LEBANON: ELECTION DISPUTE BODY FINALLY NAMED

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000587

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA
ALSO FOR IO A/S BRIMMER
P FOR DRUSSELL, RRANGASWAMY
USUN FOR WOLFF/GERMAIN/SCHEDLBAUER
NSC FOR SHAPIRO, MCDERMOTT
DOD/OSD FOR FLOURNOY/KAHL/DALTON
DRL/NESA FOR WHITMAN
OVP FOR HMUSTAFA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/27/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR UNSC MARR MOPS LE SY
SUBJECT: LEBANON: ELECTION DISPUTE BODY FINALLY NAMED

REF: A. BEIRUT 00247

B. BEIRUT 00570

Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) The Lebanese cabinet on May 27 appointed the final
five members to the Constitutional Council, completing the
formation of the body that will consider disputes over the
June 7 parliamentary election results. This was a critical
step to ensure the upcoming elections are seen as free and
fair. Although technically an independent judicial body, the
final breakdown of Council members includes six members who
are close to the majority March 14 coalition, three close to
the Hizballah-led opposition, and one independent ally of the
President. As seven votes are required to pass decisions on
the Council, neither March 14 nor the opposition can issue a
decision without agreement from at least one other Council
member.


2. (C) In a possible preview of the cabinet formation process
-- which we expect to be lengthy and contentious -- President
Michel Sleiman played a critical role in finding a compromise
solution to the formation of Constitutional Council. While
unlikely to be entirely insulated from confessional politics,
the Council is crucial to efforts to strengthen the
transparency and fairness of the electoral process. End
summary.

SLEIMAN MEDIATION "CRITICAL"
--------------


3. (C) After a series of delays and disagreements between
majority March 14 ministers and opposition ministers (Ref A),
the cabinet May 27 unanimously appointed the remaining five
members of the Constitutional Council. (Note: Parliament
selected in December 2008 the first five members to the
Council. A constitutionally-mandated body, the Council
requires a quorum of eight members to act, with seven needed
to pass a decision. End note.)


4. (C) In what was an unexpected development, President
Sleiman succeeded in his effort to push March 4 and the
opposition to resolve their dispute andname the five
remaining members of the Council. According to Ali Hamdan,
aide to Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri, President Sleiman
carried out intense consultations with Berri, Prime Minister
Fouad Siniora, and Christian opposition leader Michel Aoun to
reach a compromise. Hamdan cited the President's mediation
as critical to the selection, in particular, of the Maronite
and Orthodox candidates and the position of presidency of the
Council.


5. (C) Embassy contacts generally speak highly of the five
new members: Issam Sleiman (Maronite),Toufic Soubra (Sunni),
Assaad Diab (Shia),Suheil Abed al-Samad (Druze),and Salah
Moukhayber (Orthodox). Issam Sleiman was President
Sleiman's "candidate" and is close to respected former Prime
Minister Salim Hoss. Soubra is allied with Sunni majority
leader Saad Hariri and PM Siniora. Druze leaders Talal
Arslan and Walid Jumblatt agreed on the selection of Samad,
who contacts say is closer to March 14. Diab, close to
Speaker Berri and Syria, is reportedly a regular at card
games with the former Syrian intelligence chief in Lebanon.

COUNCIL POLITICS
--------------


6. (C) Issam Sleiman (Maronite),following an unofficial
agreement between Aoun and Sleiman, is expected to become
chairman of the Constitutional Council. All contacts spoke
highly of him. He is a professor of constitutional law and
political science at the Lebanese University.


7. (C) With the new appointments, six Council members are
more closely aligned with March 14, three with the
Hizballah-Aoun opposition, and one -- Issam Sleiman -- with

BEIRUT 00000587 002 OF 002


the President. As Council decisions require seven votes for
passage, neither side can make a decision without at least
one other vote. Sleiman's support would give March 14-allied
members enough votes to pass a decision; his vote also would
give the opposition enough to block. This setup also opens
the possibility of a hamstrung Council unable to gain the
necessary seven votes to pass decisions. Judge Sleiman is
expected to use his position carefully and follow the role of
his patron, the President, working for compromise on the
Council.

EFFECT OF POLITICAL
PRESSURE UNKNOWN
--------------


8. (C) Political pressure and financial incentives -- a
common way of doing business and politics in Lebanon --
likely will be used in an attempt to sway Constitutional
Council members. Opposition Free Patriotic Movement MP
Ibrahim Kenaan noted that members will ultimately have to
satisfy the needs of their "patrons." Although Council
members are political appointees, most are also
well-respected legal experts who will be judged based on
their impartiality; decisions made by the Council will be
scrutinized throughout the country and abroad. Therefore,
the political and confessional affiliations of the members
may not be a perfect indication of how they will vote on
disputes. The completion of the Council before elections is
a positive development. Although likely linked to the fact
that both March 14 and the opposition believe they will win
elections, the establishment of the full Council indicates
that both sides do in fact seek to hold timely elections,
with a proper dispute resolution mechanism.

COMMENT
--------------


9. (C) Following his failed attempt last week to forge
agreement on administrative appointments in cabinet (Ref B),
President Sleiman nonetheless again exercised leadership in
pushing the completion of this vital institution. In a May
27 speech, Sleiman said the role of the President was not to
"manage differences" but to "impose balanced solutions."
This will be especially critical during the upcoming cabinet
formation process, which we expect to be lengthy and
controversial.

SISON