LEBANON: ELECTIONS: GEMAYEL TELLS NEA DAS HALE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000536

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA
ALSO FOR IO A/S BRIMMER
P FOR DRUSSELL, RRANGASWAMY
USUN FOR WOLFF/GERMAIN/SCHEDLBAUER
NSC FOR SHAPIRO, MCDERMOTT
DOD/OSD FOR FLOURNOY/KAHL/DALTON
DRL/NESA FOR WHITMAN, BARGHOUT
OVP FOR HMUSTAFA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/13/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR UNSC MARR MOPS IS SY LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: ELECTIONS: GEMAYEL TELLS NEA DAS HALE
THE REAL ISSUE IS HIZBALLAH'S FUTURE

Classified By: Classified by Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.
4 (b) and (d)

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) In a May 9 meeting, visiting NEA DAS David Hale
discussed with former President Amine Gemayel the June 7
parliamentary elections and the possible consequences of a
Hizballah-controlled government. Gemayel's son Sami assessed
the election as a "tough race," and claimed Hizballah had
"limitless" funds for campaigning. Gemayel asserted that a
sovereign Lebanon was a threat to Syria's Alawite "junta,"
and warned that, despite Iranian and Syrian openness to
talking with the U.S. administration on other matters, the
two countries would never surrender their stake in Lebanon.
Gemayel said that Hizballah was nothing more than the
extension of the Iranian Republican Guard.


2. Gemayel was confident Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) leader
Michel Aoun would not sweep elections in Keserwan and Baabda,
but added that country-wide polling was inaccurate due to
some lists not being officially announced. Gemayel noted
relations between Aoun and Speaker Berri were not good and
Aoun was receiving Hizballah's full support over Berri.
Gemayel claimed that Armenians from the U.S. and Canada are
coming to Lebanon to bolster the vote in Beirut, Zahle, and
Metn. Gemayel disparagingly remarked that Christians were
"exhausted" from years of political battle, and it was their
attrition from a unified bloc that allowed Aoun to become a
formidable leader. End summary.

ELECTION THEME: HIZBALLAH'S FUTURE
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3. (C) In a May 9 meeting, visiting NEA DAS David Hale,
accompanied by the Ambassador and PolMilOff, met former
President Amine Gemayel, his son Sami, and two Kataeb Party
members at his Bikfaya residence. A strong-looking Gemayel,
home from the hospital after having arterial stints implanted
to relieve blockages in his heart, told Hale the essential
issue of the elections was the future of Hizballah. He
adamantly said Hizballah was more than an internal political
issue. He insisted Hizballah's leadership, equipment, and
strategy was Iranian, and Hizballah was nothing more than an
Iranian brigade on the coast of the Mediterranean. Hale
remarked that Hizballah's alliance in March 8 and with
Christians made the Hizballah threat even more complex.


4. (C) Gemayel cautioned that neither Syria nor Iran would
surrender their stakes in Lebanon. He said that, despite the
willingness of the Obama Administration to open talks with
the two countries, neither of them would compromise or give
up their influence in Lebanon. Gemayel believed a sovereign
Lebanon was a threat to the Syrian Alawite "junta," and it
would never leave.


5. (C) Gemayel opined that a March 8 election victory might
be a setback for U.S. policy in the region, however, it would
be a "catastrophe" for Lebanon. Hale replied that Lebanon
was indeed a U.S. national security interest. He added that
whenever Lebanon faced a crisis, Christian disunity and
confusion ensued and contributed to the "Aoun phenomena."
Gemayel agreed, saying Aoun had risen due to Christian
"attrition" from the previously more unified bloc.

WE WILL CONTINUE THE FIGHT
--------------


6. (C) Gemayel's son, Sami, running as a first-time candidate
in Metn, told Hale the election would be a "tough race."
Sami claimed, with Amine's affirmation, that Hizballah had
limitless funds for campaigning. "You feel the expenses,"
Sami remarked. Nevertheless, we will do our best he
concluded.


BEIRUT 00000536 002 OF 002



7. (C) Without all of the lists officially announced, polling
results provided an unclear picture, Gemayel said. Sami
added that in Zahle and north Metn, there could be some
surprises, and noted, the challenge is to protect your
strengths and push harder where you are weak. Gemayel
assessed that Jbeil was still a problem for March 14,
campaigning without a unified front. Something must be
worked out between Fares Souaid and Nazem Khoury soon,
Gemayel remarked. (Note: Independent candidate and former
advisor to President Michel Sleiman, Nazem Khoury formed a
list in Jbeil that excluded March 14 SYG Souaid, therein
splitting the anti-March 8 vote and harming them both. End
note.)


8. (C) Gemayel declared that Aoun would not win all five
seats in his own district of Keserwan, and in Baabda, Aoun
would not sweep its six seats. Tripoli presented no
problems, he remarked. Gemeyal indicated that a general
meeting of March 14 candidates was coming soon to discuss
strategy for the last 30 days before the election. (Comment:
As of May 11, we still had not heard the meeting was yet
scheduled. End comment.)

BERRI VS. AOUN
--------------


9. (C) Gemayel assessed that the rift between FPM leader Aoun
and Speaker Berri about voting lists in Jezzine was not
resolved and relations were not good. Gemayel believed
Hizballah controlled the Shia vote and it was giving its
backing to Aoun. Gemayel concluded Berri had no leverage
with Aoun over candidate issues and would have to accept the
fact that Aoun was Hizballah's man for the moment. (Note:
Aoun has not yet endorsed Berri to be the next Speaker. End
note.)

THE ARMENIANS ARE COMING!
--------------


10. (C) Gemayel noted to DAS Hale that 4000 Armenians were
reportedly coming to Lebanon from the U.S. (Los Angeles and
Boston) and Canada, and Gemayel sarcastically asked Hale if
he could stop them before they vote in Beirut I, Zahle and
Metn.

COMMENT
--------------


11. (C) Gemayel, along with Sami, exhibited a fighting spirit
discussing the elections, often missing with other March 14
interlocutors. End comment.
SISON