LEBANON: SPEAKER BERRI ON ELECTIONS, JUMBLATT,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 000482

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA
ALSO FOR P FOR DRUSSELL, RRANGASWAMY
DRL/NESA FOR WHITMAN, BARGHOUT
USUN FOR WOLFF/GERMAIN/SCHEDLBAUER
NSC FOR SHAPIRO, MCDERMOTT
OVP FOR HMUSTAFA
DOD/OSD FOR FLOURNOY/KAHL/DALTON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/22/2019
TAGS: PGOV ECON LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: SPEAKER BERRI ON ELECTIONS, JUMBLATT,
SINIORA

REF: A. BEIRUT 472

B. BEIRUT 466

C. BEIRUT 421

D. BEIRUT 222

Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) In an April 27 meeting with the Ambassador, Parliament
Speaker Nabih Berri said he had come to agreement with
Majority Leader Saad Hariri on a way forward in the Beirut 2
electoral district, but was still at an impasse with his
opposition Christian ally Michel Aoun on candidates in
Jezzine. Berri declared he had respect for Walid Jumblatt as
a politician, saying Jumblatt's leaked comments criticizing
his March 14 allies (Ref B) reflected his sensitivity to the
political winds of change. He criticized the feudal politics
of Lebanon and spoke of the importance of the army and
national policy initiatives as a means of breaking down the
tribal system. Berri said the election results would not
change the parliamentary balance much, based on current
alliances, but that he and Jumblatt might consider joining a
presidential bloc after the elections.


2. (C) Berri worried that PM Siniora's candidacy for a
parliamentary seat in Sidon would increase the likelihood of
violent clashes there. Berri said he did not understand why
PM Siniora had not put the 2009 budget on the cabinet agenda,
given that Berri and Finance Minister Chatah had come to
agreement on the budget for the Council for the South (Refs C
and D). He hypothesized that Siniora wanted to sabotage the
government. Berri believes nothing will come out of the
National Dialogue or parliamentary sessions before the
elections. He said he had told Arab League SYG Amre Moussa
that the Egyptians should stop their vocal criticisms of
Hizballah and let the Egyptian court system decide the fate
of Hizballah members arrested in Egypt, for the sake of
stability in Lebanon. Berri was positive about Secretary
Clinton's April 26 visit to Beirut, and appreciated her words
of support for free and fair elections. End summary.

STILL IN CONFLICT WITH AOUN
JUMBLATT A "FRIEND-ENEMY"
--------------


3. (C) The Ambassador, accompanied by Pol/EconOff, called on
Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri April 27 at his office in Ain
el-Tineh. Berri advisor Ali Hamdan also attended the
meeting. Berri said he had a successful meeting with March
14 Future Movement leader Saad Hariri on April 25, and they
agreed that they would work together to ensure the victory of
Future's Sunni candidate in the Beirut 2 district, per a pact
reached at Doha in May 2008 to split the four seats between
the current opposition and majority. Berri explained that
the current Sunni opposition MP in the district, Assem Araji,
has thus far refused to withdraw from the election. Berri
reassured Hariri that he would use his "electoral machine" in
favor of Hariri's candidate.


4. (C) Berri reported he was not making progress, however,
with his Christian ally Michel Aoun in determining the
opposition candidate list for Jezzine. Aoun wants to name
all three candidates for the all-Christian list, while Berri
stood behind the candidacy of current Amal MP Samir Azar.
Berri told the Ambassador that Azar is "the most powerful man
in Jezzine," with a reputation for integrity, and he would
not back down no matter how much Aoun insisted. "It is a
question of Aoun's ambition," exclaimed Berri. "He wants
everything, everything, everything!"


5. (C) Berri assessed that March 14 Druze leader Walid
Jumblatt's leaked comments criticizing his March 14 allies
(Ref B) were a political tactic, and expressed appreciation
for Jumblatt's skills as a politician, regardless of his

BEIRUT 00000482 002 OF 003


current alliances. "If your adversary is reasonable, you
cannot hate him," said Berri, "but if you have a friend who
is stupid, it is a problem," he added in a veiled reference
to Aoun. He called Jumblatt his "friend-enemy," with whom he
had a good relationship, and said it ws in Jumblatt's nature
to adapt to the politicalclimate, however it might change.
"In this case,I like the change, so why not?" asked Berri.


6. (C) Berri said he had attempted to cut a deal with Hariri
in Sidon as well, to continue the current arrangement in
which the majority and opposition split the seats in the
district, but Future decided to run both Bahia Hariri and PM
Fouad Siniora for Sidon's two seats, eschewing an
arrangement. Berri worried that Siniora's candidacy would
spark violence in the volatile area around Sidon, where the
Ain el-Hilwe Palestinian refugee camp lies. (Note:
Ambassador's 4/27 meeting with Siniora reported septel. End
note.)

