LEBANON: SENATOR KERRY AND PM SINIORA DISCUSS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000203

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA
ALSO FOR I/O PDAS WARLICK
P FOR DRUSSELL AND RRANGASWAMY
USUN FOR WOLFF/GERMAIN/SCHEDLBAUER
NSC FOR SHAPIRO, MCDERMOTT

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/02/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV LE IR SY IS WE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: SENATOR KERRY AND PM SINIORA DISCUSS
REGIONAL POLITICS

Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) In a February 18 luncheon with Senator John Kerry,
Prime Minister Fouad Siniora expressed Lebanon's desire for
engagement with Syria, and support for U.S. engagement, on
the condition that Syria recognize Lebanon's sovereignty and
deliver on previous promises. He assessed that the Iranian
revolution led to the spread of radicalization across the
region. Though he said Iran retains considerable clout in
Lebanon through its relationship with Hizballah, he believed
the economic situation in Iran might force it to reduce its
financial support. He posited that Israel's behavior,
particularly with the Palestinians, has also increased
radicalization across the Muslim world, and he encouraged the
U.S. to push its ally to cease counterproductive military
actions and settlement expansion. Siniora stressed the
importance of international observers in the upcoming
parliamentary elections in Lebanon, and said that while the
election would not result in a landslide, March 14 was
confident that it had the support of the people.


2. (C) Senator Kerry assured Siniora that Lebanon's
sovereignty would not be sacrificed in any U.S. engagement
with Syria. He pointed to the appointment of former Senator
George Mitchell as special envoy for the Middle East Peace
Process as evidence of a renewed and serious commitment to
peace between Israelis and Palestinians. End summary.


3. (C) Senator John Kerry, accompanied by his wife Teresa
Heinz Kerry, Ambassador, and DCM, lunched with PM Siniora and
his wife Houda at the Grand Serail February 18. Information
Minister Tariq Mitri, Siniora advisor Rola Noureddine, Senate
Foreign Relations Committee staffers Frank Lowenstein and
Perry Cammack, as well as LCDR Greg Kausner and PolEconOffs,
also attended the luncheon.

"THE SYRIANS ARE TOUGH --
LIKE THE MERCHANT OF VENICE"
--------------


4. (C) Siniora explained to Senator Kerry that Lebanon has
suffered throughout its history from attacks on its
sovereignty, culminating in Syria receiving a "mandate" in
Lebanon from "the external powers" in 1976. The difficulty
now, he said, is in convincing Syria that Lebanon is now
truly independent: "The Syrian regime does not believe in
our independence -- and I understand why, after thirty years.
But they just have to get used to it." Siniora said he was
in favor of U.S. engagement with Syria, but on the proper
terms, with no "advance payment." Kerry asked what
deliverables he should demand from Syria when he travels
there. Siniora listed them rapidly: control of the borders,
closing the Palestinian military camps on the border,
delineation of the borders (particularly Sheba'a Farms),
return of Lebanese detainees held in Syria, and appointment
of a Syrian ambassador to Lebanon.


5. (C) Siniora warned that the Syrians are tough negotiators
-- "like the Merchant of Venice" -- but believed they were
willing to talk now because of their concern over increasing
coordination among Shia and Sunni fundamentalist groups,
something that could be a threat to the Syrian regime. He
noted that Syrian President Bashar Asad had reached out to
Saudi Arabia, but was rash in denouncing the Arab Peace
Initiative, and then had to backtrack. "I hope he gets
better with maturity," commented Siniora.


6. (C) Senator Kerry said he and his Senate and Congressional
colleagues were clear that any engagement with Syria would
under no circumstances be at the sacrifice of Lebanon's
sovereignty. He clarified that he advocated engagement not
as a reward for bad behavior, but because he believes lack of
engagement works to the disadvantage of the United States.
He added that he hoped Asad would interpret U.S. outreach
"responsibly."

BEIRUT 00000203 002 OF 002



IRAN:
EXPORTING REVOLUTION
--------------


7. (C) Siniora assessed that the 1979 Iranian revolution
began a period where Iran "hijacked" the causes of the
region, portraying itself as the only defender of the weak in
the name of Islam. This effort to export the revolution, he
claimed, has led to radicalization across the region.
Nonetheless, he believed Iranian regime's approval of the
candidacy of former Iranian President Mohammad Khatami in
this year's presidential elections signals a recognition by
the regime that the people of Iran are dissatisfied in the
face of financial ruin. Meanwhile, said Siniora, there are
rumors that Hizballah, through which Iran retains
considerable clout in Lebanon, may be preparing for the
drying up of Iranian funding, given the economic situation in
Iran.

"SPARTA WAS A NUCLEAR POWER"
--------------


8. (C) Siniora described the feeling of defeat and resentment
toward the West in much of the Muslim world, and said the
most vivid representation of this was the plight of the
Palestinians, something that is "in the heart of all
Muslims." He declared that despite all the international
efforts to resolve the crisis, the fact that Israel continued
-- with U.S. support -- brutal military attacks on
Palestinian civilians and settlement expansion in the West
Bank has caused the resentment to accumulate, radicalizing
the people. He also noted the mistakes he claimed the
Israelis had made in Lebanon, invading in 1982 in an attempt
to destroy the PLO, only to "plant the seeds of Hizballah,"
and attempting to destroy Hizballah in 2006, only making them
stronger.


9. (C) Siniora stated that such Israeli behavior also serves
to discredit Arab moderates, as demonstrated during the
recent Gaza crisis, when Iran successfully attacked the
Palestinian Authority and the Egyptian government, sapping
their credibility and calling them Israeli collaborators. He
warned that Israel's tactics were not helping the cause of
peace. He was incredulous at Israeli rejection of the 2002
Arab Peace Initiative, remarking that it offered a chance of
peace for Israel with every Muslim nation in the world.


10. (C) Senator Kerry responded that the new administration
in Washington is committed to resolving the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict. He pointed to the appointment
of George Mitchell as special envoy to the region as evidence
of the USG's seriousness, and he noted that his colleagues in
the House and Senate, many of whom had been working on Middle
East issues for years, understood the issues and were ready
to engage constructively with both sides to bring about peace.

"THE PEOPLE ARE COMMITTED TO OUR VISION"
--------------


11. (C) Kerry asked Siniora how the U.S. could be helpful in
ensuring the success of Lebanon's June parliamentary
elections. Siniora stressed that the U.S. should support the
democratic will of the people, helping to ensure transparency
through international observers. Senator Kerry pledged to
follow up. Siniora confirmed that March 14 would ally with
independent candidates for the election, and was confident
about the alliance's prospects. "It will not be a
landslide," he said, "but we are hopeful." He noted that the
February 14 rally marking the fourth anniversary of Rafiq
Hariri's death had been a big success, saying, "It is clear
the people are committed to our vision."


12. (SBU) Senator Kerry did not have an opportunity to clear
this cable.

SISON