Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09BEIRUT548
2009-05-15 07:14:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Beirut
Cable title:
LEBANON: PSP LEADER WALID JUMBLATT CONFIRMS HIS
how-toVZCZCXRO5078 PP RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHDH RUEHKUK RUEHROV DE RUEHLB #0548/01 1350714 ZNY CCCCC ZZH P 150714Z MAY 09 FM AMEMBASSY BEIRUT TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4905 INFO RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 3784 RHMFISS/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 000548
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA
ALSO FOR IO A/S BRIMMER
P FOR DRUSSELL, RRANGASWAMY
USUN FOR WOLFF/GERMAIN/SCHEDLBAUER
NSC FOR SHAPIRO, MCDERMOTT
DOD/OSD FOR FLOURNOY/KAHL/DALTON
DRL/NESA FOR WHITMAN, BARGHOUT
OVP FOR HMUSTAFA
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/14/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR IS SY LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: PSP LEADER WALID JUMBLATT CONFIRMS HIS
COMMITMENT TO MARCH 14
Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d)
SUMMARY
-------
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 000548
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA
ALSO FOR IO A/S BRIMMER
P FOR DRUSSELL, RRANGASWAMY
USUN FOR WOLFF/GERMAIN/SCHEDLBAUER
NSC FOR SHAPIRO, MCDERMOTT
DOD/OSD FOR FLOURNOY/KAHL/DALTON
DRL/NESA FOR WHITMAN, BARGHOUT
OVP FOR HMUSTAFA
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/14/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR IS SY LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: PSP LEADER WALID JUMBLATT CONFIRMS HIS
COMMITMENT TO MARCH 14
Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d)
SUMMARY
--------------
1. (C) At a dinner hosted in honor of visiting NEA DAS Hale,
March 14 Druze leader Walid Jumblatt said there were still
some problems with March 14 candidate lists, notably in
Beirut I and Keserwan Jumblatt reaffirmed his commitment to
March 14 and disclosed that a meeting for the coalition would
be held soon. MP Marwan Hamadeh said March 14 lacks a good
campaign, and added the release of the four generals had had
a "boomerang" effect. Hale described a possible March 8
election victory as a "strategic failure," and reaffirmed
that a two-state solution to solve the Israeli-Palestinian
problem is viable. Hale also lauded Saudi officials for
their engagement in Lebanon. End summary.
2. (C) On May 8, Druze leader Walid Jumblatt hosted a dinner
in honor of NEA DAS David Hale. Present at the dinner were
Public Works and Transport Minister Ghazi Aridi, MP Marwan
Hamadeh, vice-president of the Progressive Socialist Party
Durayd Yaghi, and Mrs. Nora Jumblatt. The Ambassador,
Pol/Econ Chief and LES Political Specialist also attended.
PROBLEMS REMAIN
WITH MARCH 14 LISTS
--------------
3. (C) "The final touches for March 14's lists are being
made," Jumblatt said, but noted there were ongoing problems
with Lebanese Forces (LF) leader Samir Geagea over the
Armenian seat in Beirut I district, as well as on the
Keserwan list. Jumblatt said Geagea is opposed to including
former minister Fares Boueiz on the March 14 list in
Keserwan. In addition, Geagea's insistence on including
Richard Kouyoumjian, the LF Armenian candidate in Beirut I to
the March 14 list, could pose a threat to the success of this
list. "For the sake of history, we should praise Boueiz for
being among the group of 29 parliamentarians who refused the
Syrian dictate to extend former President Emile Lahoud's term
in 2004," Jumblatt said. He further described Boueiz as a
"heavy-weight," and added that Boueiz has ties to Qatar, as
well as French authorities through Claude Gueant.
JUMBLATT STILL
COMMITTED TO MARCH 14
--------------
4. (C) Jumblatt reaffirmed his commitment to March 14 and
said that a meeting for the March 14 leaders would occur soon
at Qoreitem to discuss the next steps. According to
Jumblatt, the leaders would also discuss the possibility of
holding a larger meeting for all of the coalition member's at
the residence of Minister of State Nassib Lahoud. The
purpose of the gathering would be to express March 14's
solidarity with Lahoud, who withdrew from the race when he
was excluded from independent MP Michel Murr's list.