FEUDAL POLITICS
--------------


7. (C) With regard to independent Shia figure Ahmad Al-Assad,
leader of the Lebanese Option Gathering (LOG),Berri said he
knew Assad himself was planning to run in Marjeyoun (Ref A).
Berri assessed, "he has a good chance... to lose!" Even
Assad's father opposed his candidacy, said Berri, and in any
event, Assad is not popular, as part of a feudal family that
dominated the south for 400 years. The Assads have been
around longer than the Jumblatts, Berri explained, and are
part of the feudal system.


8. (C) Berri pointed to recent events in the Bekaa Valley, in
which feuding families turned to violence to protect their
financial interests, often involving criminal smuggling or
drug production, as another problem associated with the
"tribal system" in Lebanon. He stressed that the Lebanese
state had ignored these areas. The only way to eliminate the
influence of these families was to strengthen the Lebanese
Armed Forces (LAF) and initiate state policies to support
development, offering people legitimate job opportunities and
stimulating the economy.

JUMBLATT AND BERRI WITH THE PRESIDENT?
--------------


9. (C) Berri said the June 7 parliamentary elections would be
very close, but ultimately only 2-4 seats would determine the
opposition and the majority. He was against the idea of
President Michel Sleiman backing his own slate of candidates
before the elections, but believed the President could gather
his own parliamentary bloc post-elections. "I am not against
that idea," he said. "Walid Jumblatt might join such a
group. I may join as well."

SINIORA BLOCKING THE BUDGET
NOTHING FROM PARLIAMENT,
NATIONAL DIALOGUE BEFORE ELECTIONS
--------------


10. (C) Berri noted that after numerous meetings with PM
Siniora over the budget for the Council for the South, he had
worked with Finance Minister Chatah and found a compromise
that could move the 2009 budget forward in the cabinet (Refs
C and D). He was perplexed as to why the cabinet had not yet
voted on the issue, and theorized that PM Siniora was
determined to make the current government a failure, to
discredit the concept of the opposition's blocking third in
the cabinet. He claimed he had asked Siniora following the
May 2008 Doha agreement to work with him to accomplish the
country's objectives during the year-long tenure of the
current government, but he had not been cooperative.
Meanwhile, Berri expounded on the Council's assistance
projects not just in the south, but all over Lebanon, serving
all confessions. He showed the Ambassador a letter from
Sunni mayors in the West Bekaa, advocating for the
continuation of Council for the South projects there.

BEIRUT 00000482 003 OF 003




11. (C) Berri remarked that he had not been able to keep a
quorum in parliament sessions over the past month, and
objected to March 14's absence from the sessions because of
its opposition to a proposed law eliminating the gasoline
excise tax. He said the majority could at least attend the
sessions to pass other legislation, and they could leave
immediately before a vote if the excise tax made it to the
top of the agenda. Regardless, he was not hopeful the
parliament could achieve a quorum during the next session on
May 7, and added that if that is the case, he will not call
further sessions before the elections.


12. (C) Similarly, Berri predicted that the National Dialogue
would not show any results before the elections. He said he
had told Hariri during their meeting that he would not object
to the suspension of the Dialogue until after the elections.
(Note: The April 28 National Dialogue session adjourned
without fanfare; the participants called for holding the June
7 elections in a calm and democratic atmosphere. A seventh
round will be held June 1. End note.)

SECRETARY'S VISIT
--------------


13. (C) Berri spoke positively about Secretary Clinton's
April 26 visit to Beirut and her message in support of
transparent elections free from interference and
intimidation. He particularly appreciated that she met with
President Sleiman, showing support for the institution of the
presidency.

CALMING THE RHETORIC
BETWEEN EGYPT AND HIZBALLAH
--------------


14. (C) Berri said he had spoken to Arab League SYG Amre
Moussa during Moussa's April 25 visit to Beirut. With regard
to the arrest of members of an alleged Hizballah cell in
Cairo, Berri noted he had passed the same message to Moussa
as he had passed to Egyptian President Mubarak through other
channels: Egypt should calm its rhetoric against Hizballah,
and simply pursue the case against the cell members through
the Egyptian justice system. Berri reported he had stressed
to Moussa that continued harsh words on both sides could
threaten Lebanon's stability.

COMMENT
--------------


15. (C) Berri's kind words about Walid Jumblatt and the
Secretary's visit, his criticism of Aoun, his "moderate"
language about the importance of strengthening the LAF, as
well as his acknowledgment that he is considering joining a
presidential parliamentary bloc after the elections suggest
he may be positioning himself already for the post-election
scenario. At this point, he and Jumblatt appear to be
keeping their options open. However, Berri was careful to
avoid saying anything that might have been construed as
critical to Hizballah. End comment.

SISON