LEBANON: OPINION-MAKER REACTION: "PRESIDENT

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/04/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV LE IS
SUBJECT: LEBANON: OPINION-MAKER REACTION: "PRESIDENT
OBAMA'S SPEECH STARTS A NEW DISCOURSE, BUT ACTION ALSO
NEEDED"

REF: A. BEIRUT 617

B. STATE 55334

Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) The Ambassador gathered a group of eight influential
opinion-makers June 4 for a roundtable discussion following
President Obama's speech from Cairo University. The group
agreed that the speech was "culturally sensitive" and a
positive first step to engagement with the Arab world.
However, several were disappointed that there was not more
detail in the speech about an action plan to solve the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Immediate action was needed to
inspire hope among the Palestinians and other Arab states,
they said. The reference linking Lebanon's Maronite
community to Egypt's Coptic Christians was not well-received
by our interlocutors, but the U.S. promise to recognize
governments elected by "the will of the people," gained a
positive reaction three days before Lebanon's June 7
parliamentary elections. Discussion participants were
encouraged by the recognition of the importance of meeting
economic needs, education, and women's empowerment, and
called for more tools of "soft-power diplomacy," such as
scholarships and cultural exchanges. The speech was on the
whole "impressive" participants said, but a clearer
articulation of policy would have been more powerful, they
argued. End summary.


2. (C) The Ambassador hosted a multi-confessional group of
eight influential opinion-makers for a roundtable discussion
three hours after President Obama delivered his speech from
Cairo University on June 4. Discussion participants included
Future Party parliamentarian Moustafa Allouch (Sunni from
Tripoli),political analyst Toufiq Hindi (Syriac-Catholic),
former Ambassador to the U.S. Simon Karam (Maronite),
political analyst and scholar at the American University of
Beirut's Issam Fares Center Rami Khoury (Palestinian-American
Christian),lawyer Mohammad Matar (Shia),former MEPI grantee
and chairperson of the Women's Business Network Hanan Saab
(Druze),Director of the Lebanese Center for Policy Studies
Oussama Safa (Shia),and Director of political action NGO
Hayya Bina (and MEPI-grantee) Lokman Slim (Shia). The DCM
and Poloffs also attended.

SPEECH WAS "CULTURALLY SENSITIVE,"
BUT INCLUDED "DISTRACTIONS"
--------------


3. (C) Our roundtable participants -- a small, but
confessionally and professionally diverse group --
universally praised President Obama's speech as a "good,
symbolic step" to engage with the Middle East. The symbolism
of speaking from Cairo University, in partnership with the
oldest Islamic university in the world, Al-Azhar, sent a
strong message to Arabs that the U.S. administration was
serious about engagement, they said. AUB academic Rami
Khoury noted the "unprecedented" admission by an American
president of the U.S. role in the overthrow of a
democratically-elected Iranian government, calling it a sign
of maturity and "historical contrition." Think-tank head
Oussama Safa agreed the title of the speech, "A New
Beginning," captured the essence of the speech and praised it
as the opening step to a new discourse with the region.


4. (C) Ambassador noted the President's outreach to Muslims
around the world in his Inaugural Address, Al Arabiya
interview, Nowruz message and speech in Turkey. Although the
guests characterized the President's Cairo speech as
"culturally sensitive," Muslims and non-Muslims alike at the
discussion said they found the number of Quranic references
"distracting." Mohammad Matar, describing himself as a Shia
"culturally," said that as a secularist the Islamic
references did not resonate with him. Lokman Slim noted that
the Quranic verses quoted in the speech were "very good," but

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he assessed the impact as "low" because there are verses for
everything: "even someone like Zarqawi (referencing the
Al-Qaida operative) cites Quranic verses before a beheading,"
he said. The speech was billed in the media as an "address
to the Muslim world," but Christian Khoury argued that such a
characterization played into the hands of extremist and
terrorist groups. The "psychedelic schizophrenia" of
attempts by U.S. policymakers to differentiate between Islam
and extremism missed the more important point, Khoury said,
of addressing the rights of Muslims rather than Islam in
America. Druze businesswoman Hanan Saab disagreed slightly,
and said the absence of the word "terrorism" from the speech
showed a more "diplomatic" approach than in recent years.

