote. Mohammad El-Khamlishi,
head of the Arab League Observing Mission commented
positively on Lebanese "freedom" to vote, good election
process management, and the high turnout (54%). Lack of
facilities for the handicapped and overcrowding were
El-Khamlishi's main negative observations.

IS THE MARKET A
LEADING INDICATOR?
--------------


11. (U) On June 9, the Beirut Stock Exchange (BSE) saw
increased trading activity of the shares of leading real
estate and investment company Solidere and bank shares June 9
compared to June 8 and the weeks prior to the election.
President of the BSE, Dr. Fadi Khalaf told econ staff that
having the elections take place peacefully reflected
positively on the BSE trading floor. Additionally, there
were positive post-election trends in demand for Lebanese
currency and debt. Dr. Youssef Khalil Chief of the Central
Bank operations noted to econ staff that the positive
reactions of Saad Hariri and Druse leader Walid Jumblatt to
Nasrallah's June 8 speech played a role in bringing short
term confidence to the market. Salim Zeeni, Head of the
Beirut American Chamber of Commerce told econ LES that he was
optimistic about Lebanon after the election. He predicted
cabinet selection would be "smooth."
SISON