Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09BEIRUT493
2009-04-30 12:03:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Beirut
Cable title:  

LEBANON: SIDON PARLIAMENTARY RACE SYMBOLIC FOR

Tags:  PREL PGOV PINR LE 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO3183
PP RUEHAG RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHDF RUEHDH RUEHIK RUEHKUK RUEHLZ RUEHROV
RUEHSR
DE RUEHLB #0493/01 1201203
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 301203Z APR 09
FM AMEMBASSY BEIRUT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4789
INFO RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE
RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 3716
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO 3913
RHMFIUU/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 000493 

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA
ALSO FOR IO ACTING A/S WARLICK
P FOR DRUSSELL
OVP FOR MUSTAFA
NSC FOR SHAPIRO, MCDERMOTT
DOD/OSD FOR FLOURNOY/KAHL/DALTON
DRL/NESA FOR WHITMAN, BARGHOUT

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: SIDON PARLIAMENTARY RACE SYMBOLIC FOR
BOTH SIDES

REF: A. BEIRUT 00485

B. BEIRUT 00482

C. BEIRUT 00200

SUMMARY
--------

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 000493

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA
ALSO FOR IO ACTING A/S WARLICK
P FOR DRUSSELL
OVP FOR MUSTAFA
NSC FOR SHAPIRO, MCDERMOTT
DOD/OSD FOR FLOURNOY/KAHL/DALTON
DRL/NESA FOR WHITMAN, BARGHOUT

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: SIDON PARLIAMENTARY RACE SYMBOLIC FOR
BOTH SIDES

REF: A. BEIRUT 00485

B. BEIRUT 00482

C. BEIRUT 00200

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (SBU) Pollsters expect the March 14 Sidon parliamentary
slate of Minister of Education Bahia Hariri and Prime
Minister Fouad Siniora to defeat opposition candidate Ossama
Saad, but the race between Siniora and Saad will be close.
Although only one seat is being contested in Sidon, the
victor will gain a much larger symbolic boost, as 2009
elections are the first without a pre-arranged Bahia
Hariri-Ossama Saad joint ticket in the district.
Additionally, the city's status as the largest city in
southern Lebanon and a key Sunni stronghold brings
significance for both sides.


2. (SBU) Several factors benefit each candidate in the race.
Siniora is an inexperienced campaigner, but March 14
financing will bolster his electoral efforts. Siniora is a
national political heavyweight, but Ossama Saad has a strong
local following that will support him at the polls. The
opposition also will play up Siniora's links to his Christian
March 14 allies, who are reportedly disliked in the Sunni
city. Security remains a key concern for election day, as
Sidon is a transit point for all voters traveling to southern
districts to cast their ballots. End summary.

NARROW VICTORY FOR FUTURE EXPECTED
--------------


3. (SBU) March 14 contacts and independent pollsters expect
the March 14 Sidon ticket of Minister of Education Bahia
Hariri and Prime Minister Fouad Siniora to win over Nasserite
Popular Organization (opposition) candidate Ossama Saad, but
all expect a tight race. The last elections held in Sidon,
2005 municipal elections, saw a 61 percent voter turnout, and
about the same (32-33,000 people) is expected for the
upcoming parliamentary election. Five to nine percent of
registered voters in Sidon are naturalized Palestinians,
according to the city's mayor.

IMPORTANT FOR HARIRI...
--------------


4. (SBU) Theories abound as to why, and how willingly, Prime
Minister Siniora threw his hat into the 2009 electoral race

in Sidon, but the tight electoral race country-wide makes
both Sidon seats important to ensure March 14 victory.
Siniora told the Ambassador April 27 he had not intended to
run for parliament, but circumstances made it "imperative"
that he do so (Ref A). Contacts point to Future Party leader
Saad Hariri's desire to reaffirm his role as the unrivaled
leader of Lebanon's Sunnis, especially after giving
concessions to his Sunni rivals in Tripoli -- the country's
other Sunni stronghol -- by forming a combined list.
Opposition mayorof Sidon Abed Bizri (a March 8
"independent") noed that former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri
lost Sidon's last municipal elections in 2005, despite
"political activism" -- paying funds and providing services
-- before the vote. Sidon's residents see Siniora as a tool
of Saad Hariri's, he said.


5. (SBU) Other arguments center on Saad Hariri's intention to
maintain "control" of Lebanon's premiership. Contacts,
including independent pollster Jawad Adra, speculate that
Saad Hariri cannot become prime minister as long as he
accuses Syria of killing his father. A Future Party sweep in
Sidon would reinforce Saad Hariri's authority over the Sunni
community and possibly allow him to insist on who the next
prime minister will be.