MARCH 14 LACKS STRONG
ELECTORAL CAMPAIGN
--------------
5. (C) Hamadeh called March 14's campaign advertisements
"weak," while "Aoun's campaign is very aggressive in
insulting his adversaries." Furthermore, he noted that March
14's campaign budget was depleted. Hamadeh underscored the
importance of television advertising, and said March 8
figures had dominated television screens for the past two
weeks. He complained Hizballah figures and Telcom Minister
Gebran Bassil were seen on television much more than March 14
figures. Jumblatt said he would be a guest on the popular
"Kalam al-Nass" ("talk of the people") talk show with Marcel
Ghanem on May 28. He added that Ghanem is asking for USD
25,000 from every candidate who wants to appear on his talk
show.
6. (C) Hamadeh also pointed out the relaunch of independent
BEIRUT 00000548 002 OF 003
media outlet MTV was a good start for March 14. MTV's
technical platform appealed to youth, while the popular
network LBC appears to attract an aging audience.
RELEASE OF FOUR GENERALS
HAD A BOOMERANG EFFECT
--------------
7. (C) "The release of the four generals from prison had a
damaging effect on March 14," indicated MP Marwan Hamadeh.
He added, "It also had a boomerang effect." Hamadeh said
people rallied around March 14 when they saw the four
generals surrounded by notorious figures that reminded them
of the Syrian occupation era. Jumblatt sarcastically
predicted if March 8 wins, the following figures would be
appointed as ministers: Michel Samaha for Foreign Affairs,
Adnan Addoum for Justice, Jamil Sayyed, one of the four
released generals, for Interior, Michel Aoun for Defense, and
Nasser Qandil for Information. Jumblatt did not believe
former PM Najib Mikati would be appointed Prime Minister
because tough remarks made by pro-Syrian figure Michel Samaha
suggest the Syrians would not support Mikati.
A MARCH 8,S VICTORY
EQUALS A STRATEGIC FAILURE
--------------
8. (C) DAS Hale described a possible March 8 opposition
victory as a "catastrophic and strategic failure." Jumblatt
cautioned that if March 8 wins, it would give Iran the upper
hand in the region. Jumblatt also warned that if aid to
Lebanon is suspended, including military assistance and Paris
III money, Iran would fill the vacuum. Hamadeh said there
was unspent money for projects never dispersed because the
necessary approvals were not passed in parliament. Hamadeh
believed a March 8 majority, to its advantage, would pass the
necessary legislation and ensure the disbursement of this
money.
STICK TO THE DOHA AGREEMENT
--------------
9. (C) Jumblatt said the only option available, in case of a
March 8 victory, would be to side with President Michel
Sleiman. He said March 14 should give the President the
blocking minority in the next cabinet. Jumblatt defended his
recent remarks that the 2008 Doha Agreement should continue
after the elections, arguing the Doha Agreement was effective
in reducing sectarian tensions. Jumblatt added he did not
intend to give the opposition the blocking third in the next
cabinet.
MARCH 14 MUST DO ITS HOMEWORK
--------------
10. (C) When asked by DAS Hale about how the U.S. could best
support March 14, Jumblatt stressed the need for March 14 to
"do its homework." On the other hand, Hamadeh said the
international community should continue speaking about the
Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL). Hamadeh cautioned that
while pushing for the STL, the support should come in a
subtle manner that would not politicize the Tribunal.
ISRAELI WITHDRAW FROM GHAJAR?
--------------
11. (C) Hamadeh noted the residents of Ghajar do not want to
be under the Lebanese jurisdiction. For his part, Jumblatt
criticized Israel's clumsiness in handling the issue of
Ghajar saying that Israel is not helping March 14 when it
claims it wants to withdraw from Ghajar to help the Siniora
government.
TWO STATE SOLUTION VIABLE
--------------
12. (C) DAS Hale said a two state solution to solve the
Palestinian-Israeli struggle was possible. Hale informed
Jumblatt that Special Envoy Mitchell wants to integrate the
BEIRUT 00000548 003 OF 003
Arab Peace Initiative (API) into his efforts and said the
main issue for the Israeli public opinion is the perception
that the API is non-negotiable and should be adopted in its
entirety.
13. (C) Hamadeh cautioned that Lebanon cannot engage in
direct negotiations with Israel, and added the issue of
Palestinian resettlement is crucial for Lebanon. "Our only
position is to stick to the truce agreement signed between
Lebanon and Syria," Hamadeh noted. Hale responded that while
the U.S. recognizes the problems facing Lebanon with regards
to Palestinian resettlement, and that no solution would come
at the expense of Lebanon, it is unrealistic to assume that
all Palestinian refugees would return to their homeland.
