Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09BEIRUT427
2009-04-13 13:22:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Beirut
Cable title:  

LEBANON: TRIPOLI: HARIRI'S CANDIDATE LIST NEARLY

Tags:  PREL PGOV PINR LE SY 
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PP RUEHAG RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHKUK RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHLB #0427/01 1031322
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 131322Z APR 09
FM AMEMBASSY BEIRUT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4667
INFO RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE
RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 3660
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO 3860
RHMFISS/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 000427 

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA
ALSO FOR IO ACTING A/S WARLICK
P FOR DRUSSELL
USUN FOR WOLFF/GERMAIN/SCHEDLBAUER
NSC FOR SHAPIRO, MCDERMOTT
DOD/OSD FOR FLOURNOY/KAHL/DALTON
DRL/NESA FOR WHITMAN, BARGHOUT

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/10/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR LE SY
SUBJECT: LEBANON: TRIPOLI: HARIRI'S CANDIDATE LIST NEARLY
COMPLETE, BUT RAISES QUESTIONS

REF: A. BEIRUT 401

B. BEIRUT 154

Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).

SUMMARY AND COMMENT
-------------------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 000427

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA
ALSO FOR IO ACTING A/S WARLICK
P FOR DRUSSELL
USUN FOR WOLFF/GERMAIN/SCHEDLBAUER
NSC FOR SHAPIRO, MCDERMOTT
DOD/OSD FOR FLOURNOY/KAHL/DALTON
DRL/NESA FOR WHITMAN, BARGHOUT

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/10/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR LE SY
SUBJECT: LEBANON: TRIPOLI: HARIRI'S CANDIDATE LIST NEARLY
COMPLETE, BUT RAISES QUESTIONS

REF: A. BEIRUT 401

B. BEIRUT 154

Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).

SUMMARY AND COMMENT
--------------


1. (C) March 14 coalition-allied Tripoli MPs Moustafa
Allouch and Mosbah al Ahdab, in separate meetings, told the
Ambassador that Saad Hariri's candidate list for the
district was nearly complete. Allouch, with good grace and
laughter, called himself "a victim," but said he was not
upset to be dropped from the list if it was for the good of
March 14. Ahdab, meanwhile, said he was confident of his
ability to retain his MP slot, whether on Hariri's list or
not. Both Allouch and Ahdab affirmed that the ultimate
composition of the list would fair well if it included
representatives known and respected by Tripolitans. Ahdab,
however, assessed that Hariri was losing his influence in
Tripoli and in the north. The electoral outcome was
difficult to predict, but Allouch said a repeat of the
status quo was the most realistic scenario, although he did
not discount the possibility that the opposition March 8
alliance could make gains.


2. (C) Tripoli's status as a historical gateway to Syria
and the Sunni heart of Lebanon put it at the crossroads of
larger regional attempts at reconciliation and detente.
Local issues such as high unemployment and poverty could
push rival sectarian communities towards violence, although
the situation was calm, Allouch and Ahdab said. To
demonstrate continued U.S. assistance to Tripolitans, the
Ambassador announced the selection of Tripoli NGO, Maakum,
as a recipient of one of the first U.S. Embassy Small
Grants. We assess the electoral outcome in Tripoli will be
a barometer of Saad Hariri's ability to unify the March 14
coalition. End summary and comment.

HARIRI: MAKING THE
RIGHT OVERTURES TO TRIPOLITANS?
--------------


3. (C) Current Future Movement MP Moustafa Allouch, a

practicing surgeon, told the Ambassador and Poloff April 6
that he was not "hurt" by Sunni majority leader Saad
Hariri's decision to drop Allouch as a candidate on his
electoral list for the June 7 parliamentary elections.
(Note: Candidate registration closed on April 7. End
note.) Allouch, a member of Hariri's Future Movement since
1998 and an MP since 2005, said he was willing to step
aside if that was best for "the party and the good of the
March 14 coalition." He said he and Hariri share many of
the same beliefs, although Hariri was not as "firm" with
others, as Allouch believed he should be. Confirming what
Hariri told the Ambassador April 3 (ref A),Allouch said
the Future/March 14 candidate list for Tripoli was decided
and not a big problem.


4. (C) Allouch predicted a three-way electoral alliance
between Hariri, current Minister of Economy and Trade
Mohammad Safadi, and former PM Najib Mikati would lead to
low voter turnout (20 to 25 percent) in Tripoli, which
should be interpreted as a sign of confidence, he said.
However, if the alliance broke down before the election, he
predicted a much higher turnout, closQ to 45 percent.


