Mantis 2009 (2 of 2): Unpredictable Delays Harm Business,

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIJING 000687

STATE FOR CA/VO/L/C, EAP/CM, EEB/CBA, EEB/ESC, ISN/CB, L, OES
STATE PASS NASA/OFFICE OF EXTERNAL RELATIONS FOR A/S O'BRIEN
TOKYO FOR NASA ATTACHE TILMAN

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: CMGT CVIS ETTC OEXC ECON ENRG EINV TRGY KNNP KSCA
CH

SUBJECT: Mantis 2009 (2 of 2): Unpredictable Delays Harm Business,
Public Diplomacy in Beijing

REF: A) Knechtges 02/27/2009 email (NOTAL); B) Beijing 435, Beijing
130, 08 Beijing 3055, 08 Shanghai 133; C) Beijing 532; D) 08 State
60209, State 021417; E) 08 Beijing 3116, 08 State 91593

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NOT FOR INTERNET DISTRIBUTION


1. (SBU) Summary: This cable draws preliminary conclusions on 2009
Mantis Security Advisory Opinion (SAO) processing trends, based on
the first 5 months of the fiscal year. Current lengthy SAO
processing delays undermine Consular Section public outreach
efforts. Expediting 2009 student and scholar Mantis SAO cases will
be paramount to ensuring timely arrivals in the United States.
China Mission appreciates recent increases in Mantis SAO visa
validity and provides the following data to support the Department's
efforts to resolve SAO processing problems. End Summary.

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Unpredictable Processing Times Undermine Our Credibility
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2. Per email guidance from CA/VO (Ref A),Beijing's Non-Immigrant
Visa Unit (NIV) is no longer submitting B1/B2 SAO requests for
applicants with technical backgrounds planning travel to the United
States before June 29, 2009 (see paragraph 8).


3. (SBU) Mantis clearance wait times have quadrupled from February
2008 to March 2009, and doubled from 8 weeks in November 2008 to 16
weeks in March 2009. Due to unpredictable increases in wait times,
Beijing NIV is unable to predict whether any Chinese B1/B2, H1B or L
traveler will be cleared in time to meet travel deadlines,
regardless of when applicants plan to travel to the United States.
Post has reported extensively on the economic costs of these delays
(Ref B).


4. For example, some travelers applied in November without enough
advance time and were told to re-apply at least 10 weeks in advance
of their next trip. They did so in February, and learned 10 weeks
was now insufficient; they would still miss their May trip.
Although we are now turning away applicants with inflexible travel
dates before June 29 with no plans for future U.S. travel,
experience suggests the wait time will continue to grow and some of
applicants subject to Mantis processing will miss their July
meetings and conferences.


5. Consular Section public credibility is undermined when applicants
follow our instructions only to get burned twice. Similarly, our
MFA and business contacts question whether we were really listening
when they raised this issue with us in August, November, and again
in January. We assured them Washington was extremely concerned and
working on the problem, but our contacts have observed no
improvement, only deteriorating conditions.

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Uncertainty Costs Opportunities for Students
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6. U.S. Embassy Beijing conducted extensive student outreach across

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China in 2008 (Ref C),encouraging students that the U.S. is open
for education. This message is undermined by lengthy Mantis SAO
wait times.


7. (SBU) Beijing appreciates the fast tracking of J1 and F1
applicants and understands the Department hopes to process these
cases within 30 days. In August 2008 and January 2009, we estimate
several hundred Chinese graduate students, professors, and scholars
waited more than 30 days and missed their fall/spring semester start
dates despite fast-tracked processing (Ref D).


8. We continue to advise all students to apply as early as
possible, and offer all students expedited appointments. In
reality, most schools issue I-20s only 2-3 months before the start
of classes, preventing students from applying early enough to
accommodate the unpredictable wait for SAO clearance. Those who are
allowed to enroll late may find limited course options or lose out
on employment opportunities such as graduate assistantships. This
catch-22 discourages technology students from graduate study in the
United States, as it becomes nearly impossible for them to plan
their studies. According to media reports and family members, many
students already in the United States do not return to China for
family visits, as they rationally fear visa delays will impact their
research.


9. We predict student and scholar Mantis SAO volume in 2009 will
increase, as in years past. From FY 2007 to FY 2008, F1 student
applications increased at a rate of 28 percent. January and
February 2009 numbers indicate F1 and J1 are the only visa classes
that seem immune to the economic recession in our consular district
(full 2008 and 2009 visa statistics and 2008 Mantis trends coming
separate cable).

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Business Trips Canceled
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10. (SBU) Since October 1, 2008, Beijing has turned away more than
700 business travelers with inflexible dates of travel at the time
of their interview due to SAO delays. This includes 214 applicants
turned away from mid-February to Mid-March; the longer the wait
time, the more people Post must turn away. Per septel, Post
requests guidance on how new Mantis policies will affect this trend.



11. (SBU) In February 2009, Beijing NIV turned away 25 percent of
all B1/B2 business travelers with a technology background and no SAO
requests for these applicants were transmitted for clearance. Many
were shocked to hear they must apply at least 4 months in advance of
travel.


12. (SBU) The Department recently errored out 147 pending SAOs for
travelers who already missed technology-related conferences or other
fixed-date travel due to SAO delays. Many of these applicants
applied in October, November and December for January and February
2009 conferences. We estimate another 1000 business-related (H1B,
B1/B2, L) applicants with pending clearance requests have canceled

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or postponed travel to the United States, while countless others
self-selected out of the process and held meetings in China or third
countries to avoid U.S. visa delays. Countless additional travelers
eventually cleared for visa issuance do not reschedule U.S. travel.


13. (SBU) In the past several weeks, business visa clearances have
come to a near standstill, and numbers of pending SAOs are
increasing. Post understands that CA/VO is working with clearing
partners to address this increasing backlog, and appreciates recent
CA/VO communications on efforts to address delays.

Piccuta