IMMEDIATE ACTION NEEDED
ON ISRAEL-PALESTINE ISSUE
--------------


6. (C) Interlocutors present at the discussion and others we
contacted by telephone (Ref A) had high expectations that
President Obama would unveil a detailed plan to resolve the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Moustafa Allouch and Khoury --
a Sunni and a Christian, respectively -- shared the view
that most Arabs, irrespective of religion, shared the same
grievances with the United States after years of feeling
"slighted." The Ambassador noted that the President had
reaffirmed that the United States would be a full partner
with all those who seek peace, and had called on all parties
to fulfill the obligations agreed to under the Road Map. In
response, the guests emphasized that the Arab-U.S.
relationship fifty years ago had been more "romantic," but
declared the persistence of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict
had changed that. Safa cited obstacles to reaching a
two-state solution, such as Iranian influence expanding in
the region and an unwilling Israeli government, but argued
that this remained the most important issue to address.
Allouch agreed and said it was Iran which was manipulating
the Arab-Israeli conflict to its own advantage. He
emphasized that for President Obama to be successful in his
efforts to resolve the conflict, specific actions were needed
"tomorrow, and the day after tomorrow," he said. Toufiq
Hindi called the speech "a good start," but urged swift
action.


7. (C) Lokman Slim praised President Obama for calling on
Arab states to also take responsibility to achieve a
solution. To illustrate the importance of the point, he said
two states would be unsustainable if one, Israel, was
supported by its government, and the other, Palestine, did
not have a "steady intravenous injection of Arab support."
He surmised that without Arab support, an eventual Palestine
would only become an extension of "Hamas-controlled Gaza."

IRAN
--------------


8. (C) Shia NGO-activist Lokman Slim added that President
Obama's intended message to Iran was "unclear." He believed
that there was a message to the Iranian people, but was
unable to capture the message to the Iranian government.
Druze businesswoman Hanan Saab said that the speech showed a
U.S. willingness to dialogue with Iran. However, the message
to have a world free of nuclear weapons was unrealistic, she
said. For his part, Syriac Christian Toufiq Hindi was
pessimistic that Iran would ever engage in the Middle East
peace process. The Iranian regime was not "Persian," rather
Persian Iran was under an Islamic power, he said, and Iranian
Islamic influence extended to Afghanistan and Pakistan.

ON RELIGIOUS FREEDOM:
MARONITES AND COPTS SHOULD NOT BE LINKED
--------------


9. (C) President Obama's only specific reference to Lebanon
in the speech came when he discussed religious freedom and
said, "The richness of religious diversity must be upheld --
whether it is for Maronites in Lebanon or the Copts in
Egypt." Most of our interlocutors, Maronite and otherwise,

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objected to the linkage of the Maronites with the Coptic
Christians in Egypt, describing the latter as a historically
persecuted group (see also Ref A). Saab said the reference
was "distasteful" because the Maronites are an integral part
of Lebanon's social fabric. She believed it was
inappropriate to single them out. Maronite Simon Karam, on
the other hand, did not support President Obama's statement,
but was willing to "excuse" it, saying, "Nevermind, we
Maronites, we will go along with it if President Obama
succeeds in resolving the Israeli-Palestinian issue."

MESSAGE ON DEMOCRACY
WILL RESONATE IN LEBANON
--------------


10. (C) With the approach of the June 7 Lebanese
parliamentary elections, discussion participants reasoned
that President Obama's message about democracy and
recognizing governments elected by "the will of the people"
would resonate loudly in Lebanon. Participants did not
engage in a deep discussion of Lebanese politics or electoral
outcomes, but expected the U.S. would continue its support
for Lebanon despite the possibility that the Hizballah-led
March 8 alliance would gain several seats in parliament, if
not a clear majority. Participants were in general wary of
Hizballah and its Christian ally, the Free Patriotic Movement
led by Michel Aoun, assuming power in a new government if
they did not commit to upholding Lebanon's constitution and
maintaining Lebanon's delicate confessional balance.

MORE "SOFT POWER DIPLOMACY"
--------------


11. (C) Hanan Saab and Moustafa Allouch were the most vocal
in their support of President Obama's economic, education,
and women's empowerment initiatives. They called for more
"soft-power diplomacy" to include scholarships and exchange
programs. Allouch recounted his personal story that he was
"an enemy of America" until he visited the United States for
the first time in 1990 and had a positive, personal
experience there. Saab said she was "pleasantly surprised"
by President Obama's call on everyone to prepare to pass the
torch to the younger generation. Oussama Safa highlighted the
irony that where Arab governments have failed to meet the
economic needs of their populations, Islamist groups, such as
Hamas and Hizballah, have successfully filled the void.

"IMPRESSIVE IN A PASSIVE WAY"
--------------


12. (C) Drawing the session to a close, Ambassador noted the
President's statement of shared interest in confronting
extremism, focus on building on the Arab Peace Initiative,
reaffirmation of U.S. commitment to seeking a world in which
no nation holds nuclear weapons, and support for democracy
and human rights. The discussion participants concluded
that, overall, President Obama's speech was a "good first
step." Summing up, Rami Khoury characterized the speech as
"impressive in a passive way," but suggested that a clearer
articulation of policy would have been more powerful.

SISON