LEBANON: AOUN HAS LOST METN VOTES, MICHEL MURR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000571

SIPDIS

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/20/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR UNSC MARR MOPS LE SY
SUBJECT: LEBANON: AOUN HAS LOST METN VOTES, MICHEL MURR
CLAIMS

REF: BEIRUT 00563

Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Metn political heavyweight Michel Murr, meeting with
the Ambassador on May 20, expressed confidence that March 14
would win the upcoming parliamentary elections, although he
expected the result to be close. Murr disclosed that
President Sleiman was feeling frustrated with Lebanon's
electoral game but was hopeful about a solid March 14 and
independent showing on June 7. Sleiman planned to support
current Minister of Defense Elias Murr (Michel's son) as
Defense Minister in the next cabinet and Sunni leader Saad
Hariri as the new prime minister, Michel Murr claimed. Murr
claimed that Hizballah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah's
recent vitriolic statements had cost his ally Christian
leader Michel Aoun 1000 Christian votes in the key Metn
district. End summary.

CONFIDENT FOR JUNE 7
--------------


2. (C) An energetic and cheerful Michel Murr on May 20 told
the Ambassador, accompanied by PolEconOff and Senior
Political LES, that March 14 and the allied independent
deputies would win the majority in the June 7 parliamentary
elections, despite some problematic districts. The Christian
Metn district heavyweight said he had three definite seats in
his district secured and was still working for the full
seven. (In a press conference later in the day, Murr
"guaranteed victory" in all seven seats.) Murr reiterated
that with such a close national race, the outcome in Metn
would be the deciding factor nationwide.


3. (C) Murr echoed March 14 leaders' concerns about Beirut 1
and Zahle districts. He said that Sunni leader Saad Hariri
would soon attempt to convince current Minister and erstwhile
March 14 ally Nassib Lahoud to instruct his followers to vote
for Murr's list in Metn by hinting at a cabinet position for
Lahoud.

NASRALLAH'S SPEECH WILL
HURT AOUN IN METN
--------------


4. (C) Murr opined that Christian opposition leader Michel
Aoun had lost 1000 Christian votes in Metn because of
Hizballah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah's recent
speeches (Ref A). Aoun's ally, Nasrallah, had become
"arrogant," Murr said, describing Hizballah as no longer a
resistance but a militia that could bring the country to
civil war. Murr admitted, however, that Nasrallah --
expected to give speeches on May 22 and 25 as well -- had
time before the elections to step back from his vitriolic
rhetoric.


5. (C) In the meantime, Murr sought to instill fear of
Hizballah -- and by default, fear of Aoun -- into the
Christian voters of Metn. He told the Ambassador that in his
Metn outreach, he compared an opposition-led Lebanese
government to that of the Hamas-led government in the Gaza
Strip. The international community and the U.S. would refuse
to deal with Hizballah, and Christian areas that had followed
Aoun and his alliance with Hizballah would be the most
affected, Murr said he had told Metn voters.

SLEIMAN SEEKING WAY
FORWARD
--------------


6. (C) President Michel Sleiman was frustrated with election
maneuvering and disappointed by recent criticisms by Aoun and
opposition Christian figure Suleiman Franjieh that Sleiman
was interfering in elections. Sleiman was nervous his
candidates would lose, Murr said. The President had asked
Jbeil candidate (March 14 SecGen) Fares Souaid to withdraw,

BEIRUT 00000571 002 OF 002


as the President's former advisor Nazem Khoury probably would
lose if Souaid ran in the district as well. (Souaid and
Nazem Khoury both remain in the race.) Despite these
frustrations, Sleiman was looking for a way to unify March 14
and his allies around him and seek a way forward after
elections, Murr said.


7. (C) Murr assessed that, following a March 14 victory in
the June 7 elections, Druze leader Walid Jumblatt and Speaker
of Parliament Nabih Berri -- both of whom have made recent
moves toward a political middle ground -- would solidify
behind President Sleiman. In order to cool animosity between
Hariri and Speaker Berri, Murr intended to push a proposal
that would appease both men. Murr plans to encourage a deal
whereby Speaker Berri's deputies would agree to vote for
Hariri as the next prime minister, and, in exchange, Hariri's
deputies would vote for Berri to continue as Speaker. (Note:
At his press conference, Murr reiterated his support for
Berri as the next Speaker and questioned those attacking the
President. End note.)


8. (C) Murr expressed fear about violence in the case of a
March 14 victory, if the opposition refused to accept the
results or pushed for a blocking one-third minority in
cabinet. Murr noted that June 20 would be a key date as the
mandate or the current parliament would expire, and new MPs
would convene to elect a cabinet. (Note: The Siniora
cabinet goes into caretaker status on June 20, the end of the
current parliament's mandate, until a new cabinet is formed.
We expect this to be a lengthy process. End note.) Murr
says he would not participate in a March 8-led government and
would instruct his "staunchly American" son, Defense Minister
Elias Murr, to abstain as well.

COMMENT
--------------


9. (C) Saying that the Metn district is crucial to the
national outcome embellishes Michel Murr's importance a
political kingmaker. It is clear, however, that Metn is one
of three or four key battleground districts, all
Christian-dominated, that will determine the majority. Murr
has his Metn political machine in full gear to boost the
chances of March 14 candidates on Murr's list against those
of his former ally, Michel Aoun.


10. (C) Whereas independent Murr remains allied to March 14,
former Hariri confidant Ghattas Khoury is still alienated
from the March 14 coalition. In a separate May 20 meeting
with Senior Political LES, Khoury criticized Hariri's failure
to support Khoury's candidacy in the Chouf. Khoury was
continuing his campaign, albeit quietly, he said, in order to
avoid embarrassing Hariri; the Sunni population of Chouf had
embraced his candidacy, Khoury claimed. For his part, Khoury
assessed March 14 would lose the elections, following defeats
in Metn and Zahle. Khoury disapproved of Hariri's support of
Prime Minister Fouad Siniora in Sidon. If Siniora lost, it
would be a "major defeat," and if Siniora won, he would rival
Hariri for the next premiership, Khoury said. End comment.
SISON