5. (C) On April 8, however, independent but March 14-allied
Tripoli MP Mosbah al Ahdab told the Ambassador that he
believed Saad Hariri was "being used" by his so-called
allies, and was actually losing his influence in Tripoli
and in the north. Ahdab, a maverick in March 14 but who
claims to maintain good relations with Hariri, said his
candidacy in Tripoli was assured, whether on or off of
Hariri's list. Ahdab called Hariri's decision to drop
Allouch from the list a "big mistake."

BEIRUT 00000427 002 OF 003




6. (C) Ahdab also suggested Safadi (another independent)
and Mikati (independent, but pro-Syrian) are in competition
with each other, and bringing Samir Saadeh, an outsider
from Batroun, to the candidate list in Tripoli for the
Maronite seat was a miscalculation. Others rumored to be
on Hariri's Tripoli list, such as businessman Robert Fadl
(Greek Catholic) and current Tripoli (Sunni) MPs Mohammad
Kabbara and Samir Jisr, are "not really" Hariri's people,
Ahdab accused.


7. (C) Both Allouch and Ahdab defended the character of
Tripolitans and said that politically, those who represent
Tripoli need to have a relationship with the people of
Tripoli. Ahdab said he had no idea who was Hariri's
advisor for the north, but claimed Hariri was struggling
there because he had neither a strong presence nor a strong
electoral machine.

THE CRYSTAL BALL:
ELECTORAL OUTCOME PREDICTIONS
--------------


8. (C) When asked about predictions for the outcome of the
parliamentary elections, Allouch said that in the best case
scenario, March 14 would win a majority with less than 50
percent of the 128 parliamentary seats, the opposition
March 8/Aoun alliance would remain in the minority with
less than 40 percent, and the remainder would be
independents. The more realistic scenario, he said, was a
repeat of the status quo. However, the recent political
statements of March 14 Druze leader Walid Jumblatt were
"dangerous" for the coalition, he said. (Note: Jumblatt's
recent statements suggested internal friction among March
14's leaders. Local media portrayed the statements as
hints to Jumblatt's possible defection from the coalition,
which he denies -- septel. End note.)


9. (C) Allouch said it was possible that Hizballah's March
8 alliance could win a majority. Should that occur, he
said he would not be surprised if members of March 14
decided to join a national unity government, although
Allouch opposed this idea.


10. (C) For his part, Ahdab was confident about his own
success. He also said that if March 14 won a majority, he
would not accept not being offered a cabinet position.
(Note: During the July 2008 government formation,
negotiations between Hariri and Ahdab broke down, and Ahdab
was not offered a ministerial spot. Ahdab took the slight
personally and relations between the two continue to be
rocky. End note.)

TRIPOLI CAUGHT AT THE CROSSROADS
--------------


11. (C) Historically, Tripoli is a social and economic
gateway for Lebanon to its regional neighbors, notably
Syria and Saudi Arabia. Both continue to play a role in
Lebanon's politics, as Hariri is viewed as the "Saudi's
choice" for Sunni leader, and Syria has close ties to
several of Tripoli's political and business elite,
including Mikati and former PM Omar Karami. Ahdab
characterized the results of recent overtures of
reconciliation and detente between Tripoli's different
sectarian communities (Sunni, Alawite, Christian, etc.) as
symbolic of Lebanon's ability to maintain sovereign,
mutually beneficial relations with other regional players,
especially Syria.


12. (C) Meanwhile, High unemployment and poverty are the
immediate local concerns that could spark proxy clashes
between Tripoli's rival communities, such as Sunni Bab el
Tabbaneh and Alawite Jabal Mohssen (ref B),Allouch said.
The security situation in Tripoli was currently calm, he
continued, but could play a role in the elections if new
clashes erupt. He assessed that neither the Lebanese Armed

BEIRUT 00000427 003 OF 003


Forces (LAF) (the military) nor the Internal Security
Forces (ISF) (the police) would have the appetite to
intervene to stop such violence. He assessed that neither
the LAF nor ISF were ready to accept casualties of their
own members nor of the civilian population.

U.S. EXPANDS ASSISTANCE TO TRIPOLI
--------------


13. (SBU) During the April 6 visit to Tripoli, the
Ambassador announced the selection of local NGO Maakum as a
recipient of a USD 51,000 Embassy Small Grant for
vocational training of youth. Maakum, registered as an
official NGO in 2005, focuses many of its programs on
disadvantaged youth, including vocational training,
education, and support services.

COMMENT
--------------


14. (C) We assess Saad Hariri's efforts to finalize his
candidate list in Tripoli to be in its final stages.
However, as Ahdab noted, several of the likely contenders
on the list are not necessarily committed to Future
Movement or March 14. Several contacts and local press are
mystified by the Hariri's plan to take Samir Saadeh on his
Tripoli list and do not support the idea. While deals on
electoral alliances are being cut in each electoral
district, results in Tripoli will be a key barometer of the
appeal of March 14's message and Hariri's ability to unify
his coalition.


SISON