LEBANON: DEFMIN MURR MAKES A PLEA FOR MORE U.S.

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 000400

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA
ALSO FOR PM ACTING A/S RUGGIERO
P FOR DRUSSELL, RRANGASWAMY
USUN FOR WOLFF/GERMAIN/SCHEDLBAUER
NSC FOR SHAPIRO, MCDERMOTT
DOD/OSD FOR FLOURNOY/KAHL/DALTON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/05/2019
TAGS: PREL MCAP PGOV PTER PINR MARR MOPS LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: DEFMIN MURR MAKES A PLEA FOR MORE U.S.
MILITARY SUPPORT, DISCUSSES UPCOMING ELECTIONS

REF: A. BEIRUT 383

B. BEIRUT 373

C. BEIRUT 235

D. 2008 BEIRUT 1780

Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) On the eve of his trip to Washington, Defense Minister
Elias Murr discussed the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) many
successes and credited U.S. military assistance. Deeply
appreciative of U.S. support, Murr, a leader within Lebanon's
Greek Orthodox community, made a plea for an additional
close-air support deliverable to demonstrate to moderate
Lebanese Christians (whose votes key swing districts are
expected to determine the outcome of the June 7 parliamentary
elections) and continued U.S. support for the moderates in
Lebanon. Noting that Russia remained intent on providing
MiG-29 fighter aircraft to the LAF, Murr remained firm that
Lebanon would not accept this delivery "before 2040." Backed
up by poll results, Murr predicted that his father, MP Michel
Murr, and seven allied March 14 candidates in the key Metn
district would defeat Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel
Aoun by winning all eight seats, if/if neutral voting
officials manned the polling places. Murr was less certain
in other districts, criticizing several of the March 14
leaders for internal bickering over seats. According to
Murr, President Michel Sleiman was disappointed independent
Christian candidates were pulling out of the race and was
also feeling increasingly frustrated with Hizballah. End
summary.

LAF SUCCESSES ARISING
FROM U.S. SUPPORT
--------------


2. (C) The Ambassador, accompanied by PolOff, met with
Defense Minister Elias Murr at his home in Rabieh April 4, on
the eve of Murr's departure for Washington. They spoke of
the many successes resulting from the U.S. assistance to the
Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF),including the LAF's ongoing
counterterrorism efforts, its work in Nahr al-Barid and other
Palestinian refugee camps, its joint patrols with UNIFIL and
implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701 in
controlling the area south of the Litani River, the LAF
Common Border Force plan in curbing weapons smuggling from
the northern and eastern borders, and the destruction of Man
Portable Air Defense System (MANPADS) missiles in LAF depots
(Ref B). Murr also mentioned the LAF's perfect record of
end-use accountability.

MURR MAKES A PLEA FOR ANOTHER
DELIVERABLE FROM THE U.S.
--------------


3. (C) Looking forward to meeting SecDef Gates and other U.S.
officials in Washington, Murr noted that he would be the
first Christian political figure from the Middle East to go
to Washington since Obama's election. Appreciative of the
anticipated May shipment of military equipment from the U.S.
(Ref C) and the impending arrival of the Caravan, Murr made a
plea for the announcement of an additional close-air support
deliverable from the U.S. during his trip. Murr requested
"some sort of aviation to sell to Christian voters during the
elections." He clarified that he knew it was unreasonable to
expect an actual deliverable before the June 7 parliamentary
elections, but argued that an announcement of something to
come from the U.S. would be ideal in demonstrating continued
U.S. support for the moderates in Lebanon. He also suggested
that a U.S. push for UAE provision of 10 Hawks (from the
UAE's inventory of 30 Hawks to be retired) would be welcome.



4. (C) Murr feared Hizballah and Free Patriotic Movement
opposition Christian leader Michel Aoun would attack him in
the headlines if he returned from the U.S. "empty-handed."

BEIRUT 00000400 002 OF 003


He stressed that he remained firmly opposed to Hizballah,
saying, "I paid too much to change my policy," referring to
the 2005 assassination attempt against him. The Ambassador
and Murr also discussed ongoing counterterrorism cooperation.