SAUDI OFFICIALS REMAIN
COMMITTED TO LEBANON
--------------
14. (C) DAS Hale lauded Saudi leadership for its involvement
in Lebanon and described his recent visit to Saudi Arabia as
"very good." He said prior to his visit to the country, he
was worried that Saudi officials would not pay attention to
details in Lebanon. "My meetings with Saudi officials proved
the opposite," he said. Hale said he met with Abed al-Aziz
Bin Abdallah and Saudi Minister of Information Abed al-Aziz
Khoja, and reported they were following Lebanon's details
closely.
SISON
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA
ALSO FOR IO A/S BRIMMER
P FOR DRUSSELL, RRANGASWAMY
USUN FOR WOLFF/GERMAIN/SCHEDLBAUER
NSC FOR SHAPIRO, MCDERMOTT
DOD/OSD FOR FLOURNOY/KAHL/DALTON
DRL/NESA FOR WHITMAN, BARGHOUT
OVP FOR HMUSTAFA
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/14/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR IS SY LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: PSP LEADER WALID JUMBLATT CONFIRMS HIS
COMMITMENT TO MARCH 14
Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d)
SUMMARY
--------------
1. (C) At a dinner hosted in honor of visiting NEA DAS Hale,
March 14 Druze leader Walid Jumblatt said there were still
some problems with March 14 candidate lists, notably in
Beirut I and Keserwan Jumblatt reaffirmed his commitment to
March 14 and disclosed that a meeting for the coalition would
be held soon. MP Marwan Hamadeh said March 14 lacks a good
campaign, and added the release of the four generals had had
a "boomerang" effect. Hale described a possible March 8
election victory as a "strategic failure," and reaffirmed
that a two-state solution to solve the Israeli-Palestinian
problem is viable. Hale also lauded Saudi officials for
their engagement in Lebanon. End summary.
2. (C) On May 8, Druze leader Walid Jumblatt hosted a dinner
in honor of NEA DAS David Hale. Present at the dinner were
Public Works and Transport Minister Ghazi Aridi, MP Marwan
Hamadeh, vice-president of the Progressive Socialist Party
Durayd Yaghi, and Mrs. Nora Jumblatt. The Ambassador,
Pol/Econ Chief and LES Political Specialist also attended.
PROBLEMS REMAIN
WITH MARCH 14 LISTS
--------------
3. (C) "The final touches for March 14's lists are being
made," Jumblatt said, but noted there were ongoing problems
with Lebanese Forces (LF) leader Samir Geagea over the
Armenian seat in Beirut I district, as well as on the
Keserwan list. Jumblatt said Geagea is opposed to including
former minister Fares Boueiz on the March 14 list in
Keserwan. In addition, Geagea's insistence on including
Richard Kouyoumjian, the LF Armenian candidate in Beirut I to
the March 14 list, could pose a threat to the success of this
list. "For the sake of history, we should praise Boueiz for
being among the group of 29 parliamentarians who refused the
Syrian dictate to extend former President Emile Lahoud's term
in 2004," Jumblatt said. He further described Boueiz as a
"heavy-weight," and added that Boueiz has ties to Qatar, as
well as French authorities through Claude Gueant.
JUMBLATT STILL
COMMITTED TO MARCH 14
--------------
4. (C) Jumblatt reaffirmed his commitment to March 14 and
said that a meeting for the March 14 leaders would occur soon
at Qoreitem to discuss the next steps. According to
Jumblatt, the leaders would also discuss the possibility of
holding a larger meeting for all of the coalition member's at
the residence of Minister of State Nassib Lahoud. The
purpose of the gathering would be to express March 14's
solidarity with Lahoud, who withdrew from the race when he
was excluded from independent MP Michel Murr's list.
MARCH 14 LACKS STRONG
ELECTORAL CAMPAIGN
--------------
5. (C) Hamadeh called March 14's campaign advertisements
"weak," while "Aoun's campaign is very aggressive in
insulting his adversaries." Furthermore, he noted that March
14's campaign budget was depleted. Hamadeh underscored the
importance of television advertising, and said March 8
figures had dominated television screens for the past two
weeks. He complained Hizballah figures and Telcom Minister
Gebran Bassil were seen on television much more than March 14
figures. Jumblatt said he would be a guest on the popular
"Kalam al-Nass" ("talk of the people") talk show with Marcel
Ghanem on May 28. He added that Ghanem is asking for USD
25,000 from every candidate who wants to appear on his talk
show.
