LEBANON: FORTY-FIVE DAYS AND COUNTING TO ELECTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000466

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA
ALSO FOR P FOR DRUSSELL, RRANGASWAMY
DRL/NESA FOR WHITMAN, BARGHOUT
USUN FOR WOLFF/GERMAIN/SCHEDLBAUER
NSC FOR SHAPIRO, MCDERMOTT
DOD/OSD FOR FLOURNOY/KAHL/DALTON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/22/2019
TAGS: PGOV PTER LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: FORTY-FIVE DAYS AND COUNTING TO ELECTION
DAY

REF: A. BEIRUT DAILY MEDIA SUMMARY APRIL 21 2009

B. BEIRUT 445

C. BEIRUT 426

D. BEIRUT 325

E. BEIRUT 185

Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Over the weekend of April 18-19, pro-opposition New TV
aired footage of March 14 Druze leader Walid Jumblatt making
comments criticizing his March 14 allies Samir Geagea and
Saad Hariri, while simultaneously insulting all Maronite
Christians and the Sunni fighters who battled Hizballah
during the May 7, 2008 clashes in West Beirut. The episode
caused a major stir in Lebanese politics, while the major
March 14 Christian leaders -- Samir Geagea and Amine Gemayel
-- continued bickering over candidates for parliamentary
seats. End summary.

JUMBLATT STEPS OFF THE RESERVATION
MARCH 14 STILL SQUABBLING
--------------


2. (SBU) In a meeting with Druze clerics, Walid Jumblatt was
recorded -- reportedly surreptitiously, on the cell phone of
a meeting attendee -- making comments lambasting his March 14
allies (Ref A). He accused Lebanese Forces' leader Samir
Geagea of working against his allies to "isolate" himself and
his constituency, and referred to Geagea and Kataeb leader
Amine Gemayel as part of "a bad race," i.e., the Maronites.
He described Future Movement Sunni leader Saad Hariri as
"still new," and complained that the 1000 Future Party Sunnis
who came to Beirut from Akkar in May 2008 to fight Hizballah
"did not last 15 minutes." He suggested that the Christians
and Sunnis had tried to push the Druze into a fight with the
Shia. While Jumblatt later held a press conference on April
22 to try to explain his comments, he did not retract them.
The video was leaked the weekend of April 18-19 and shown
once on New TV, but was not aired again, though it made the
rounds on YouTube. Most Lebanese we have spoken to have seen
it.


3. (C) Although Saad Hariri told us April 23 that Jumblatt
was still with the March 14 coalition (septel),others
believe Jumblatt may be positioning himself for a shift.
Jumblatt recently opined that "elections are an important
phase, but more important is the post-election phase." He
has expressed concern at Lebanon's polarization, and has
promoted reconciliation as a means of avoiding Druze-Shia
conflict.


4. (C) Meanwhile, the Christian March 14 leaders have
continued to squabble over which of them will present
candidates for parliamentary seats in certain key districts,
and several well-respected candidates have been sidelined or
have withdrawn as a result of the horse-trading. The April
17 withdrawal of prominent Christian March 14 figure Nassib
Lahoud from the parliamentary race in the Metn was seen as a
particularly hard blow to March 14 (Ref B).

REACTIONS TO THE MELTDOWN:
FROM FURY TO GLEE
--------------


5. (C) Many reacted angrily to Jumblatt's comments. Future
MP Azzam Dandashi of Akkar spoke out publicly in defense of
the offended youth of his region and called on Jumblatt to
apologize. In an op-ed in Ad-Diyar newspaper,
Editor-in-Chief Charles Ayoub was incredulous that Jumblatt's
Maronite allies -- Geagea and Gemayel -- had not reacted to
his insults. He attacked Jumblatt, asking, "Isn't the number
of Christians you slaughtered during the war on the mountain
enough?" In an April 21 dinner with the Ambassador, Kataeb
MP Solange Gemayel was livid with Jumblatt and wondered aloud

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whether his comments were an intentional plot to blow apart
March 14 once and for all. March 14 Finance Minister
Mohammad Chatah told the Ambassador April 21 that Jumblatt
had been preparing to "redraw the political lines" for some
time, probably in an attempt to guarantee the survival of his
Druze leadership and of his Druze community. "Regardless of
the reasons," said Chatah, "it's bad."


6. (C) Reaction from the opposition was gleeful. In public
statements April 20, Michel Aoun said, "We watch comfortably
as the March 14 ranks grow weaker." On April 18, Ali Hamdan,
senior advisor to Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, laughed to
EconOff about Jumblatt's criticisms of his allies, saying
that while harshly presented, they were true: "I told
General Aoun recently, you should keep Geagea and Gemayel
around, make sure they get just a few seats, because you
could not ask for more stupid opponents than they are."

FOCUS ON POST-ELECTION SCENARIOS
--------------


7. (C) Finance Minister Chatah assessed that changing
political currents may make traditional Lebanese polling and
seat counting irrelevant, because various individuals and
party blocs -- including Jumblatt's, as well as Tripoli
heavyweights Najib Mikati and Mohammed Safadi -- could decide
to ally with either side following the election. The central
issue, according to Chatah, is not who wins or loses, but
what kind of government will be formed after June 7: another
national unity government, or a government based on majority
rule (Ref D).


8. (C) He noted that the Hizballah-led opposition is calling
for a unity government with full participation by all
political and confessional groups, which Chatah believed
would lead to the same paralysis seen in the current
government, with no party accountable for the lack of
government action. Such a system lends legitimacy to
Hizballah, he said, and allows the group to act as it
pleases, since its presence in the cabinet prevents the
government from condemning its actions. Chatah believed it
important that the new parliamentary majority form a
government on its own, regardless of which side wins the
elections, to allow the opposition and the people to hold the
government accountable. If Hizballah demands a unity
government, said Chatah, it might be preferable at least to
increase the number of ministers the president nominates (now
3 of the 30) to create a bloc of independent cabinet members
large enough to overcome deadlock on controversial votes.

SECURITY PREPARATIONS IN PLACE
--------------


9. (C) As of mid-April, Statistics Lebanon polls predict 56
seats for March 14, 53 seats for March 8, and 19
undetermined. Another polling firm, Information
International, predicts that the current opposition will take
61 seats and March 14 57 seats, with ten seats too close to
call. With the competition close in several districts, there
have been few instances of election-related violence so far.
In an April 22 meeting with the Ambassador, International
Security Forces (ISF) Commander General Ashraf Rifi said the
ISF, coordinating with the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF),has
completed comprehensive security preparations for election
day. Rifi said he is particularly focused on Zahle, Tripoli
(specifically, the Bab el-Tabaneh and Jabl Mohsen areas),and
Sidon as sites where violence could break out. Rifi expects
any security incidents to be localized, lasting no more than
three or four days.

SISON