LEBANON: MIKATI CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC ABOUT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 000443

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA
ALSO FOR IO ACTING A/S WARLICK
P FOR DRUSSELL
STATE PASS TO OVP FOR HMUSTAFA
USUN FOR WOLFF/GERMAIN/SCHEDLBAUER
NSC FOR SHAPIRO, MCDERMOTT
DOD/OSD FOR FLOURNOY/KAHL/DALTON
DRL/NESA FOR WHITMAN, BARGHOUT

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/14/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR PTER LE SY EG
SUBJECT: LEBANON: MIKATI CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC ABOUT
ELECTORAL OUTCOME, BUT SAYS RACE WILL BE CLOSE

REF: A. BEIRUT 427

B. BEIRUT 247

Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Former Prime Minister Najib Mikati told the Ambassador
April 14 that he had compromised with March 14 majority
leader Saad Hariri on the candidate list in Tripoli, saying
it was far better for the two to work together rather than
compete at the expense of the Sunni-dominated community.
Mikati predicted March 14 would fare well in the June 7
parliamentary elections, although the race would be close.
Opposition Christian leader Michel Aoun's popularity was
still high, he assessed. Mikati said that President Sleiman
needed a core group of eight to ten independent MPs to
support him and to work towards strengthening the capacity of
state institutions. With the post-electoral timeline, Mikati
explained, it was not likely that the new government would be
in place before mid-July. On regional issues, Mikati worried
that Egypt would create problems for Lebanon if Egypt pushed
to have Hizballah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah placed
on Interpol's wanted persons list. He was supportive of
President Obama's outreach to the Arab world and believed the
response should be positive. End summary.

ELECTIONS
--------------


2. (C) Former Prime Minister and independent parliamentary
candidate in the June 7 elections Najib Mikati told the
Ambassador and Poloff April 14 that he would compromise with
the candidates of Sunni majority leader Saad Hariri and join
Hariri's list in Tripoli. Mikati, a wealthy Sunni business
leader from Tripoli, said it was better to seek compromise --
"even if it was wrong" -- for the good of the Sunni
community. He chose to enter the race to present a moderate
image of Tripoli, he declared. In his district, Mikati said
he was most concerned that the Alawite candidate on Hariri's
Future party slate was weak and not a candidate the Alawite
community would support. This could be the beginning of a
problem that could lead to electoral violence between
Tripoli's Sunni and Alawite sects, he said.


3. (C) Mikati predicted that Hariri and his March 14
coalition would fare well in the elections, although the
outcome would be very close. He said current PM Fouad
Siniora would not have an easy task in winning his electoral
bid in Saida, but would be successful. Mikati cautioned,
however, that opposition Christian leader Michel Aoun's
popularity was still high and that many Christian voters
"have an appetite" for his rhetoric. He said Aoun and his
Free Patriotic Movement candidates might win a "good number"
of seats.


4. (C) Mikati complained that the electoral law was "very
severe" in its restrictions on campaign advertising and
spending. To avoid penalties, he said he requested
supporters take down some of his posters in Tripoli. (Note:
During the Ambassador's April 6 visit to Tripoli, ref A,
posters for Mikati, Minister of Economy and Trade Safadi, and
Saad Hariri were visible on almost every corner. End note.)
Mikati did not view as a problem the Cabinet's delay in
appointing the five remaining judges to the constitutional
court. The five judges already appointed by parliament, he
said, were all well-qualified for the position. (Note: The
constitutional court is the legal body responsible for
adjudicating electoral disputes. It requires the appointment
of ten judges, five by the cabinet and five by parliament,
before it can begin its work. Political disputes have
blocked the formation of the court -- ref B. End note.)

WHAT SLEIMAN NEEDS

BEIRUT 00000443 002 OF 003


--------------


5. (C) Mikati observed that the process of state-building was
difficult. He said an April 13 attack on a Lebanese Armed
Forces (LAF) patrol in the Bekaa valley proved that "curing"
one institution was not enough, if the others were still
"sick," such as the Justice Ministry or the Internal Security
Forces (the police). He called President Sleiman "wise," and
credited him for acting as an arbitrator between Lebanon's
political factions. If the electoral outcome produced a
moderate majority, including a group of eight to ten
independents, then Sleiman would be strengthened, he
theorized. Among the independents, Mikati believed that he,
current Minister of Culture Tammam Salaam (Sunni),and
presidential advisor Nazem Khoury (Christian) were among
those who could bring about this change.


6. (C) Opposition-aligned Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri,
he assessed, also would support "real initiatives" to
strengthen the Lebanese state. Recalling his long
relationship with Berri, Mikati characterized Berri as the
most competent person in the Amal party. Sleiman would also
benefit from a cabinet that included ministers who were not
slaves to their political parties, but believed in
strengthening state institutions. Mikati suggested that the
ideal number of cabinet ministers should be 18-19, rather
than the current 30. The reduced number, he explained, could
provide Sleiman a good team that worked well together.
(Note: When Mikati was Prime Minister for three months in
2005, there were 14 ministerial posts. He said he ultimately
judged the number inadequate, as some ministers had to carry
double portfolios. End note.)


7. (C) Mikati assessed that nothing would change unless all
of Lebanon's political factions committed to real change. He
said it was unrealistic to expect this change overnight, but
maintained that change could be possible over the long-term.

POST-ELECTION TIMELINE
--------------


8. (C) Mikati predicted the following post-election timeline:
-- The current parliament's mandate would terminate on June
30 (others have told us June 19/20).
-- On July 1, a caretaker government would begin.
-- July 2 or 3, parliament would meet to elect a Speaker.
-- Following the election of Speaker of Parliament, the
President would begin the process of cabinet formation,
beginning by asking a presumptive prime minister to seek to
form a government.


9. (C) Mikati noted the speed of the government's formation
would depend on the results of the parliamentary elections.
He said President Sleiman shared his views about the need to
focus on state building, and both rejected the idea of "the
blocking third." (Note: Currently, Hizballah and the
opposition have a blocking third in the cabinet (ten plus one
ministerial seats). This veto power was a concession that
resulted from the May 2008 Doha Accord that ended the
political crisis and paved the way for the election of
compromise candidate Michel Sleiman. End note.)

REGIONAL OUTLOOK
--------------


10. (C) Turning to regional issues, Mikati said the
escalation in tensions between Egypt and Hizballah was
"serious." Mikati supported Egypt's plan to prosecute
suspected Hizballah operatives in Egypt. However, if Egypt
planned to have Hizballah leader Hassan Nasrallah listed as a
wanted person through Interpol, it would create huge problems
and headaches for Lebanon, Mikati worried.


11. (C) Mikati said the Arab world and Iran should not "lose
the opportunity" with President Obama. He called President
Obama's April 6 speech in Turkey "great" and suggested that

BEIRUT 00000443 003 OF 003


regional governments should respond positively to these
friendly messages. Mikati observed that Syrian President
Bashar Asad had matured since he first took office in 2000
and had become more practical.

COMMENT
--------------


12. (C) Mikati did not raise the prospect of his becoming
prime minister at this meeting, although he is clearly
positioning himself as a compromise choice no matter which
side wins a majority of parliamentary seats. He continues to
be viewed by many as too close to Damascus, although he is
nonetheless widely respected for his business acumen and
international reputation. Mikati's assessment of the post
election timeline makes sense to us, which may mean no new
government until mid-July at the earliest. End Comment.

SISON