LEBANON: MARCH 14 CHRISTIANS STILL FACE INTERNAL CHALLENGES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 BEIRUT 000445
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E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/15/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR EG SY LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: MARCH 14 CHRISTIANS STILL FACE INTERNAL CHALLENGES
REF: A. BEIRUT 434

B. 2008 BEIRUT 1455

C. 2008 BEIRUT 759

Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) After several days of negotiations with fellow March
14 Christians Michel Murr and Amine Gemayel on the Metn
district, candidate Nassib Lahoud pulled out of the race on
April 17, telling Ambassador that his two fellow coalition
leaders had not "given him what he needed" to contest the
election. Lahoud also reported that President Sleiman had
(unsuccessfully) tried to change Lahoud´s mind. Meanwhile,
Lebanese Forces (LF) leader Samir Geagea assured us that the
March 14 alliance is close to finalizing its candidate lists
for the June 7 parliamentary elections. Pointing out that
differences between his party and Amine Gemayel´s Kataeb
party have been entirely resolved ("at LF´s expense"),Geagea
said that March 14´s prospects were good in Batroun, Koura,
and Metn districts, but it faced challenges in Keserwan,
Zahle, and Baabda. Praising the firm U.S. policy on
Hizballah, Geagea noted that Hizballah was "behaving" in its
stronghold Baalbeck, but had violated state sovereignty by
sending Hizballah members illegally into Egypt. Looking
ahead to the next government, Geagea suggested that March 14
think hard about whether incumbent Speaker Nabih Berri should
stay on and also whether prospective candidate Saad Hariri
should become the prime minister, arguing that March 14
should condition Berri´s appointment, and could convince
March 8 to give up its demand for a blocking third in the
cabinet if independent figure Najib Mikati were instead the
next PM. End summary.

NASSIB LAHOUD ENDS CANDIDACY
--------------


2. (C) In April 14 and 15 conversations with Ambassador,
independent Christian March 14 leader Nassib Lahoud
complained about fellow Metn Christian leaders Michel Murr
and Amine Gemayel, noting that they wished to form candidate
lists without input from others such as himself. After
several days of negotiations with Murr and Gemayel, Lahoud,
a Minister of State in the current government and head of the
Democratic Renewal Movement, pulled out of the Metn electoral
race on April 17. He told Ambassador on April 17 that
President Sleiman had met with him the day before in an
effort to persuade him to remain a candidate, but that his
frustration with Murr and Gemayel had led him to this
decision. Lahoud nonetheless vowed to continue to work for
the cause of Lebanon´s democracy. Lahoud also told
Ambassador that March 14 needed to improve its messaging on
transparency and accountability as Free Patriotic Movement
leaders and opposition Christian Michel Aoun has effectively
campaigned on this platform, although March 14 embodies the
same principles. Lahoud also observed that President
Sleiman´s recent comments to the media about strengthening
the role of the President in Lebanon stemmed from Sleiman´s
desire to counter Aoun´s claims that Sleiman was not
"legitimately" elected. Lahoud thought that the time was
perhaps not right for Sleiman to raise the issue.

MARCH 14 CANDIDATE LISTS
"75 PERCENT" COMPLETE
--------------


3. (C) The Ambassador, accompanied by PolOff, met with
Lebanese Forces (LF) leader Samir Geagea and his aides Elie
Khoury and Joseph Nehme on April 16 at Geagea´s headquarters
in Maarab. Ambassador remarked that the Embassy had
commemorated earlier in the day the 26th anniversary of the
April 18, 1983 Embassy bombing. Geagea recalled that on that
day he had been surrounded by the forces of his then enemy,
now March 14 political ally, Walid Jumblatt, in the "War of
the Mountains" in the village of Deir Qamar in the Chouf.


4. (C) According to Geagea, Jumblatt is firmly in the March
14 camp, but is "hedging his bets." "Like all of us," Geagea
said, "Jumblatt feels the consequences of March 14
mismanagement."


5. (C) Noting that the four March 14 leaders (majority leader
Saad Hariri, former president and Kataeb leader Amine
Gemayel, Jumblatt, and himself) had not met as a group since
April 2, Geagea calculated that they have resolved "70 to 80"
percent of their disputes in forming the candidates´ lists
for the June 7 parliamentary elections. All of the conflicts
between Kataeb and LF have been resolved, he said, adding "at
our expense" under his breath, and now he is meeting with
Saad to finalize the list for the northern district Akkar
where, he argued, LF has a strong presence.


6. (C) The Ambassador urged Geagea to continue focusing on
the big picture for March 14, rather than on individual party
gains. Geagea requested that the Ambassador try to convince
March 14 member and independent Chouf candidate Ghattas
Khoury (Ref A) to withdraw his candidacy because he was
competing against the other March 14 candidates.


7. (C) Listing the districts where he expected March 14 to do
well -- Batroun, Koura, Metn -- Geagea highlighted Keserwan,
Zahle, and Baabda as areas where March 14 faced challenges.
He suggested that prominent industrialist and independent
figure Nemat Frem, who decided against becoming a candidate
himself, could nonetheless play an important role in uniting
the competing March 14 and independent candidates in Keserwan
by supporting March 14.


