LEBANON: MARCH 14 MP HARB FEARS IRANIAN

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/11/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR SY IS IR LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: MARCH 14 MP HARB FEARS IRANIAN
INFLUENCE, SAYS AOUN "NAIVE"

Classified By: Classified by Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.
4
(b) and (d)

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) In a May 11 meeting, March 14 MP Boutros Harb told
Ambassador that the Iranian presence, through Hizballah,
created a situation in Lebanon worse than when Syria was in
control. He warned that Lebanon could not survive in this
present state of affairs. Harb called Free Patriotic
Movement (FPM) leader Michel Aoun "naive" about his
relationship with Hizballah, and speculated that Aoun would
be gone when Hizballah determined he was no longer useful.
Harb hoped President Michel Sleiman would display more
leadership on issues important to the country, saying Sleiman
needed the "right moment" to shine.


2. (C) Harb cautioned that March 14 and Future Movement
leader Saad Hariri was "inexperienced" and "did not have the
best people advising him." Harb noted that in contrast,
Hizballah's lists of candidates were meant to ensure that
aggressive "commanders" are elected. Harb was confident
about winning his own MP seat in Batroun. He mentioned a
"change in mood" by voters about Aoun in the villages of
Batroun, strengthening March 14. Harb warned that in
Keserwan, the Maronite Patriarch needed to work harder
supporting March 14 candidates. End summary.

LEBANON'S PROBLEM IS HIZBALLAH'S ARMS
--------------


3. (C) In a May 11 meeting at his residence, MP Boutros Harb
told the Ambassador, accompanied by PolMilOff, that
Hizballah's arms and its Iranian supporters would destroy
Lebanon if things did not change. He was despondent about
Iran's involvement, through Hizballah, in Lebanon's internal
politics. He believed Iranian involvement was a situation
"worse than when Syria was here." Harb warned that Lebanon
could not survive if controlled by Hizballah's threats and
use of force.


4. (C) Harb condemned "crazy" Free Patriotic Movement leader
Michel Aoun as "naive" in his relationship with Hizballah.
Harb surmised that Aoun cannot exploit Hizballah for
political gain. Rather, it is Hizballah that is exploiting
Aoun, and the group will dispose of Aoun politically when the
time is right, predicted Harb.


5. (C) Harb believed any announcement by Israel of its
possible withdrawal from northern Ghajar would not have any
effect on the June 7 parliamentary elections. What needs to
be exploited, he urged, was the ongoing rift between
Hizballah and Egypt over Hizballah operatives in Egypt. By
exploiting this, he said, voters would realize that Hizballah
is a regional menace and more threatening than just a
"resistance" force.

SLEIMAN NEEDS A MOMENT TO SHINE
--------------


6. (C) Harb criticized President Michel Sleiman's domestic
leadership and said Sleiman needed more "guts." Harb
acknowledged that Sleiman needs a "critical moment" to assert
himself. If Sleiman does not display stronger leadership in
the near future, he would succumb to the pressures of a
political landscape possibly controlled by a Hizballah-led
alliance, Harb assessed.

FORMER GENERAL JAMIL SAYYED:
A FUTURE POLITICAL ROLE?
--------------


7. (C) Ambassador Naji Abi Assi, Director General of the
Presidency, told us May 11 that Sleiman met three of the four
recently released generals -- Ali Hajj, Raymond Azara, and
Jamil Sayyed -- detained since 2005 in connection with former
PM Rafiq Hariri's assassination. The meeting was labeled a

BEIRUT 00000530 002 OF 002


"courtesy call" at the generals' request, Abi Assi said, and
carried no political agenda. Zahle independent political
figure Richard Jereissati told us later that Sayyed, a former
Surete General chief, is "protected" by current Surete
General officers and not by Hizballah. He noted that Sayyed
asked Hizballah to remove its operatives from around his home
in the Bekaa. According to Jereissati, Jamil Sayyed plans to
play a future political role and believes he is best
positioned to interface between Hizballah and the west.

ELECTION PREDICTIONS: BATROUN,
KESERWAN AND OTHER BATTLEGROUNDS
--------------


8. (C) Harb was confident about winning his seat in Batroun.
He worried, however, that March 14 ally and Lebanese Forces
candidate Tony Zahra would have serious competition for the
second seat. Harb also believed 10%-20% of voters in the
village of Batroun, a Aoun stronghold where Aoun's son-in law
(Telecommunications Minister Gebran Bassil) is running, are
moving their support away from Aoun. Harb called Bassil a
"liar," and remarked Bassil came into politics without money
and was now a very rich man. Harb said that while Aoun FPM
candidates Bassil and Fayeq Younes were campaigning on a
platform of anti-corruption, Harb's fight was for sovereignty
and against armed militias.


9. (C) Harb believed Maronite Patriarch Sfeir should work
harder supporting candidates in Keserwan, Aoun's home
district. (Note: Ambassador will call on Patriarch Sfeir on
May 14; he has been in Jordan with the Pope this week. End
note.) Harb said Sfeir should put more pressure on Nemat
Frem, a wealthy businessman who decided not to run in the
elections, to work on March 14's behalf by encouraging his
many employees to vote for the coalition. Harb also insisted
independent pro-March 14 candidate Mansour Ilbon would win a
seat. Harb concluded that on both sides, the candidate lists
were not "the best." Harb cautioned that Future Movement
leader Saad Hariri was inexperienced and did not have the
best people advising him.


10. (C) Harb said Hizballah had presented new faces to run
as candidates, such as Ali Ammar in Baabda, in an effort to
seat aggressive "commanders" in parliament. In Zahle, Harb
confidently predicted a split of Metn's eight seats between
March 14 and March 8. In battleground district Zahle, he
said he hoped March 14 would win three or four of the seven
seats.

SISON