6. (SBU) Additionally, some say a solid hold on the Sunni
population could enable Hariri to wield an unofficial

BEIRUT 00000493 002 OF 003


sectarian "veto" in government decisions, in the event of an
opposition majority. Similar to the November 2006 decision
of the Shia ministers to stage a walk-out of cabinet and
freeze government operations, Hariri -- as reaffirmed
representative of the Sunni sect -- could insist that
government decisions have his stamp of approval.

BUT SYMBOLIC FOR OPPOSITION AS WELL
--------------


7. (SBU) Internal Security Forces (ISF) Director General
Ashraf Rifi argued that Sidon, as the northernmost point of
Lebanon's mostly Shia south, also is a symbol for the
opposition. Although the city is predominantly Sunni, it is
the largest city in southern Lebanon. An opposition defeat
there would weaken "the gate" that opens to the rest of its
southern stronghold, he emphasized to Ambassador in a recent
conversation.

CAMPAIGN EXPERIENCE, STATURE, AND MONEY
--------------


8. (SBU) Fouad Siniora and Ossama Saad are both relative
campaign rookies, but financial and electoral backing from
the Hariri family will benefit the Prime Minister. Siniora's
stature as Prime Minister will work in his favor, but Ossama
Saad has a strong local following that could make the battle
difficult for Siniora. Ossama Saad, who won seats in 2000
and 2005 running virtually unopposed, is feeling nervous
about his first "real" race for his seat, mayor and Ossama
Saad advisor Bizri told us.


9. (SBU) Ossama Saad has already sought to highlight
Siniora's campaign mistakes. Aware of Siniora's usual
security precautions, Ossama Saad's backers in early April
were waiting when Siniora's security detail -- including dogs
-- entered a mosque in Sidon before a campaign event. Ossama
Saad provided the video to local news sources, who promptly
broadcast Siniora's insult to Islam. When Siniora's security
team -- wiser to the media danger the dogs presented --
searched a Sidon church before a similar campaign event
without the animals, Ossama Saad publicly noted the
difference with which Siniora treated the two religions.

PLAYING UP OR DOWN LINKS WITH MARCH 14
--------------


10. (SBU) The opposition's political strategy will focus on
the absence of ties between Siniora and his mother city and
highlight Siniora's membership in the broader March 14
alliance. According to Mayor Bizri, some Sidon residents are
still missing relatives kidnapped by March 14 Samir Geagea's
Lebanese Forces (LF) during the civil war, so playing up
links between Siniora and his Christian allies will benefit
the opposition.


11. (SBU) The opposition also will highlight the relative
"accessibility" of the candidates, with Ossama Saad depicting
himself as the most accessible to Sidon residents. Fellow
Future Party candidate Education Minister Bahia Hariri
consistently has provided services in Sidon and was very
active in maintaining calm in Ain-el-Hilweh during the
January fighting in Gaza. However, Siniora has admitted that
he is starting from behind in terms of local outreach (Ref
B). He, however, is working to make up lost time and, in an
April 27 meeting with the Ambassador, highlighted his public
outreach in Sidon and enumerated his many development
projects in the area.


12. (SBU) Education Minister Bahia Hariri has told us her
strategy will minimize links with March 14 and instead
highlight Future Movement's, and her personal, involvement in
the city. Siniora, on the other hand, who was chosen as
Prime Minister by a majority March 14 government, will have
more difficulty distinguishing himself from the March 14
coalition.

BEIRUT 00000493 003 OF 003



ROLE OF JEMAA ISLAMIYA
--------------


13. (SBU) Although Jemaa Islamiya (JI) in previous elections
has allied with Hariri's Future Movement, the two sides thus
far have failed to reach an agreement regarding 2009
parliamentary elections. According to Nader Hariri, Saad
Hariri's cousin and advisor, JI insisted on two seats on
Future's lists, and Future would only agree to one. JI said
publicly it would not oppose Hariri by running on Saad's list
in Sidon, but the group could instruct followers to abstain
from voting on June 7. Contacts differ on how significant
JI support in Sidon is for a Hariri-Siniora victory.

CONCERNS ABOUT VIOLENCE
--------------


14. (SBU) ISF Director General Rifi expressed concern that
Sidon's position as an entry to southern Lebanon could make
it vulnerable to incidents of violence. The city is a
chokepoint for all Lebanese who will travel to southern
districts to vote on June 7. Additionally, an April 28
UNIFIL assessment noted Siniora's candidacy in Sidon has
angered Hizballah and the group had warned against "security
repercussions." Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, who is from
southern Lebanon, also worried that Siniora's candidacy would
spark violence in the volatile area around Sidon (Ref C).
However, Defense Minister Elias Murr told Ambassador April 30
that he had redeployed all eleven LAF brigades in advance of
the June 7 election, and had also redeployed the five LAF
command battalions. Murr also reported he had sent one
brigade (headed by a Sunni) and two commando battalions as
back-up for Sidon.

SISON