8. (C) Geagea said that Baabda was problematic because
despite a "respectable March 14 list," the Aounists and
Hizballah supporters outnumber March 14 followers. Geagea
was fairly confident that Education Minister and MP Bahiya
Hariri would retain her seat in Sidon, and PM Fouad Siniora
would win the second seat, but warned, "Beware of Sidon." He
explained that the local constituency can play a big role in
Sidon, pointing out that former PM Rafiq Hariri´s list
surprisingly lost in the 2004 municipality elections. He
added that Saad still needed to negotiate with Jamaa
Islamiya, which felt it lost a seat to Siniora´s candidacy in
Sidon, and is hoping Saad will "award" the group with a seat
in another district.

THOUSANDS OF EXPATS
WILL RETURN TO VOTE
--------------


9. (C) Noting that his wife, MP Setrida Geagea, and LF member
and Environment Minister Tony Karam have been encouraging
Lebanese expatriates from North America, Europe, and the Gulf
to vote in Lebanon, Geagea estimated that thousands will
vote, particularly in key districts such as Zgharta, Zahle,
and Batroun. He added that there are thousands of Sunni
Lebanese living in Syria who would come to vote in the
elections, but would likely "be influenced" by the Syrian
regime. Geagea privately confided to the Ambassador that
March 14 has run out of money.

HIZBALLAH INNOCENT IN BAALBECK,
STIRRING UP TROUBLE IN EGYPT
--------------


10. (C) Commending the U.S. for its firm policy stance on
Hizballah, Geagea suggested that the U.S. refrain from
attacking March 8 in the lead-up to the elections, and
instead aim to clarify that its position on Hizballah is not
linked to the elections. Addressing clashes between the
Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) and the drug-related criminals in
Baalbeck starting April 13, Geagea absolved Hizballah of all
blame, commenting that despite its heavy presence in the
area, Hizballah is staying out of the conflict.
BEIRUT 00000445 003 OF 004


11. (C) Geagea was unconcerned about the Syrian troop buildup
along the border, saying that it was in support of the LAF´s
action against the drug criminals. (Comment: This is a
marked contrast from October 2008, when Geagea feared an
imminent Syrian invasion after its troops deployed along the
northern Lebanon border to fight smuggling, Ref B. End
comment.)


12. (C) However, Geagea said, Hizballah violated Egypt´s
state sovereignty by sending Hizballah members illegally into
Egypt. Even if they were only intending to help the
Palestinians, Geagea assessed, it was wrong. However,
Egypt´s threat to arrest Hizballah SYG Hassan Nasrallah and
his deputy Sheikh Naim Qassem was "a declaration of war" and
would provoke some sort of response from Hizballah, he
believed.


13. (C) Geagea wondered whether the Egyptians would ask for
the halting of the transmission of Hizballah´s television
station al-Manar, which is broadcast by the satellite
Nilesat, partially owned by the Egyptian government. (Note:
Information Minister Tareq Mitri told the Ambassador that the
Egyptian information Minister and the Egyptian ambassador had
asked Mitri to shut down al-Manar. Mitri said he responded
that al-Manar was broadcast by the Nilesat satellite,
partially owned by th Egyptian government. End note.)

NOT RIGHT TIM FOR PRESIDENT
TO EXPAND HIS POWERS
--------------


14. (C) Noting that President Michel Sleiman spoke about
strengthening the role of the president, Geagea said Sleiman
is "not a leader" and his proposal would not amount to
anything because Sleiman would not secure a two-thirds
majority in parliament required to amend the constitution.

THINKING ABOUT A NEW PM,
A NEW SPEAKER
--------------


15. (C) Geagea said he anticipated that Sleiman would name
the next Interior and Defense ministers because March 8 and
March 14 would not be able to agree on which alliance should
name these key posts. "Almost everyone is happy with
(current Interior Minister Ziad) Baroud and (current Defense
Minister Elias) Murr," Geagea said, expecting that both men
would stay on in their position. Geagea praised Minister of
State Youssef Taqla, who was the third minister named by
Sleiman. The time it takes to form a new cabinet will depend
on the outcome of the elections, Geagea stated.


16. (C) "We should not assume that (Speaker Nabih) Berri
stays on as speaker, or that Saad is the next PM," Geagea
said with conviction. At a minimum, he proposed, March 14
should condition acceptance of Berri on certain points, such
as requiring that parliament stay open. (Note: Berri
refused to convene parliament to elect a president in
2007-08. End note.)


17. (C) Geagea posited that March 14 members needed to
discuss at length whether Saad is the best option for the
next PM. He pointed out that March 14 could get concessions
from March 8, such as no insistence on having a blocking
third in the cabinet, if it agreed to name independent figure
and former PM Najib Mikati as the next PM. (Comment:
Geagea´s hesitation to support Saad´s premiership is not new;
in May 2008, he lobbied hard to keep Siniora as PM, instead
of Saad -- Ref C. End comment.)

COMMENT
--------------


18. (C) While we hear conflicting reports on how close March
14 is to finalizing its candidate lists, we do not perceive a
sense of urgency on the part of Geagea or the other March 14
leaders. Geagea said that even the April 21 deadline to
withdraw candidacy is meant only to enable those who withdraw
to obtain the 2,000 USD refund, but candidates could withdraw
up until the last minute. We will continue to urge March 14
figures to work for the benefit of the whole team, rather
than individual parties or candidates. Nassib Lahoud´s
predicamen is not a good development. One of March 14´s
mst respected Christian leaders, Lahoud is a former Lebanese
Ambassador to the United States and one of the coalition´s
most thoughtful members. His decision to pull out of the
Metn race bodes ill for March 14´s ability to maintain
cohesion among its Christian ranks. End comment.
SISON