6. (C) Hamadeh also pointed out the relaunch of independent
BEIRUT 00000548 002 OF 003
media outlet MTV was a good start for March 14. MTV's
technical platform appealed to youth, while the popular
network LBC appears to attract an aging audience.
RELEASE OF FOUR GENERALS
HAD A BOOMERANG EFFECT
--------------
7. (C) "The release of the four generals from prison had a
damaging effect on March 14," indicated MP Marwan Hamadeh.
He added, "It also had a boomerang effect." Hamadeh said
people rallied around March 14 when they saw the four
generals surrounded by notorious figures that reminded them
of the Syrian occupation era. Jumblatt sarcastically
predicted if March 8 wins, the following figures would be
appointed as ministers: Michel Samaha for Foreign Affairs,
Adnan Addoum for Justice, Jamil Sayyed, one of the four
released generals, for Interior, Michel Aoun for Defense, and
Nasser Qandil for Information. Jumblatt did not believe
former PM Najib Mikati would be appointed Prime Minister
because tough remarks made by pro-Syrian figure Michel Samaha
suggest the Syrians would not support Mikati.
A MARCH 8,S VICTORY
EQUALS A STRATEGIC FAILURE
--------------
8. (C) DAS Hale described a possible March 8 opposition
victory as a "catastrophic and strategic failure." Jumblatt
cautioned that if March 8 wins, it would give Iran the upper
hand in the region. Jumblatt also warned that if aid to
Lebanon is suspended, including military assistance and Paris
III money, Iran would fill the vacuum. Hamadeh said there
was unspent money for projects never dispersed because the
necessary approvals were not passed in parliament. Hamadeh
believed a March 8 majority, to its advantage, would pass the
necessary legislation and ensure the disbursement of this
money.
STICK TO THE DOHA AGREEMENT
--------------
9. (C) Jumblatt said the only option available, in case of a
March 8 victory, would be to side with President Michel
Sleiman. He said March 14 should give the President the
blocking minority in the next cabinet. Jumblatt defended his
recent remarks that the 2008 Doha Agreement should continue
after the elections, arguing the Doha Agreement was effective
in reducing sectarian tensions. Jumblatt added he did not
intend to give the opposition the blocking third in the next
cabinet.
MARCH 14 MUST DO ITS HOMEWORK
--------------
10. (C) When asked by DAS Hale about how the U.S. could best
support March 14, Jumblatt stressed the need for March 14 to
"do its homework." On the other hand, Hamadeh said the
international community should continue speaking about the
Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL). Hamadeh cautioned that
while pushing for the STL, the support should come in a
subtle manner that would not politicize the Tribunal.
ISRAELI WITHDRAW FROM GHAJAR?
--------------
11. (C) Hamadeh noted the residents of Ghajar do not want to
be under the Lebanese jurisdiction. For his part, Jumblatt
criticized Israel's clumsiness in handling the issue of
Ghajar saying that Israel is not helping March 14 when it
claims it wants to withdraw from Ghajar to help the Siniora
government.
TWO STATE SOLUTION VIABLE
--------------
12. (C) DAS Hale said a two state solution to solve the
Palestinian-Israeli struggle was possible. Hale informed
Jumblatt that Special Envoy Mitchell wants to integrate the
BEIRUT 00000548 003 OF 003
Arab Peace Initiative (API) into his efforts and said the
main issue for the Israeli public opinion is the perception
that the API is non-negotiable and should be adopted in its
entirety.
13. (C) Hamadeh cautioned that Lebanon cannot engage in
direct negotiations with Israel, and added the issue of
Palestinian resettlement is crucial for Lebanon. "Our only
position is to stick to the truce agreement signed between
Lebanon and Syria," Hamadeh noted. Hale responded that while
the U.S. recognizes the problems facing Lebanon with regards
to Palestinian resettlement, and that no solution would come
at the expense of Lebanon, it is unrealistic to assume that
all Palestinian refugees would return to their homeland.
SAUDI OFFICIALS REMAIN
COMMITTED TO LEBANON
--------------
14. (C) DAS Hale lauded Saudi leadership for its involvement
in Lebanon and described his recent visit to Saudi Arabia as
"very good." He said prior to his visit to the country, he
was worried that Saudi officials would not pay attention to
details in Lebanon. "My meetings with Saudi officials proved
the opposite," he said. Hale said he met with Abed al-Aziz
Bin Abdallah and Saudi Minister of Information Abed al-Aziz
Khoja, and reported they were following Lebanon's details
closely.
SISON