RUSSIA STILL INTENT
TO GIVE MIG-29S
--------------


5. (C) Murr relayed that the Russian Defense Minister wants
to visit Lebanon. He added that the Russians have been
asking when the LAF officers would go to Russia for training
on the MiG-29s it offered to the LAF in December (Ref D).
Murr said he had already begun hinting to the Russians that
he did not want the fighter aircraft. He reiterated to the
Ambassador that Lebanon would not be accepting the MiG-29s
for a long time, "not before 2040!" he stressed.

EXPECTS MARCH 14
TO WIN METN
--------------


6. (C) Murr is the scion of the Metn district's pre-eminent
political family. Metn remains a critical electoral
district, Murr reasoned, explaining that if March 14 can win
the seven of eight seats Aoun's bloc currently holds in Metn,
it will retain the majority in parliament. Murr argued that
if Aoun lost the Metn seats, it would give President Michel
Sleiman the ability to form his own bloc of parliamentarians
post-election. This could lead to division of the 30 seats
in the next cabinet on the basis of ten-ten-ten (March 14,
March 8, and President Sleiman).


7. (C) Producing a "house-by-house" poll his father, MP
Michel Murr, had conducted on April 1 in their Metn district,
Murr concluded that his father's list would win by 6,000
votes over Aoun's list. He said the Murrs would not publish
the results so that Aoun would continue to believe he would
win seven of the district's eight seats (the eighth going to
Michel Murr).

MARCH 14
INTERNAL FRICTION
--------------


8. (C) Expressing cautious optimism about March 14's overall
prospects in the elections, Murr noted with approval that
majority leader Saad Hariri had become much more focused on
the elections recently. However, he said, Druze leader Walid
Jumblatt has been "hurting March 14 in the Christian regions"
because of his perceived overtures to Hizballah. Sighing, he
added, "We would win it all if (Kataeb leader and former
president Amine) Gemayel and (Lebanese Forces leader Samir)
Geagea were not involved -- people do not like either of
them."


9. (C) Murr said he was concerned that March 14 still had not
decided which candidates would run for each district. It
needed to happen soon, he argued, so that March 14 could
focus on putting out its message -- that voters will be
choosing between an army, a government and a republic (March
14),or an army within an army, a government within a
government and a state within a state (Hizballah-led
opposition.) Murr claimed that Saad Hariri had not yet
received campaign financing from the Saudis and wondered
whether the Saudis were stalling or had decided to forgo
financing March 14's campaign.

CONCERNED ABOUT NEUTRALITY
OF POLLING STATIONS
--------------


10. (C) Worried about the neutrality of those operating the
polling places on election day, Murr said he will request
from the Interior Ministry the names of all of the employees
nominated to work at Metn's polling places. He said he
wanted to make sure that Aoun supporters do not try to derail
the process by, for example, finding fault with legitimate

BEIRUT 00000400 003 OF 003


identification cards. He would check all of the names with
the LAF G-2 (military intelligence),he said, before
approving their appointments.

SLEIMAN: "I WILL FIGHT
HIZBALLAH TO THE END"
--------------


11. (C) Recounting a recent conversation with President
Sleiman, Murr said that the president was disappointed that
the independent Christians were choosing not to run in the
election, citing prominent industrialist Nemat Frem in
particular. Sleiman reportedly conveyed to Murr his
frustration with Hizballah, saying, "I will fight Hizballah
to the end." Murr said he sensed a change in Sleiman's
attitude toward Hizballah from when he was LAF Commander and
believes that Sleiman is feeling increasingly hindered by
Hizballah, hence the hardening of his attitude.


12. (C) Murr posited that Sleiman had expected Hizballah
would not compete strongly against the President's former
aide, Nazem Khoury, for a seat in Jbeil district. Sleiman
realized now, however, that Hizballah would not make such an
agreement and would strongly support its political ally
Michel Aoun against Christian candidates, including Khoury.
Sleiman saw that Hizballah's only "gift" to Sleiman was the
presidency, Murr said. Murr claimed that Interior Minister
Ziad Baroud had been making frequent visits to Michel Aoun's
residence, which is near Murr's. When he passed this
information on to Sleiman, Murr said, the president
threatened Baroud with making him resign. (Note: Baroud and
Murr hold two of the three ministries appointed by the
president. End note.)
SISON