LEBANON: ARCHBISHOP AUDI EXPRESSES FEAR OF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000538

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA
ALSO FOR IO A/S BRIMMER
P FOR DRUSSELL, RRANGASWAMY
USUN FOR WOLFF/GERMAIN/SCHEDLBAUER
NSC FOR SHAPIRO, MCDERMOTT
DOD/OSD FOR FLOURNOY/KAHL/DALTON
DRL/NESA FOR WHITMAN, BARGHOUT
OVP FOR HMUSTAFA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/10/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV UNSC IS SY LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: ARCHBISHOP AUDI EXPRESSES FEAR OF
DECLINING CHRISTIAN POWER

Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

Summary
--------------


1. (C) Orthodox Christian Archbishop Audi, meeting with NEA
Deputy Assistant Secretary Hale on May 9, at turns decried
the political season in Lebanon; emphasized the need for
Lebanese to be beholden to the state and its institutions;
expressed his fear that the Shi'a population, with Hizballah
at its helm, was becoming a clone of Iran; and nostalgically
recounted days when it was not the case. The Archbishop
welcomed the strong statements of Secretary Clinton and U.S.
Ambassador to the U.N. Rice in support of Lebanon while
expressing his fears that a Hizballah/Shi'a government, with
its growing population and disregard for state institutions,
would systematically undermine the Christian population in
Lebanon until they are no more. End summary.

Loyalty to the State Above All
--------------


2. (C) NEA Deputy Assistant Secretary David Hale,
accompanied by the Ambassador and ConOff, met with Orthodox
Christian Archbishop Audi at the Archbishop's downtown office
on May 9. Audi repeatedly stressed that the Lebanese need to
prioritize the state and its institutions above their own,
smaller political ambitions. However, he lamented, it is
rarely, if ever, the case. Parliament, Audi chided, had
refused to work for one-and-a-half years while taking the
taxpayers, money, and now it continues to do a disservice in
failing to meet a quorum. Audi said he would address this
lack of concern for the state in his next sermon where he
planned to liken Lebanon to a cripple in a biblical story.
In the story, a paralytic is unable to move himself into the
healing water of the pool of Bethesda while the masses,
fixated on curing their own afflictions, ignore him.
Lebanese politicians, Audi said, act like these sinners when
they ignore the state in the midst of political positioning
and deal making.


3. (C) According to Audi, among those with the least regard
for the state is Hizballah. The Archbishop illustrated this
lack of respect by explaining how populations treat the
symbol of the state -- the flag. When Audi was in the U.S.
as a young Orthodox priest, he witnessed the respect with
which Americans treated their flag -- once he saw a flag
inadvertently dropped on the ground and it had to be burned.
By contrast, he said, Lebanese flags on government buildings
are often tattered and faded with little to distinguish them
from old laundry left out to dry. Hizballah, he explained,
had even less respect for this national symbol. Hizballah
scouts once refused to carry the Lebanese flag at a national
gathering of scouts and it wasn't until the Archbishop
himself accused a Hizballah official of not being Lebanese
that the flag was flown by the official.


4. (C) Ultimately, Audi confided, Lebanon is currently a
state within a state; yet, due to the power Hizballah wields,
no one dares challenge it. Audi said he has not forgotten
May 7, 2008, when Hizballah activists essentially shut down
the country. Anecdotally, Audi recounted how the Lebanese
President was compelled to mention the opposition in a speech
when Lebanon was chosen by UNESCO to be the World Book
Capital for 2009. Despite the fact it was a cultural event,
far removed from politics, Audi asserted, politicians are
obliged to include the opposition. While Audi said he
understood why politicians need to try to strike a balance,
he argued that placating Hizballah and the opposition has
gone too far.


5. (C) Hizballah is Iran, Audi claimed, adding that Aoun
believes himself to be the opposition leader while he is but
one leader among many. (The Archbishop also expressed
disdain for Aoun's December, 2008 visit to Syria.) Holding
allegiance to Iran and Lebanon at the same time, the

BEIRUT 00000538 002 OF 002


Archbishop insisted, was impossible -- it is not like holding
allegiance to France and the European Union. Iran is an
outside entity wielding its influence; Audi marveled that
accusations can be leveled effectively against politicians
for being "pro-U.S." while no one ever gets accused of being
"pro-Iranian." Iran, Audi said, is championing the Shi'a
cause via remote control and Hizballah is its clone in
Lebanon.

Christians Increasingly
"Not In The Formula"
--------------


6. (C) Audi aired his fears that the Christian demographic
was slowly disappearing while the Shi'a population was
exploding. Former President Emile Lahoud once told the
Archbishop the Christian population of Lebanon was around
24.5%; meanwhile, Audi added, Hizballah officials brag they
can increase their own population by 100,000 in one year.
Shi'a authorities, according to Audi, give religious orders
to women to have children while the Christian population
shrinks. Lebanon without Christians, Audi maintained, is not
Lebanon. According to the Archbishop, Christians, even now,
are coming to realize they are "not in the formula."
Instead, he said, it has become a competition between Shi'a
and Sunna and the two cannot stand one another.


7. (C) The Archbishop claimed he was afraid when he learned
of the release of the generals accused of involvement in the
Hariri assassination and he wondered if an election deal had
been struck. If the international effort fails to bring
justice to those who committed political assassinations, Audi
said, there will be a Sunni-Shi'a war in the region. The
Sunni population, he said, has grown more and more
mistrustful as Iran's ambitions of empire are emboldened
throughout the Middle East and North Africa.


8. (C) While Iran poses a danger; Audi assured that if
Israel was to attack them, Lebanon would undoubtedly suffer.
The Archbishop also expressed doubts that there is any
Israeli political will to give more land back to the
Palestinians and he wondered aloud if Hizballah doesn't
provide Israel a convenient excuse not to.


9. (C) While Audi admitted he enjoyed the ardor surrounding
the Lebanese political season, he said he knew it would not
last. Election promises, he claimed, would be forgotten
within days of the election ending. It would be better, he
joked, if the election cycle could be every two years so the
Lebanese could at least benefit more frequently from
pre-election energy and development projects.


10. (C) Audi expressed appreciation for strong statements in
support of Lebanon made by Secretary of State Clinton and
U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Susan Rice.


11. (U) DAS Hale has cleared this cable.
SISON